Daily Alpha · Reddit
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Reddit holders bought the selloff in Nvidia and AMD, and one poster put $1mm into AAOI.
Themes on this desk
Dip-buying the selloff
An r/NVDA_Stock commenter put about a third of their capital in today and an AMD holder bought more at $625; another AMD commenter is waiting, expecting the OpenAI headline to be seen as an accounting issue rather than a real miss.
Highest engagement
by score · day changeA $1mm AAOI dip buy on a sold-out AI infrastructure thesis
The author bought $1mm of AAOI on the dip, calling it a sold-out AI infrastructure play with the ATM finished and free cash flow expected to improve in the second half.
I bought the dip, $1mm in AAOI Went a little nuts on AAOI today.
The author targets $500 within two years.
Watch Second-half free cash flow.
Source →CMG valued at ~$42 standalone, $48-55+ with a Starbucks premium
The author argues CMG is undervalued near $30 with about $42 of standalone fair value and a possible Starbucks takeover premium to $48-55+.
Pumpkin Spice Burritos. CMG(x)SBUC Yes I used A.I for this post. But the number are true to it.
The case partly rests on an unconfirmed takeover report.
Watch Rumor and margin risks the author flags.
Source →Vonovia at €16.30 against €46.22 EPRA NTA
The author calls Vonovia deeply mispriced versus EPRA NTA, citing locked-in financing, fading expropriation risk, rent growth and insider buying.
Vonovia (Germany real estate) Vonovia at 16.30 EUR against an EPRA NTA of 46.22 EUR is a total mispricing.
The author's case rests on locked-in financing, rent growth and insider buying.
Watch Rent growth.
Source →Not all of Costco's $21.3b cash is spare, a commenter argues
The commenter argues part of Costco's $21.3b cash is not truly spare because of negative working capital, deferred membership fees and supplier payables.
good writeup. a useful check next to your 9% eps base case is to flip it:
The commenter suggests testing whether Costco's premium valuation reflects very durable membership renewal.
Watch Membership renewal rates.
Source →Google-Constellation's 890 MW uprate could pull forward uranium contracting
The author argues the nuclear uprate deal could pull uranium fuel contracting forward before the extra power arrives in 2028, while admitting it is an inference, not a disclosed uranium purchase.
Google’s nuclear deal adds capacity at existing plants. When does that reach uranium contracting?
The extra power from the uprate is expected to arrive in 2028.
Watch Utility uranium contracting volumes.
Source →Most argued
by comments per upvoteIndian IT puts on weak Q2 and the US visa-program suspension
The author is bearish on Indian IT stocks and the Nifty, citing weak Q2 expectations and the US suspending TCS and Microsoft from the H-1B visa program, and recommends put options.
How many of you holding puts of IT Stocks and nifty 50… I have already posted here today morning that
The author recommends loading put options on IT stocks and the Nifty.
Watch Indian IT Q2 results.
Source →ALEC's risk/reward looks better after Genentech's AL050 deal, the author argues
The author argues ALEC's risk/reward improved after Genentech's AL050 deal.
ALEC: Genentech deal + Oct 13 R&D event I’ve been digging into ALEC over the last few days and honestly,
The author sees the Genentech AL050 deal as improving risk/reward.
Watch The October 13 ABC R&D webinar.
Source →Hormel bought heavily for a 6% yield and GLP-1-friendly products
The author went heavy on Hormel at current levels, citing its 6% yield and GLP-1-friendly products, and expects a rebound when bonds recover.
Hormel too low in my opinion. Paying 6 percent . GLP-1 friendly. I went heavy at these levels.
A high-yield staple is being treated as a bond-recovery trade.
Watch Bond yields.
Source →Compass Pathways' Comp360 NDA could lead to approval this year
The author's bullish CMPS case centers on a near-term NDA submission and possible FDA approval this year for psilocybin-based Comp360 in treatment-resistant depression.
Compass Pathways (CMPS), first FDA approved psychedelic, still this year? Are there other investors in CMPS here?
It would be the first FDA-approved psychedelic, per the author.
Watch The NDA submission.
Source →