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07:00
Jun 03
Jun 03
EWY 1ST
WTI
▾
HIGH
Korea trade is a no-brainer
Bullish on Korea as a country trade due to parabolic growth in semiconductors and exports, historically cheap valuations (P/E of 6 post-ceasefire), and the entire economy thriving. It is a no-brainer trade that has worked and remains cheap.
EWY LONG
Oil prices face upward pressure
Expects oil prices to face upward pressure in late July/early August as SPR releases by the US and China run down. These releases previously offset inventory holes, but are finite. The market is giving the benefit of the doubt, but physical realities will need to be dealt with.
WTI WATCH
HIGH
12:15
May 29
May 29
ETH
BTC FLIP
▾
HIGH
Ethereum is uninvestable in current environment.
Ethereum's token price does not capture growing network usage. Even long-time believers like David Hoffman have sold, citing the asset as uninvestable. The market structure is corrupted by Ponzi-like dynamics, and capital is flowing to AI infrastructure and away from crypto. The macro environment is unfavorable for crypto assets.
ETH AVOID
Bitcoin's macro environment is unfavorable.
Bitcoin is in a bear market. Macro conditions and market environment are not right for it to perform well. Capital is being sucked into AI infrastructure, similar to gold miners losing to tech in 2012. Artificial demand from financial engineering masks underlying weakness.
BTC AVOID
HIGH
14:00
May 21
May 21
Forward Guidance
13d
TLT FLIP
SOFR futures
QQQ
XLE 1ST
▾
HIGH
Short bonds on persistent inflation
Persistent inflation above 3.5% and soon above 4%, structural damage from energy price spikes, and lack of meaningful decline in inflation until back half of the year support short bond positioning. This was the highest conviction trade over the last few weeks, executed via TLT puts.
TLT SHORT
Long SOFR futures for rate cuts
If yields continue rising, it will curb stocks and economic growth, eventually forcing rate cuts. Positioning for that scenario by going long SOFR futures (a bet on lower short-term rates) is an emerging idea tied to a steepening yield curve and a potential correction.
SOFR futures LONG
Nasdaq may top on IPO supply
A wave of massive IPOs (SpaceX, OpenAI, etc.) totaling trillions in market cap will come to market starting in a few weeks. This will absorb liquidity from tech exposure, causing the Nasdaq to potentially top out relative to the rest of the market.
QQQ WATCH
Long energy sector for cash flows
US oil and gas companies are printing cash from higher oil prices, have improved balance sheets, and are buying back stock, making the sector a strong performer. The strategic reserve drain and geopolitical risks support elevated oil prices, benefiting XLE.
XLE LONG
HIGH
07:00
May 15
May 15
Forward Guidance
20d
NVDA
TLT
XLE
▾
HIGH
Watch NVDA on China chip sales.
If Nvidia is permitted to sell chips into China (even legacy models), it would significantly extend the runway for Nvidia's revenue and earnings, directly supporting equity indices that are heavily benchmarked to the stock. This is a catalyst worth watching closely, given the ongoing US-China summit negotiations.
NVDA WATCH
Short TLT as bond yield hedge.
Shorting long-duration bonds (via TLT or equivalents) is a direct hedge against the structural forces pushing yields higher: persistent inflation, strong growth, and Fed reluctance to tighten. The speaker argues that all the suppression and easing by policymakers makes the long-end problem worse, so short bonds profit from the eventual market-driven repricing.
TLT SHORT
Long XLE for inflation and growth hedge.
XLE (energy sector ETF) benefits from the current regime of elevated inflation and strong nominal growth, while also acting as a hedge against the risks of tighter monetary policy. The speaker is explicitly long XLE as a core position, citing its risk-adjusted outperformance in similar past environments.
XLE LONG
HIGH
07:00
May 13
May 13
07:00
May 08
May 08
Forward Guidance
27d
GLD
BTC FLIP
CL1!
▾
HIGH
Gold bullish on China buying and inflation.
China is aggressively buying gold again, inflation is set to rise while the Fed remains sidelined, and midterm uncertainty provides additional catalysts. Gold should outperform in this environment.
GLD LONG
Sell Bitcoin, buy gold on catalysts.
Gold has strong catalysts from China buying, inflation, and policy uncertainty, while Bitcoin lacks similar support. Selling Bitcoin to buy gold is a favorable rotation.
BTC SHORT
Oil futures long due to depleting inventories.
Oil inventories are being drawn down rapidly due to exports and the Strait of Hormuz disruption, and restocking will drive prices higher. Longer-dated futures offer attractive carry and a structural floor, while selling long-dated puts monetizes elevated volatility.
CL1! LONG
HIGH
07:00
May 06
May 06
Forward Guidance
29d
COPPER 1ST
GLD 1ST
SILVER 1ST
DBA 1ST
VIX 1ST
▾
MED
Long copper for supply chain shortages.
Supply chain disruptions and demand for data centers make copper a critical commodity in short supply. It is likely to outperform as a real asset play.
COPPER LONG
Avoid gold and silver.
Gold and silver have had a great run as dollar replacements, but the current supply-chain-driven inflation cycle does not favor them. They are unlikely to participate much further.
GLD AVOID
SILVER AVOID
Long agriculture commodities like sugar and wheat.
Agriculture commodities such as sugar and wheat are in short supply due to supply chain issues and are needed in the economy. They offer a long opportunity.
DBA LONG
Bet on higher volatility, long VIX.
With the VIX low and markets moving 1–1.5% daily, betting on higher volatility is a sensible hedge. The VIX can't go much lower and the melt-up environment increases tail risks.
VIX LONG
Hedge with oil upside.
Oil is a critical supply shock that could lead to much higher prices if the disruption persists. He recommends hedging portfolios with oil upside exposure to protect against the inflationary and growth impacts.
WTI LONG
MED
07:00
Apr 30
Apr 30
Forward Guidance
1mo
EWJ 1ST
USD/JPY
BNO 1ST
WTI FLIP
DBC 1ST
▾
HIGH
Short yen, bonds, NASDAQ on Japan crisis.
Japan's unsustainable fiscal position, negative real rates, and inflation shock from the oil crisis make it impossible to defend USD/JPY at 160. This will cause a breakdown in global carry trades, leading to higher bond yields, a stronger dollar, and a selloff in risk assets. The most asymmetric positioning is to be short yen (long USD/JPY), short U.S. 30-year bonds, and short NASDAQ (or Japanese equities), as these will all benefit from the unwind.
EWJ SHORT
USD/JPY LONG
US 30-year Treasury SHORT
QQQ SHORT
Prefer Brent over WTI due export ban.
With a potential U.S. crude export ban likely to suppress domestic WTI prices and boost international Brent, the most asymmetric positioning is to favor international producers and Brent over domestic U.S. producers and WTI.
BNO LONG
WTI SHORT
Own gold and commodities for intervention.
As the pain from rising yields and inflation becomes too great, authorities will step in, causing hard assets like gold and commodities to take the next leg higher. Owning them is a hedge against the regime shift.
DBC LONG
GOLD LONG
Long December crude on supply issues.
Given the supply issues and volatility from Trump's tweets, a better way to play the oil supply crunch is to buy longer-dated crude oil futures (like December) to avoid whipsaw and capture the structural supply deficit as reserves deplete and producers remain under-incentivized.
CLF24 LONG
HIGH
07:00
Apr 24
Apr 24
Forward Guidance
1mo
GOLD
Crude Oil December futures
AIQ 1ST
USD/JPY
DXY
▾
HIGH
Gold needed if inflation allowed.
If policymakers choose to suppress the dollar and allow inflation to run, investors need to own gold and hard assets to preserve purchasing power. The structural imbalance between capital and labor, plus ongoing fiscal stimulus, supports a long gold position as a macro hedge.
GOLD LONG
Long December oil as hedge.
Long December oil contracts as a barbell hedge against long compute positions. The oil supply shock from geopolitical tensions (Iran) and strong economic data support higher oil prices. December contracts are still elevated and provide protection if inflation pressures force a policy error.
Crude Oil December futures LONG
AI infrastructure multi-year secular growth.
AI capex boom is a multi-year secular growth driver that is reshaping the economy. The demand for data centers and compute infrastructure is creating a sustained investment cycle that will last years. While short-term positioning is overbought and due for a washout, long-term holders in shares can benefit from the structural trend.
AIQ LONG
Yen to weaken past 160.
The yen will weaken past 160 due to Japan's heavy reliance on energy imports, the oil shock, and the Bank of Japan's limited ability to defend the currency. A break above 160 would likely trigger a dollar wrecking ball scenario and cause credit stress, but the fundamental flow is for yen weakness.
USD/JPY LONG
Dollar to strengthen further.
The US dollar is putting in a massive base and will move higher. Dollar dominance is rising due to US energy independence, military strength, and lack of alternatives. The geopolitical environment and oil supply shocks further reinforce dollar strength, and the Fed cannot suppress it indefinitely.
DXY LONG
HIGH
21:58
Apr 22
Apr 22
Forward Guidance
1mo
DBC
XLE
Risk Assets
TLT
ETH
▾
HIGH
Commodities, especially oil, to rise late cycle.
Commodities, especially oil, perform well late in the liquidity cycle as the real economy accelerates. The gold-oil ratio tends to revert to 20, implying significant upside for oil if gold remains elevated, and rising commodity prices are what ultimately destroy liquidity in the late cycle.
DBC LONG
WTI WATCH
Cyclical value, resources, energy to outperform.
Cyclical value stocks, resources, and energy sectors outperform in the speculation phase of the liquidity cycle as the real economy gains traction and commodity prices rise.
XLE LONG
XLY LONG
XLB LONG
Liquidity cycle inflecting lower, risk assets vulnerable.
The global liquidity cycle is inflecting lower, moving into a late-cycle speculation phase that precedes turbulence, which is difficult for risk assets. This is driven by the real economy accelerating and absorbing liquidity from financial markets.
Risk Assets AVOID
Yield curves to flatten by mid-year.
Yield curves are poised to flatten by mid-year, contrary to consensus expecting steepening, because tightening liquidity (due to real economy absorption) increases demand for safe assets and reduces term premia, leading to long rates rising slower than short rates.
TLT WATCH
Crypto to suffer as liquidity falls.
Crypto assets (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana) are highly sensitive to liquidity and serve as a barometer. With global liquidity inflecting lower, crypto prices are likely to face significant headwinds and underperform.
ETH AVOID
BTC AVOID
SOL AVOID
HIGH
07:00
Apr 22
Apr 22
Forward Guidance
1mo
DBC
BTC FLIP
XLE
ETH 1ST
SOL 1ST
▾
MED
Commodities thrive at liquidity cycle peak.
Commodities do well at the peak of the liquidity cycle. We are at or just past that peak, so commodities have been on fire and will continue to benefit from the accelerating real economy.
DBC LONG
Liquidity decline pressures crypto assets.
Global liquidity is declining and crypto is the most liquidity-sensitive asset. As liquidity falls, crypto prices will face headwinds. The chart shows a 13-week lead of global liquidity over a basket of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, indicating tougher times ahead.
BTC AVOID
ETH AVOID
SOL AVOID
Energy stocks outperform in speculation phase.
In the speculation phase of the liquidity cycle, cyclical value stocks, resources, and energy outperform. This is driven by the real economy gaining traction and commodity markets moving higher.
XLE LONG
MED
14:07
Apr 16
Apr 16
Forward Guidance
1mo
SMH FLIP
GOLD 1ST
IYT 1ST
SPY
XLE
▾
HIGH
Focus on AI, gold, energy, and transports.
Concentrate on sectors that have underlying demand regardless of the macro bipolarity, such as AI infrastructure, gold, energy stocks (which are buying back stock), and Dow transports, because they are less affected by the extreme market structure and macro volatility.
SMH LONG
GOLD LONG
IYT LONG
XLE LONG
Long equities ahead of midterm fiscal stimulus.
With consumer sentiment at all-time lows and the midterm elections approaching, there is significant room for fiscal stimulus to boost the economy and stock market. The current budget deficit (around 5% of GDP) leaves room for additional spending, which will likely be deployed to support Main Street and, by extension, equity prices.
SPY WATCH
HIGH
07:00
Apr 15
Apr 15
Forward Guidance
1mo
EWZ 1ST
WTI 1ST
▾
HIGH
Brazil sugar exporters benefit from Coca-Cola switch.
If Coca-Cola were to switch from fructose to real sugar, Brazil would be the best source to fill the increased sugar demand due to its proximity and capacity, making Brazilian sugar exporters appear undervalued.
EWZ LONG
Steep oil contango signals oil price bottom.
A steep contango in oil prices has historically been a reliable indicator of a bottom in cash crude oil prices because producers leave oil in the ground and sell futures, creating scarcity in the present market.
WTI LONG
HIGH
07:00
Apr 10
Apr 10
Forward Guidance
1mo
SMH 1ST
BTC 1ST
IGV 1ST
GOLD 1ST
SPY 1ST
▾
Speaker stated "SMH is less than 1% from an all-time high" and "anything associated with this compute demand is just breaking out right now." He also said "the market is underpricing the demand for compute here." AI scaling is real and creating a nonlinear surge in demand for compute (GPUs, semiconductors), while supply is constrained (GPU availability collapsing). LONG because semiconductor exposure (via SMH) is a direct beneficiary of a sustained, underappreciated AI-driven compute boom. A broad equity market downturn that drags down all sectors, including semis, or a sudden slowdown in AI infrastructure investment.
SMH LONG
medium-term
Speaker stated, "Bitcoin's diverging from software now... Bitcoin's actually sniffing out maybe some global liquidity relief." He tied this to Trump needing to "pull some rabbits out of his hat" for the midterms. The anticipation of stimulative policy actions from the Trump administration to improve economic/political prospects could boost global liquidity, which Bitcoin is perceived to benefit from. LONG Bitcoin as a tactical bet on forthcoming policy responses that increase liquidity and risk appetite. No policy materializes, liquidity conditions tighten, or Bitcoin fails to act as a liquidity proxy.
BTC LONG
short-term
Speaker stated the IGV software ETF "looks like death," breaking its daily, weekly, and monthly moving averages. He explicitly said "AI is actually eating software's lunch." The disruptive force of AI is causing premium compression and anticipated earnings deterioration in the traditional software sector, which is not yet reflected in earnings numbers. AVOID because the software sector faces structural headwinds and de-rating as capital and value shift toward AI infrastructure and compute. Software sector earnings surprise to the upside, triggering a short squeeze and reversal in the downtrend.
IGV AVOID
medium-term
Speaker is "getting pretty bullish on gold again," noting it's "holding up phenomenally." He highlighted a junior gold miner being taken out at a 79% premium as evidence of underlying sector strength. Gold acts as a necessary hedge against currency debasement and financial market manipulation. Miner margins are expanding dramatically with spot gold prices well above break-evens. LONG gold as a diversifier and store of value in an environment of suppressed free markets and potential dollar weakness. A sharp rise in real yields or a major strengthening of the US dollar.
GOLD LONG
medium-term
Speaker said, "If you were told you could short the S&P 500 3% from all-time highs when the strait has been closed for 45 days, you would take that blindfolded." He later reiterated, "The fundamentals and macro outlook to me don't justify us being 3% off highs." Critical fundamental risks (Strait of Hormuz closure, looming hot inflation prints, poor liquidity) are not reflected in index prices, creating a poor risk/reward. SHORT because the index is overvalued relative to the deteriorating macro and geopolitical backdrop, despite recent positioning-driven strength. A durable ceasefire, Fed policy pivot, or continued systematic buying (CTA flows) drives the market higher despite fundamentals.
SPY SHORT
short-term
Speaker is "long the December and March '27" oil futures, loving the trade entries. He argues the back month (~$70) offers better value than the congested front month. Front-month prices are in a demand-destruction zone (~$110-$120) with heavy speculation, while back-month prices are significantly lower, offering a favorable convergence trade if the situation persists. LONG back-month oil futures (e.g., Dec '26) for a potential 20-25% gain on a convergence toward ~$90 later in the year. A swift resolution to Middle East tensions causes oil prices to collapse across the curve.
USO LONG
medium-term
15:49
Apr 07
Apr 07
Forward Guidance
1mo
XLP 1ST
XLE 1ST
DBA 1ST
▾
The speaker stated his pre-war investment position was "long food," linking it to the broader theme of securing essential supply chains. The war disrupts fertilizer and energy inputs critical for food production and distribution, creating physical shortages and inflationary pressure, particularly in vulnerable emerging markets. Being long food is a play on rising prices and scarcity in a essential, inelastic commodity sector, driven by cascading supply chain effects from the conflict. A bumper global harvest or successful diplomatic intervention that stabilizes fertilizer and energy inputs quickly.
XLP LONG
medium-term
The speaker stated his pre-war investment position was "long energy" and that the Iran conflict is an "accelerant" to those existing trends. The war disrupts global energy flows via the Strait of Hormuz, damaging infrastructure and creating lasting uncertainty, which supports higher prices and rewards secure producers. Being long the energy sector is a hedge and a direct play on the accelerated fracturing of global energy supply chains and rising geopolitical risk premiums. A swift, durable resolution to the conflict that fully restores transit and repairs infrastructure faster than expected.
XLE LONG
medium-term to long-term
The speaker stated his pre-war investment position was "long fertilizer" and identified it as a critical, lean supply chain vulnerable to the Hormuz disruption. Fertilizer production relies on feedstocks transiting the Strait. Disruption has already caused missed application windows globally, leading to lower crop yields and higher food prices 6-9 months out. Long fertilizer is a direct play on impending physical shortages and the resulting price inflation in agricultural inputs, exacerbated by the conflict. A rapid conflict resolution and release of global fertilizer reserves that alleviate near-term scarcity.
DBA LONG
medium-term
17:26
Apr 06
Apr 06
Forward Guidance
1mo
NVDA
SILVER
SMH 1ST
BTC
XLK FLIP
▾
Speaker acknowledges Nvidia's business is "the key to this entire thing" and demand is "infinite," but notes its multiple is compressing and it is "not out of the line of disruption." Nvidia is the essential hardware provider for the AI boom (infinite demand), but as a hardware company, it faces valuation pressures and competitive risks. The market is not pricing in the CEO's trillion-dollar revenue vision. WATCH because while the fundamental demand case is extreme, the investment thesis must balance this against high expectations, valuation compression, and the long-term risks all hardware companies face. Competition erodes pricing power and market share faster than expected, or a hardware architectural shift makes its products less critical.
NVDA WATCH
Medium-term
Speaker says, "I'll take silver every day over gold for the rest of time because it is a necessity in every single piece of technology that you use." He notes silver is up 60% in 6 months. Silver is a critical industrial commodity in all electronics and technology hardware. The infinite demand for AI compute and related hardware (e.g., drones, data centers) directly increases demand for silver, making it a "rare earth" metal in terms of necessity. LONG because its fundamental demand driver from the AI/tech build-out is stronger and more direct than gold's. A major recession that crushes industrial demand globally, overriding the AI-driven demand growth.
SILVER WATCH
Long-term
Speaker explicitly groups "semiconductors" with Bitcoin and silver as assets to take "over anything related to gold." He states the demand for compute is "infinite" due to the agentic AI era. The transition to agentic AI requires a thousand times more compute than the chatbot era. This creates a massive, sustained demand boom for the underlying hardware, with supply unable to keep up in the near term. LONG because the sector is a direct, fundamental beneficiary of the core AI infrastructure build-out, with demand structurally outstripping supply. A sudden, unforeseen slowdown in AI adoption or a breakthrough in compute efficiency that drastically reduces hardware demand.
SMH LONG
Medium to long-term
Speaker states he is "100% a believer that Bitcoin is the endgame for growth assets" and argues that the breakdown of discounted cash flow models for software companies makes Bitcoin attractive. AI progress is so rapid and disruptive that it invalidates traditional equity valuation models based on predictable long-term cash flows. Bitcoin, which has no cash flows, becomes a viable growth asset alternative as investors seek new places to allocate capital. LONG because Bitcoin is positioned to capture wealth transfer as confidence in traditional growth equity models erodes. The speaker calls the last few months "the most important four months in the history of crypto" for this reason. A renewed period of stability and predictable growth in traditional software/tech companies that restores faith in discounted cash flow models.
BTC LONG
Long-term
Speaker says he "hate[s] the software companies" within the Mag 7, naming Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Google. He argues AI agents will make human-centric decision-making (and thus many software business models, like ads) obsolete. Enterprise software companies face a negative labor arbitrage with AI (cheaper to replace seats with agents) and their future cash flows are highly uncertain due to disruption. Their models are built for human users, not AI agents. AVOID because these companies face existential business model disruption, challenges in adopting AI profitably, and potential government intervention/control, leading to "multiple compression." These companies successfully pivot their business models to be AI-native and monetize the agentic ecosystem effectively.
XLK AVOID
Medium to long-term
Speaker states, "Micron is the biggest position in my own personal portfolio. It's trading now at a 4 PE off next year's earnings..." Micron is a direct play on the memory (DRAM) bottleneck created by AI compute demand. The speaker has previously noted DRAM prices are up 400-500%, yet the market is valuing Micron as if this boom is temporary. LONG due to a combination of explosive fundamental demand for its products and a deeply discounted valuation that does not reflect the structural nature of the AI-driven demand shift. A catastrophic collapse in memory pricing due to a rapid increase in industry supply or a sharp drop in demand.
MU LONG
Medium-term
07:00
Apr 03
Apr 03
Forward Guidance
2mo
JETS
XLK 1ST
XLF 1ST
TLT
WTI
▾
Speaker highlights the ratio of Dow Transports to QQQ, noting it is at a historic low comparable to 2000, and states "this line should mean revert to the upside." Capital is rotating from tech into "real things" needed for the economy. Rising manufacturing PMIs and industrial metals support increased economic activity benefiting transports. The sector is set for potential mean reversion and outperformance versus tech, making it a key area to monitor for long opportunities. A deep economic slowdown that crushes industrial activity and freight demand.
JETS WATCH
Medium-term.
Speaker states he has been "pounding the table bearish mag seven" for months, playing it via long/short with metals/energy longs and tech shorts. Capital is rotating from high-multiple, non-profitable "bubble economy" tech into "real assets" (industrials, commodities). Market structure degrossing has occurred, but tech remains a source of funds. The sector is unattractive due to this macro rotation and multiple compression from higher bond yields. The speaker has trimmed but maintains an avoidant stance. A sharp downturn triggers a "flight to quality" into mega-cap tech names perceived as safe havens.
XLK AVOID
Medium-term.
Speaker explicitly states, "I don't really see a good case to be made for financials here." Higher inflation and restrictive policy hurt consumers via a negative wealth effect and higher living costs, leading to weaker demand and potential credit problems. This environment pressures financial sector profitability. The sector is unattractive due to the looming risks of credit deterioration and weaker economic activity. Aggressive Fed stimulus or yield curve control that relieves credit market pressure.
XLF AVOID
Medium-term.
Speaker declares "bonds are awful here awful awful awful" and discusses the bear-flattening dynamic. Inflation from oil and supply chain surcharges is persistent, forcing expectations of restrictive policy for longer. This pushes short-term yields up more than long-term (bear flattening), hurting total return. Bonds are an unattractive asset class as the market prices in sustained inflation and no near-term relief from the Fed. A severe credit event or recession that triggers a flight to safety and bull steepening.
TLT AVOID
Short-to-medium term.
Speaker explicitly loaded up on front-dated oil contracts based on the thesis the Iran-Israel war is not ending imminently. Oil is stuck in an "inflationary corridor" (~$100-$110) where prices fuel CPI increases but haven't yet crushed demand. Supply response is muted due to suppressed price signals and hedging. The setup favors being long, especially in the front of the curve, as geopolitical and structural factors support higher prices. A sudden geopolitical de-escalation or a policy-driven release of strategic reserves.
WTI LONG
Short-to-medium term.
07:00
Mar 27
Mar 27
Forward Guidance
2mo
XLE 1ST
SPY
DG 1ST
▾
Speaker stated there will be "pockets energy, commodities, agriculture that I think do well" while the broad stock market is "dicey." The ongoing war is a direct supply shock to global energy markets, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz representing a severe scenario for crude and natural gas flows, sustaining higher prices. The energy sector is a direct beneficiary of the entrenched geopolitical crisis and associated supply constraints, positioning it as a relative outperformer. An immediate and peaceful resolution to the conflict that re-opens shipping channels and restores supply flows faster than expected.
XLE LONG
Short to medium-term (contingent on war duration).
Speaker stated, "I think it's a very bad year to be invested in the stock market as a whole... it's dicey for people who just own S&P 500, which is 40% mag 7 stocks." The Fed is handcuffed by elevated oil-driven inflation, forcing a ~6-month pause on supportive policy. This lack of liquidity provision caps risk asset multiples and prices. A broad, passive long exposure to the equity index is unattractive due to constrained monetary policy and a negative macroeconomic shock. A rapid de-escalation in the Middle East that crumbles oil prices, allowing the Fed to intervene more preemptively with rate cuts.
SPY AVOID
Medium-term (next 6-12 months).
Speaker stated, "you have also this huge flight to safety flow that I think on net is overpowering everything and and making the dollar stronger." Capital is fleeing regions perceived as less safe (Europe, Middle East) due to war and growth risks, seeking the safety of US assets. This flow outweighs the dollar-negative impact of other central banks hiking rates more aggressively. The US dollar is the primary beneficiary of safe-haven flows during the current geopolitical crisis, driving it higher. A sudden, credible peace deal that reduces global risk aversion and reverses capital flows out of the USD.
DG LONG
Short to medium-term (while crisis persists).
18:10
Mar 25
Mar 25
Forward Guidance
2mo
BTC
XLF
▾
Raoul Pal stated that crypto's total addressable market is wildly underestimated because AI agents will use crypto rails for microtransactions, calling it "the strongest narrative we will ever have." AI agents will require efficient, scalable payment and transaction systems, with crypto providing the necessary infrastructure, leading to massive adoption and value accrual. Bullish on crypto as an asset class due to exponential growth in use cases driven by AI agent adoption. AI agents might not adopt crypto as expected, or regulatory barriers could impede growth.
BTC WATCH
long-term
Raoul Pal explicitly said that banks will provide liquidity for AI investments, with regulatory changes like ESLR allowing the banking system to lever up and "go back to the banks." Similar to the late '90s Greenspan era, banks will drive lending and capital formation, supporting economic growth and asset prices as they take on a central role in funding AI-driven expansion. Positive for the finance sector as banks regain their role in providing leverage and liquidity, potentially boosting profitability. Economic downturn or policy reversals that constrain bank lending, or failure of AI investments to materialize.
XLF WATCH
medium-term to long-term
14:04
Mar 20
Mar 20
Forward Guidance
2mo
EWY 1ST
DBA 1ST
EWJ
SPY 1ST
VGK
▾
Felix states he is "short Japan, short South Korea, short Europe." These regions are most exposed to the Hormuz Strait energy shock (high import dependence) and have central banks with limited flexibility to support growth, creating an economic vulnerability. Their equities are more effective shorts than broad U.S. indices like the NASDAQ to express a view on the global energy crisis. A swift de-escalation and reopening of the Strait, coupled with massive, coordinated global central bank stimulus.
EWY SHORT
EWJ NEUTRAL
VGK NEUTRAL
medium-term
Felix states his "big big trade is the agricultural stuff" and prefers the base commodities over fertilizer equities. Agricultural commodities encapsulate spiking input costs (fuel, fertilizer) while farm profit margins are at multi-year lows, limiting supply growth. Demand is highly inelastic compared to energy. Higher prices are the necessary "cure" to balance the market, creating an asymmetric long setup, especially during the critical spring planting season. A sudden collapse in energy prices that rapidly reduces production costs and improves farm economics.
DBA LONG
short-to-medium-term
Quinn states that even in a "hunky dory" scenario where oil falls to $80, "the Fed's still not cutting. Liquidity picture is still bad. foreign investors still need to pull their funds from these assets." This combination creates a "pretty strong ceiling on the S&P 500." The best-case outcome is flat nominal returns in a ~5% inflationary environment, implying negative real returns. The index faces significant macro and liquidity headwinds with limited upside catalyst, making it an unattractive risk/reward proposition. The Fed aggressively cutting rates despite elevated inflation to directly support asset prices.
SPY AVOID
medium-term
Felix explicitly states he is "still really long the natural gas torqued equities in the US, long the coal equities." The destruction of major LNG export infrastructure (Qatar) is a multi-year, multi-billion dollar problem that structurally removes supply, making other global energy assets more valuable. These equities are positioned to benefit from persistent energy supply shocks and the resulting higher price environment. A rapid, peaceful resolution to Middle East conflicts that restores supply flows and market confidence.
UNG LONG
medium-term
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