Daily Alpha · Substack
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
QTR argues OpenAI's ~$50B annualized revenue against ~$1.5T of commitments marks a circular-financing bubble, while Damnang's yield model challenges Cerebras's 164x defect-tolerance claim.
QTR: the AI rally trapdoor has opened
QTR calls the AI boom a circular-financing bubble, citing OpenAI at ~$50B annualized revenue against $1.5T in commitments and Anthropic's $4.6B revenue against $518B in future obligations.
Oracle's force majeure and surging CDS plus Firmus's stalled IPO are, in the author's view, early signs of an unwind.
Watch An unwind the author says could begin within six to ten months.
Source →Cerebras's 164x defect-tolerance claim is not a shipment yield
The author says the 164x figure compares silicon area disabled by defects, not shipment yield, and models how cluster defects, PVT variation, long repair connections and test overhead could make WSE-3 mass production harder than that figure suggests.
It challenges Cerebras's cost and yield narrative and implicitly favors die-level screened GPU manufacturing.
Source →