Microsoft showed AI capex converting into cloud growth; Meta showed rising spend, debt and weaker cash conversion. Warsh’s 9-3 hold still tightened the long end, while Korea’s memory rout was leverage-amplified but fixed-price HBM contracts cloud the rebound case.
Microsoft’s tracked-holder recap put Azure growth at 43%, commercial backlog growth at 84% to $678B, and quarterly capex at $35.8B, yet about $19.6B remained after capex. A separate Meta review saw 28% revenue growth but $83.7B of long-term debt and only $784M of free cash flow as capex guidance rose. The market is separating spend that already converts from spend still demanding proof.
The Fed held 9-3, with Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan preferring a 25bp hike. Jim Bianco reported the 30-year yield up 12bp to 5.21%, a 19-year high, while former Fed trader Joseph Wang said Warsh’s undefined broader inflation gauge raised the risk premium for long bonds. Votes and market prices, not forward guidance, are becoming the transmission channel.
A 3PRO panel said credit and leveraged-account liquidations amplified selling before the feared AI-demand deterioration had appeared. Steve Jang argued SK Hynix is solid in AI compute for two years and booked under long-term contracts. An unaudited ValueInvesting post raised the offsetting issue: fixed-price HBM agreements may cap participation in commodity DRAM price spikes.
Stonepeak’s co-founder said contracted data centers differ from dotcom-era fiber and identified power, grid access, and permitting as scarce skills. Serenity reported separate AXTI capacity reservations with COHR and LITE but said pricing is unknown. Unaudited Reddit DD adds water permitting through TTEK as a quieter constraint rather than another compute proxy.
Kaizen explicitly bought BE at $176, his first buy since March; Crux separately added BE and AMKR to an infrastructure basket. These are two disclosed fresh actions, not proof of consensus.
CryptoCondom explicitly added LPTH at $9.33, citing the team, moat, and accelerating revenue.
TheValueist retained NVDA, MU, SNDK, and LITE through mostly 18-plus-month calls with January 2027 short legs; this was an existing structure, not a fresh buy.
Alma retained Samsung Electronics preferreds as the core defensive memory position and disclosed rotating some capital toward SK Hynix, without a trade time or price.
Serenity treated the LITE and COHR capacity reservations as positive demand evidence but explicitly said contract pricing was unknown.
Mark Minervini added a partial SPY short against profitable longs with an explicit stop above 755.
Temple Eight said earlier puts were closed before the Fed, then disclosed a new short-futures position aimed at the Nasdaq 200-day moving average.
Temple Eight said the BE position was closed immediately, directly opposing fresh BE buyers in the same window.