Daily Alpha · X
· Premarket Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
X focused on Hock Tan's financing warning and CXMT news; @aleabitoreddit cites Samsung LTAs covering 70% of capacity into 2031, and Cantor sees TSMC's 2027 capex at $90-100B.
Themes on this desk
Memory after CXMT
@tengyanAI says the market sold SK Hynix harder than Samsung on CXMT's news, Paradis Labs points to a week of foreign net selling, and @aleabitoreddit argues demand visibility for memory makers extends into 2030-2031.
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Market Radar →@aleabitoreddit: Samsung has LTAs covering 70% of its capacity into 2031
@aleabitoreddit says demand visibility for MU, Samsung and SK Hynix extends into 2030-2031 and that Nvidia and hyperscaler procurement outweighs CXMT/YMTC bear cases cited by CEOs who want memory prices lower.
Sure... Random train of thoughts on markets now, optics like $LITE / memory + $IREN / Anthropic. On Memory:
@aleabitoreddit argues cumulative FCF from take-or-pay and price-floor contracts might exceed some of these companies' market caps.
Watch Whether the 2027 memory shortage proves much more severe than 2026, which @aleabitoreddit calls the consensus.
Source →Cantor sees TSMC's 2027 capex at $90-100B, up from $80B+ in July
Cantor's work suggests ~$90-100B of 2027 capex, supported by about 70k wspm of N2, 40k of N3, 20k of A16 and 5k of A14 adds, with about 160k wspm more added in 2028.
Cantor Fitzgerald on TSMC's CapEx: "As for CY27, while TSMC has historically saved its out-year guide for January, our work
TSMC has historically saved its out-year guide for January.
Watch TSMC's results, due Thursday.
Source →Paradis Labs: foreign institutions have net-sold SK Hynix and Samsung every day for about a week
Paradis Labs says the foreign institutional trade has been sell Korea, buy US, while Korean investors rotated slightly from memory into financials; it calls the Bloomberg/Hock Tan article unhelpful but not the root cause.
The KOSPI sell-off is driven by foreign institutions net-selling SK Hynix and Samsung everyday for the past ~week. Simply:
Korea imports nearly all its crude, so KOSPI still tracks inverse oil price moves as Iran tensions escalate.
Watch Foreign institutional net flows in SK Hynix and Samsung.
Source →@tengyanAI: Samsung, not SK Hynix, has more pricing riding on what CXMT targets
The market sold SK Hynix about 9% and Samsung about 7% by late morning in Seoul on CXMT's news, but Samsung's reported DRAM price rose ~3.9x over the three quarters to June versus 2.6-2.9x for SK Hynix, whose sales lean on HBM.
interesting... the market is selling sk hynix harder than samsung on china's CXMT news, about -9% vs -7% by late
If CXMT's server memory lands in volume in 2027, it pressures conventional DRAM, where Samsung has far more of its pricing riding.
Watch CXMT's year-end conventional DDR5 server memory and its 2027 volumes.
Source →JPM's Joshua Meyers links the tech selloff to Hock Tan's financing warning and power concerns
Meyers says the most proximate reason was Hock Tan warning on a DBS conference panel that financing could become a bigger bottleneck than component shortages; a weekend sell-side note on powered-shell shortages of as much as 19GW next year re-ignited power concerns.
JPM Tech specialist Joshua Meyers on today's tech selloff The most proximate reason seems to be Hock Tan's participation in
He sees rotation into Mag 7 and Internet names while the SOX struggles at its 100-day moving average.
Watch The private frontier-lab investor meeting expected on Wednesday.
Source →