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Next edition in 265 min Oct 20, 23:00 - Oct 21, 09:00 Lisbon
Premarket Alpha Midday Alpha Post-Market Alpha
Daily Alpha Premarket Alpha by Buzzberg Research

What matters before the open

Musk said SpaceX and Tesla formed committees to explore a merger; his remark that old H100s rent above their new prices came as neoclouds rose after hours; SK Hynix's HBM4 shipments reportedly lagged; Chamath said VC money funds most AI spending.

Main narratives

day change
01

Musk said SpaceX and Tesla formed special committees to explore a merger, though no terms have been agreed

Per Reuters, Musk said combining SpaceX and Tesla would be 'a good idea' and that the companies had formed special committees to discuss a union. Musk also said the committees have not agreed terms and there is no guarantee they will. Brian Tycangco calculated that SpaceX's 76% average quarterly revenue growth, if sustained, gives $250 billion of 4Q27 revenue, half Musk's $500 billion lower target.

SPCX — · TSLA -0.7%
02

Musk said old H100s rent for more than when new, and Nebius, CoreWeave and IREN rose after hours

Per @paradislabs, Musk said on the SpaceX call that compute value per watt will rise over time and that old H100s rent for more than when new; Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) called the statement heavily bullish on neoclouds. @beauty_oe listed after-hours gains of 6% for Nebius and 5% for CoreWeave and IREN. Tengyan cautioned that SpaceX rents at spot, so that line reprices once GPU rents turn, while neoclouds hold multi-year take-or-pay contracts.

NBIS +1.2% · CRWV -1.3% · IREN +0.0% · SPCX —
03

SK Hynix's HBM4 shipments reportedly fell short of Q3 expectations, and its Q3 profit consensus is down 5.6% in three months

Per industry sources relayed by P Equity Research, SK Hynix's Q3 operating-profit consensus is 76.964 trillion won, down 5.6% from 81.5122 trillion won three months ago. JPMorgan projects SK Hynix's HBM share falling from 60% in 2025 to 46% this year and 41% next year, and UBS sees Samsung's bit shipments (41%) passing SK Hynix's (39%) next year. Separately, damnang2 said a strike is apparently going ahead at Micron's smaller Taoyuan fab.

005930.KS +0.5% · MU +3.4%
04

Chamath said roughly $0.70-0.75 of every dollar of AI spending comes from AI companies spending VC money

Chamath Palihapitiya wrote that 1% of companies represent 90% of AI spending and that 80% of that spend comes from unprofitable VC-backed companies, so AI revenue quality is currently poor. Chamath compared it with cloud, when early AWS users were mostly venture-backed startups and a few clearing events sorted out brittle revenues. Chamath said AI must move from speculative spending to reliable spend that shows up in public market earnings reports.

Themes of the session

?
Z-score shows how far this edition's mention count is above or below the theme's own average across 20 comparable earlier editions. +2.7σ means mentions are 2.7 standard deviations above that average — simply, the theme is being mentioned much more often than usual. It measures attention, not bullishness or expected return. Themes need at least 8 posts; gold begins at +2σ, and σ is hidden when history is too thin.
Space +13.7σ
SPCX —
52 posts 29 voices base 5.3
Streaming +5.2σ
NFLX -0.8% · DIS -0.4% · TFI.PA —
+3 more CMCSA — · WBD — · PSKY —
16 posts 15 voices base 2.6
Defense +2.8σ
ONDS +3.2% · 012450.KS +0.0% · VSAT +2.9%
+5 more NOC — · RTX — · UMAC — · AVEX — · 064350.KS —
10 posts 7 voices base 3.5
Crypto Assets +2.7σ
BTC — · NEAR — · HYPE —
+15 more ZEC — · JUP — · XMR — · ETH — · CRIME — · DOT — · GRASS — · PLS — · VVV — · PUMP — · WLD — · STRK — · TIA — · LTC — · XRP —
48 posts 23 voices base 25.1
Technology +2.1σ
AI-SECTOR —
12 posts 9 voices base 5.3
AI Hardware +1.9σ
SMCI +0.0% · AAPL -0.6% · SNX —
+5 more PENG — · 009150.KS — · 081580.KQ — · 066570.KS — · 2449.TW —
22 posts 19 voices base 11.2
AI Software +1.3σ
PLTR -0.0% · BRZE +0.0% · AKAM +2.4%
+7 more 300080.KQ — · 304100.KQ — · ZETA — · TTD — · VEEV — · CRM — · 402030.KQ —
12 posts 11 voices base 8.5
Clean Energy +1.3σ
BE -12.3% · NXT +1.3% · 096770.KS +0.0%
+1 more 009830.KS —
8 posts 7 voices base 4.6
Autos & EV +1.0σ
TSLA -0.7% · GM -2.2% · 005380.KS -2.3%
+2 more XPEL — · 000270.KS —
27 posts 19 voices base 14.3
NeoCloud +0.7σ
NBIS +1.2% · CRWV -1.3% · IREN +0.0%
+5 more KC — · BRUN — · APLD — · SHAZ — · NXT.AX +0.0%
31 posts 23 voices base 19.8
Hyperscalers +0.3σ
META -0.7% · GOOGL -0.5% · AMZN -0.2%
+2 more MSFT +0.8% · ORCL +1.7%
32 posts 25 voices base 28.6
AI Photonics +0.0σ
CRDO -8.7% · LITE +2.3% · LPTH +3.4%
+4 more AAOI — · GLW — · 011070.KS — · EG.KL —
14 posts 11 voices base 13.8
Equity Indexes -0.3σ
EWY +1.8% · SPY -0.3% · QQQ +0.3%
+15 more NQ — · ^KS11 — · EWG -1.0% · NDX — · DJI — · KOSDAQ — · COMPQ — · EWQ — · EWJ — · CQQQ — · XAU — · TSE — · EWA +0.5% · VGK -0.7% · FXI -0.3%
28 posts 25 voices base 31.7
AI Memory -0.4σ
000660.KS +4.7% · MU +3.4% · 005930.KS +0.5%
+3 more SKHY +4.2% · 285A.T — · 2408.TW —
28 posts 17 voices base 35.9
Positioning Market Radar →

Buying / adding

2 positions · 2 voices

Selective / waiting

1 positions · 1 voices

Fading / not buying

2 positions · 2 voices
YouTube
16 videos · 36h 15m Ken Griffin said AI investors are becoming more selective, George Noble said he is short CoreWeave, and Deutsche Bank's Christian Sewing dismissed an imminent AI bubble. Open the desk →
X
1226 posts Chamath questioned AI revenue quality, Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) cited SpaceX's $35-40 billion Q4 capex guidance, and @bubbleboi put Anthropic's IPO pricing at $1.5 trillion. Open the desk →
Reddit
263 threads Reddit posts argued TSMC trades below JNJ, ISRG and GE Aerospace on P/E, flagged widening Nvidia CDS spreads, and defended short SpaceX covered calls. Open the desk →
Substack
8 letters Rooster asked whether SK Hynix has bottomed, and Capital Flows called interest-rate risk the main dynamic to manage into FOMC. Open the desk →