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· Midday Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Gavin Baker put DeepSeek inference revenue at $100 billion per gigawatt, Jukan said SpaceX commands a 2x-3x premium over IREN, and @burggrabenh said Oracle's CDS implies a 24% cumulative default probability.
Themes on this desk
Nebius capacity
Posts quoted Nebius CRO Marc Boroditsky saying 1 GW of Vera Rubin capacity is coming next year and that Nebius does not have enough capacity for customers' late-2027 and early-2028 needs.
Nvidia supplier capacity
Nvidia will give KYEC a $1.1 billion capacity reservation advance and targets a more than 300% interposer capacity increase with Amkor by 2028.
Ticker heat
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Market Radar →China's central bank bought 23 tonnes of gold in September, its largest monthly purchase in three years
The purchase came as gold fell more than 6% in September to $4,157, over 25% below its January record of $5,595; it was China's 23rd straight month of buying, bringing its 2026 total to 103 tonnes.
China’s central bank is buying the dip in gold.
Official buying continued through a drop in the gold price.
Watch China's next monthly gold purchase figure.
Source →Gavin Baker says DeepSeek earns $38 per GPU hour off-peak, or $100 billion per gigawatt
After co-hosting the GTC Berlin pregame show, Baker said DeepSeek generates $38 in inference revenue per GPU hour off-peak, which he equates to $100 billion per gigawatt, and twice that at peak.
Fun to co-host the GTC Berlin pregame show with @dee_bosa and nice of her to invite me on the postgame
Baker called the figure important; it puts a revenue number on a gigawatt of inference capacity.
Watch DeepSeek's off-peak and peak inference revenue per GPU hour.
Source →Jukan says SpaceX commands a 2x to 3x compute price premium over rivals like IREN
Jukan says SpaceX insists on short-term leases, so it can keep raising prices while compute gets scarcer; citing its buildout capability and its own compute demand, he says it commands a premium of 2x, and as much as 3x, over competitors like IREN ($60 billion per GW).
SpaceX is effectively the best neocloud right now...
He says SpaceX is now the company to watch most closely to track Nvidia's revenue, and will absorb more Nvidia chips than anyone until SpaceX ASICs come out of Terafab in 2030.
Watch SpaceX's lease pricing on new compute contracts.
Source →Oracle's 5-year CDS implies a 24% cumulative default probability, says @burggrabenh
Assuming 40% recovery, @burggrabenh says Oracle's 5-year CDS now implies a 24% cumulative default probability, with similar stress across Oracle's maturities and weaker data-centre and neocloud borrowers.
The cost of insuring Oracle’s debt against default over five years is exploding.
The author compares the setup to Q3 1999 and would not be surprised if AI growth is peaking now.
Watch Oracle's 5-year CDS.
Source →Micron and Nvidia are expected to supply 36% of S&P 500 third-quarter earnings growth
The Kobeissi Letter says Micron and Nvidia should add 5.2 and 4.6 percentage points to the index's 27% year-over-year earnings growth; excluding the top 10 contributors, earnings are estimated to decline 11%.
This is unprecedented. Micron, $MU, and Nvidia, $NVDA are expected to account for 36% of the S&P 500’s earnings growth
The remaining 490 stocks are set to contribute just 9.2 percentage points of growth.
Watch Micron and Nvidia results against these contribution estimates.
Source →