NEM Newmont Corporation : Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions

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Cramer stated "owning a gold stock is very important" and that he "like[s] Agnico just because... they're so consistent." He also expressed interest in having Newmont's CEO on the show, indicating it's a quality company. He recommends owning both physical gold and gold miners as important holdings, with Agnico being his preferred miner due to its operational consistency. High-quality gold miners like Agnico (and by extension, Newmont) are a recommended part of a portfolio, especially in the current uncertain geopolitical and inflationary environment. A sharp drop in the price of gold if geopolitical tensions ease rapidly.

Upgrade recommends buying NEM (gold) as it has fallen, presenting a value opportunity.

Cramer described Newmont Mining as a "classic letdown" and not the best gold miner, preferring Agnico Eagle. As a non-growth, non-data center stock among winners, it fails to meet investment criteria for growth-oriented markets. AVOID because it is perceived as an underperformer relative to peers and market theme. Surge in gold prices or company-specific improvements.

The author is dropping their bearish stance and upgrading the stock, citing the recent correction in gold prices as the catalyst to cover shorts or move to the sidelines.

Short Newmont based on the view that the company's growth-by-acquisition strategy may not be accretive to shareholder value and could lead to underperformance.

"You're running at about 20% cost inflation right now... I really like producers or near-term producers in the gold space versus anything that's more than say three years out." Building new mines has become prohibitively expensive due to severe inflation in materials and labor (a $500M project today will cost $1B in five years). Therefore, junior explorers face massive dilution and execution risk, while companies that have already spent their capital and are currently producing gold will capture the full margin expansion of rising spot prices. LONG. Established gold producers are positioned to generate massive free cash flow while avoiding the severe CAPEX inflation plaguing new mine construction. Management teams returning to poor capital discipline (e.g., overpaying for low-grade acquisitions) instead of returning cash to shareholders.

The tweet simply mentions

Gold is off... because it was very well bought so if you're de-risking the portfolio where you need to de-risk from the margin calls... The opportunity for buying the dip when it comes to gold equity providers. We still see the real long-term opportunity. The current selloff in gold is driven by immediate liquidity needs and margin calls across broader portfolios, not a change in fundamentals. The underlying stagflationary environment and geopolitical instability make gold miners highly attractive once the forced selling abates. LONG. Use the liquidity-driven selloff to accumulate gold miners at better valuations before the market refocuses on inflation hedging. A sustained spike in real yields and a relentlessly strong US dollar could keep gold prices depressed for longer than anticipated.

Newmont Mining pulled back to its long-term moving average within a powerful uptrend. This is a classic technical setup: a stock in a secular bull market revisiting support due to an exogenous event (market volatility). Buy the dip. It is a low-risk, high-reward entry point at the moving average. Gold prices reversing or the stock failing to hold the moving average support.

The author recommends avoiding Newmont stock based on three fundamental reasons detailed in the linked article.

The author is raising their price target on NEM, anticipating significant upside driven by a forecast of gold reaching $5100 and a target valuation of 14x P/E.

Newmont shares fell after the company said it expects to produce less bullion this year due to plant upgrades. While the macro environment for Gold is bullish (price >$5000), Newmont is facing operational execution issues. This creates a divergence between the commodity (Bullish) and the miner (Bearish/Execution risk). WATCH. If operational issues are resolved, it becomes a deep value play on gold prices; currently, it is an underperformer. Gold prices crash, exacerbating the production volume hit.

"Gold up above the 5000 key level... We are keeping an eye on Newmont shares... reporting revenue for the fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. Analysts are positive about the company's four-year forecast." The combination of geopolitical instability (Iran), the removal of deflationary tariff pressures (short-term), and strong company-specific guidance creates a perfect storm for precious metals and miners. Newmont specifically is pivoting from an operational drag (mine upgrades) to a period of forecasted growth. LONG. Gold is breaking psychological resistance ($5000), and NEM is fundamentally turning a corner. A sudden de-escalation in the Middle East or a hawkish Federal Reserve response to rising asset prices.

"You're in this trade with Newmont... To a certain extent in the trade with Freeport McMoRan, you get some gold there as well... The sell off was attributable to excessive speculation. I don't think it was attributable to any form of the shift in the fundamentals." The speaker identifies the recent dip in mining stocks as a technical correction caused by speculation rather than a structural failure. With the "debasement" narrative still driving the macro environment, holding top-tier miners like Newmont (pure gold) and Freeport-McMoRan (copper/gold mix) allows investors to catch the rebound as fundamentals reassert themselves. LONG A strengthening US Dollar or a hawkish shift in monetary policy could dampen the "debasement" thesis.

Allen notes that with gold at $4,000+, producers will post quarters that "absolutely destroy market expectation." A $1,000 rise in gold price adds $100M to the bottom line for a 100k oz producer. The market has not fully priced in the cash flow implications of sustained $4,000+ gold on major miners' balance sheets. An earnings beat of this magnitude typically forces institutional capital rotation into the sector. LONG. Major producers offer operating leverage to the underlying commodity price. Rising input costs (labor, energy) could eat into the projected margin expansion.

"These large cap gold miners are trading at probably 20-25% free cash flow yields. Like we've never seen that... We're not seeing cost pressure run up in the way that we did when gold price ran up in kind of 2009 to 2011." While gold is at $5,000, analyst consensus is still lagging (using ~$3,300 for long-term models). This creates a massive arbitrage where producers are printing cash with high margins before inflation eats into their OPEX. The market has not yet repriced these equities to reflect the permanence of the new gold price. Long senior producers to capture record free cash flow yields. Wage inflation and equipment costs rising rapidly to compress margins; governments imposing windfall taxes on miners.

Mowrey is overweight Materials and specifically discusses Gold Miners. He explains that once gold prices pass a certain threshold, miners become "money printing machines" due to fixed costs. Operating Leverage. If a miner's cost is fixed at $1,600/oz and gold moves from $2,000 to $2,400, the profit margin expands disproportionately (e.g., earnings double on a 20% move in the commodity). Current gold prices suggest miners could grow earnings 130-140%. LONG. A sharp reversal in gold prices would immediately crush the earnings growth thesis, as miners are a levered bet on the metal.

Skousen mentions "Kinross Gold... Avino Silver... Newmont... have just gone through the roof" but believes the secular bull market continues due to supply shortages (silver coins being melted down). The "wealth effect" and "Trump accounts" (retail inflows) are chasing performance. With silver specifically facing a physical shortage (US Mint suspending production) and high industrial use in chips, miners offer leveraged exposure to the metal price. LONG specific miners (Kinross, Avino, Newmont) to capture the leverage on continued metal price appreciation. Windfall profit taxes or nationalization risks in foreign jurisdictions; rising energy costs hurting mining margins.

1. THE FACT: Minervini's longs have been "performing really well." Top gainers include: $MBX, $NEM, $ATI, $ROIV, $DRD and $TSLA. "All but one of our 10 longs are positive." 2. THE BRIDGE: Strong performance and positive returns on these individual long positions indicate upward momentum and potential for continued gains, even in a market that feels "heavy" (as mentioned in tweet 4). This suggests these stocks are showing relative strength. 3. THE VERDICT: Long MBX, NEM, ATI, ROIV, DRD, and TSLA due to strong recent performance.

1. THE FACT: Minervini explicitly states he added these names long, noting that ROIV is "up nicely this morning." 2. THE BRIDGE: These are specific long positions taken by a successful trader, indicating potential upside in these individual stocks. The mention of ROIV being up nicely provides immediate positive feedback on one of the trades. 3. THE VERDICT: Minervini has initiated long positions in TSM, AVGO, NEM, ATI, F, and ROIV, suggesting bullish sentiment on these specific tickers.