Daily Alpha · YouTube
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Who was talking 30 videos · 6 channels
Long-end yields
2 videos · 40mPeter Berezin and a Bloomberg segment both link long-end yields to AI-related capital demand; the 2s10s spread widened back to about 49bp after briefly narrowing to around 20bp.
Peter Berezin says AI capex, more than the oil shock, is driving long-end yields
BCA Research's Peter Berezin sees the AI buildout continuing roughly one to two more years on compute and memory scarcity, but notes stocks have historically peaked before capex peaks. He is neutral on equities and says a 5.5% 10-year yield would be high enough to get bullish on bonds.
Bloomberg segment says the 2s10s move may not be a clean recession signal
The 2-year/10-year Treasury spread briefly narrowed to around 20bp before widening back to about 49bp. The segment says the long end is being shaped more by inflation risk, heavy Treasury supply, deficits and AI buildout capital demands than by Fed expectations.
CFTC staff were reportedly told to retract a referral on well-timed oil trades
Per Bloomberg reporting, CFTC analysts flagged crude trades placed just before a March 23 presidential post that deferred planned US strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and referred them to enforcement, but a senior official asked for the referral to be retracted. The CFTC is said to be continuing a widened probe alongside a Justice Department effort.
Dell's CEO says AI server demand and backlog remain strong
Dell's CEO says AI-driven server and infrastructure demand remains strong, with a healthy project backlog and no material signs of delay from local data-center opposition.
Ed Yardeni says elevated yields mark a return to normal rates
Ed Yardeni argues elevated bond yields reflect a return to historically normal rates rather than a new higher-for-longer regime, and expects a technology-led productivity boom to support nominal GDP, revenues and earnings.