Daily Alpha · Substack
· Midday Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Scenario work rather than new positioning dominates the Substack window: the sharpest question on the desk is how much worse the oil crisis can get, while Citrini opens a new thread on blockchain's institutional moment.
Themes on this desk
Energy escalation
QTR's Fringe Finance frames a genuine global energy emergency — oil at $150 or even $200 a barrel — as the scenario to war-game.
Crypto–TradFi convergence
Citrini Research asks whether blockchain has finally reached its moment, arguing the wall between traditional finance and crypto is starting to come down.
QTR war-games an oil crisis escalation toward $150–200 a barrel
The post asks what happens if the oil crisis gets much, much worse, explicitly framing a genuine global energy emergency in which oil reaches $150 or even $200 a barrel.
Sets the outer bound for an energy shock — the scenario that would most directly feed inflation and pressure both equities and bonds.
Watch Whether the crisis escalates toward the $150–200 scenario or de-escalates and drains the risk premium.
Source →Citrini: the wall between traditional finance and crypto is starting to come down
Citrini's piece is framed around whether blockchain has finally reached its moment, arguing that the wall between traditional finance and crypto is starting to come down.
If institutional adoption of onchain rails is genuinely beginning, the read-through runs to settlement, custody and payment infrastructure rather than token prices.
Watch Concrete custody, settlement or payment integrations between traditional firms and crypto rails that would substantiate the convergence claim.
Source →