Daily Alpha · X
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Jukan pushed back on the CXMT-driven memory selloff, and Gavin Baker argued Anthropic's S-1 commitments are fundable.
Themes on this desk
CXMT and memory
Jukan says CXMT's 4F² move extends DUV rather than leapfrogging EUV memory makers; Jonah Lupton relays Macquarie estimates of CXMT bit shipment growth of ~35% in 2027 and ~45% in 2028.
Ticker heat
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Market Radar →Gavin Baker splits Anthropic's ~$400B of S-1 commitments into cloud spend and Broadcom financing
Baker says the ~$400 billion of contractual commitments in the Anthropic S-1 are $31 billion of annual cloud spend over 7-10 years plus $161 billion in Broadcom commitments that will be financed by Broadcom and private credit.
I have actually answered your question multiple times now.
Baker says the cloud spend can easily be funded out of Anthropic's revenue.
Source →Jukan says CXMT's 4F² plan extends DUV rather than leapfrogging EUV memory makers
Jukan says CXMT has hit the limits of DUV scaling and is moving from 6F² to 4F² at a 13 to 14nm node to extend the life of DUV. Jukan adds that Samsung and SK hynix could mass produce 4F² now but hold off because the yields aren't there.
Watching people freak out over CXMT's 4F² and claim that CXMT has caught up with Western memory technology is honestly
Jukan says the selloff sparked by CXMT makes no sense.
Source →Paradis Labs cites Micron's CEO expecting tighter memory supply in fiscal 2027 and 2028
Paradis Labs quotes Micron's CEO expecting memory and storage supply-demand conditions to be much tighter in fiscal 2027 and 2028 than in 2026, and notes Micron said more than 75% of FY27 output is already committed.
Memory fundamentals are still very strong (stronger than Q1). $MU CEO:
Paradis Labs cites Micron's 87% gross margin and SanDisk's 84.6% in their most recent quarters.
Source →bubbleboi says Muse completed place and route for a RISC-V crypto accelerator SoC
bubbleboi says the design closed on nangate45 with 61,590 cells at 100 MHz and 20 mW with zero DRC or electrical violations, done with about 100M output tokens or roughly $2,000 of work.
HUGE UPDATE !!! Muse has now completed full place and route in OpenROAD and generated a final GDS for our
bubbleboi is looking for MPW shuttle slots to start taping out as soon as possible.
Source →Jonah Lupton relays Macquarie estimates that CXMT's growth mostly fills China demand
Relaying Macquarie analyst Katherine Zheng, Lupton says CXMT bit shipments grow ~35% in 2027 and ~45% in 2028, lifting its share of global bits from ~9% in 2026 to ~12% in 2028. China uses a third of world DRAM supply, and the analyst says China can absorb all of CXMT's added supply through 2028.
Big thanks to Katherine Zheng (tech analyst) at Macquarie... she is extremely knowledgable and thorough in her commentary on $CXMT.
Lupton relays that CXMT is overcharging Chinese customers, allowing 85-86% gross margins, so it is unlikely to want to sell outside China at lower prices.
Source →