Daily Alpha · X
· Premarket Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Chamath questioned AI revenue quality, Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) cited SpaceX's $35-40 billion Q4 capex guidance, and @bubbleboi put Anthropic's IPO pricing at $1.5 trillion.
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Market Radar →Chamath says 1% of companies represent 90% of AI spending
Chamath says 80% of that spend comes from unprofitable VC-backed companies, so roughly $0.70-0.75 of every dollar of AI spending is VC investment money and AI revenue quality is currently poor.
1% of companies represent 90% of AI spending.
Chamath argues AI must move from speculative spending to consistent, reliable spend that shows up in public market earnings reports, as cloud did after a few clearing events.
Watch Whether AI spending begins showing up in public companies' earnings reports.
Source →Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) says SpaceX's $35-40 billion Q4 capex guidance roughly doubles its previous outlook
Serenity contrasts it with an August CFO comment that Q3 and Q4 capex should be similar to Q2's $18.37 billion, and quotes Musk on high confidence of 10 GW of incremental power next year, with 20 GW difficult but not impossible.
Yeah not sure how anyone thinks it's over on AI semis like $NVDA GPUs, memory, to photonics, after $SPCX earnings.
Serenity argues the buildout will need a lot of HBM, power and networking/optical components, and rejects the view that AI semis are over.
Watch Whether SpaceX targets another 10 GW deployment by next year.
Source →SK Hynix's HBM4 shipments reportedly fell short of initial expectations in the third quarter
Per industry sources, SK Hynix's Q3 operating-profit consensus is 76.964 trillion won, down 5.6% from three months ago, and JPMorgan projects its HBM share falling from 60% in 2025 to 46% this year and 41% next year.
The industry believes SK Hynix' HBM4 shipments fell short of initial expectations in the third quarter.
UBS forecasts Samsung's bit shipments (41%) surpassing SK Hynix's (39%) next year, and Samsung's HBM4 production yield is believed to have risen to around 80%.
Watch SK Hynix's Nvidia supply share starting with HBM4.
Source →@bubbleboi says Anthropic's IPO is pricing at $1.5 trillion, about 9x forward revenue
@bubbleboi cites presented revenue forecasts of approximately $55 billion, $140 billion, $265 billion and $665 billion for 2026-2029 and calls the numbers good.
Anthropic IPO is pricing @ $1.5T, ~9x forward revenue or ~9x forward revenue.
The post quotes @insane_analyst saying the market barely moved after the WSJ leaked information from Anthropic's S-1.
Watch Anthropic's IPO pricing against the $1.5 trillion figure.
Source →Tengyan is cautious about SpaceX's rental revenue because it rents compute at spot
Tengyan says SpaceX rents at spot rather than signing long deals, so that revenue line reprices as soon as GPU rents turn, while neoclouds sit on multi-year take-or-pay contracts.
@DanielTNiles agree, the part i'd be somewhat cautious about is the rental revenue.
SpaceX's rental revenue and neocloud contract revenue respond differently to a turn in GPU rents.
Watch Spot GPU rental prices.
Source →