Supreme Court Axes Trump Tariffs | Balance of Power: Early Edition 2/20/2026
Speakers
Summary
- The Supreme Court has struck down President Trump's use of IEEPA for broad tariffs, ruling he exceeded his authority. This invalidates roughly 70% of his tariff policies.
- Markets are staging a relief rally: S&P 500 (+0.4%), Nasdaq (+0.7%), and Gold (>$5000) are rising as immediate trade cost pressures alleviate.
- The Administration is pivoting to "Plan B," utilizing Section 301, 232, and 122. While these tools are slower and require investigations, the White House insists tariffs will remain a core policy.
- A geopolitical "Wag the Dog" scenario is developing: Significant military buildup in the Gulf (two aircraft carriers) suggests an imminent strike on Iran, potentially to shift the narrative from the legal defeat.
Trade Ideas
"Gold up above the 5000 key level... We are keeping an eye on Newmont shares... reporting revenue for the fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. Analysts are positive about the company's four-year forecast." The combination of geopolitical instability (Iran), the removal of deflationary tariff pressures (short-term), and strong company-specific guidance creates a perfect storm for precious metals and miners. Newmont specifically is pivoting from an operational drag (mine upgrades) to a period of forecasted growth. LONG. Gold is breaking psychological resistance ($5000), and NEM is fundamentally turning a corner. A sudden de-escalation in the Middle East or a hawkish Federal Reserve response to rising asset prices.
"While Walmart's fourth-quarter results were solid... the outlook for 2026 is surprisingly weak given solid trends." Even with the potential tariff relief from the SCOTUS ruling, the largest retailer is signaling demand destruction or margin compression for the year ahead. Macro relief (no tariffs) is not outweighing micro reality (weak guidance). AVOID. Do not chase the broad market rally into stocks that have explicitly guided down. Consumer sentiment could rebound faster than management expects if inflation drops significantly due to the tariff removal.
Joe Mathieu
Host, Bloomberg Radio
"U.S. stocks are rising after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the President's tariffs... S&P 500 is higher... Nasdaq Composite Index up 7/10 of a percent." The market is repricing the immediate removal of a massive tax on corporate earnings (tariffs). The "relief rally" is driven by the elimination of the IEEPA threat, which was blunt and unpredictable. LONG (Tactical). The immediate reaction is bullish as cost-of-goods-sold expectations drop for importers. The "Plan B" (Section 301/232) implementation could re-introduce volatility later, or the "refund process" for collected tariffs could become a liquidity mess for the Treasury.
Annmarie Hordern
Bloomberg Reporter
"Look at the military buildup in the Gulf and by Saturday, you will have a second U.S. aircraft carrier. We have not seen this type of hardware in the Middle East since 2003... The President said yesterday, 10 to 15 days was the timeline." The Supreme Court loss increases the political incentive for the President to "change the subject" via foreign policy. A strike on Iran is highly probable given the hardware placement. This threatens oil supply chains (bullish WTI) and benefits defense contractors. LONG. This is a classic geopolitical hedge trade. Diplomatic breakthrough or the President deciding to focus solely on legislative tariff fixes instead of military action.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 20, 2026, features Joe Mathieu, Annmarie Hordern discussing NEM, GOLD, WMT, SPY, QQQ, WTI, ITA. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Joe Mathieu, Annmarie Hordern · Tickers: NEM, GOLD, WMT, SPY, QQQ, WTI, ITA