Daily Alpha · X
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
X split over whether OpenAI's $50 billion figure is a miss or net-versus-gross accounting, while SpaceX's spectrum deal hit the telecom carriers.
Themes on this desk
OpenAI ARR
One poster tied the Nasdaq drop to the FT headline that OpenAI's annualized revenue was about $20B below the $70B previously reported; others said the gap reflects a reported 20% Microsoft revenue share and differences with Anthropic's acco
SpaceX spectrum
Telecom stocks slid after SpaceX agreed to acquire 800 MHz spectrum for Starlink Mobile, with Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile down 6.6% to 7.2%.
Ticker heat
?
Top voices by smart followers and alpha score
Market Radar →The real AI bubble is in private VC valuations, not supply-chain stocks
The post says the real bubble is in private VC valuations such as Instinct's $10B on 100k users, while supply-chain names like AAOI look very undervalued relative to forward growth.
Real bubble is in VC land with private companies like Instinct… $10B valuations off 100k users while $SNAP is worth
Hyperscaler demand visibility extends multiple years.
Source →OpenAI's $50B vs $70B gap is mostly a Microsoft revenue share
OpenAI pays Microsoft a revenue share, reportedly 20%, through 2030, which accounts for most of the difference between gross and net revenue; the updated FT article reports $30B/$40B net/gross in July and $50B/$70B in September.
For the newbs out there. OpenAI pays Microsoft a revenue share (reportedly 20%) through 2030.
Gross revenue may be the better measure of the model business because the revenue share expires.
Watch The revenue share's expiry in 2030.
Source →Optical circuit switch revenue projected to pass $2.5B next year
Lumentum expects over $100m of OCS revenue for the September quarter versus under $10m a quarter a year ago, and Google's OCS demand is expected to exceed $4b in 2027, 3 to 4x the 2026 level.
Funda Takeaways: OCS > Optical circuit switch (OCS) revenue has surged from under $10m a quarter a year ago to
Google will buy mostly externally from 2027, and Lumentum expects to become the number one supplier in early 2027.
Watch Nvidia's expected OCS adoption from late 2028.
Source →Labubu Trader won't buy the semis dip yet, citing CPI, midterms and FOMC ahead
Bullish on OpenAI's growth but declining to buy semis now, citing CPI, midterm and FOMC events ahead and semi positioning that is no longer light.
Folks in the comments asked me if I'd buy the dip today.
Semi bulls sitting on large gains this year may prioritize risk management into Q4.
Watch CPI, the midterms and the FOMC meeting.
Source →Nearly 500,000 b/d of refining sits in Hurricane Isaias's path, per Bloomberg
Per Bloomberg, offshore producers have shut in more than 60% of crude output; gasoline averaged $4.36 a gallon and diesel about $6.28 on Wednesday after a September record.
$VLO $MPC $PSX $DK $CLMT (Bloomberg) -- Nearly 500,000 barrels a day of oil-refining capacity sit in the projected path
Hurricane damage to refineries would threaten to push pump prices up with limited slack in a historically tight fuels market.
Watch Landfall along the northern Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday.
Source →