Norah Mulinda

Gold and Silver are both advancing while US stocks (S&P 500, Nasdaq) are falling and Bitcoin is lower. With the VIX at a 21 handle and a massive military buildup occurring in the Middle East, capital is rotating out of risk assets (Tech/Crypto) and into traditional hard asset safe havens. LONG GLD and SLV as geopolitical hedges. A sudden diplomatic resolution with Iran (Trump mentions a "10-day window" for a deal) could unwind the fear premium.

Deere (DE) shares are up double-digits after boosting its annual profit outlook. Management explicitly anticipates a "long-awaited upturn in the agriculture economy." This signals a cyclical bottom has formed in the Ag sector, making DE a prime beneficiary of the recovery. LONG. Momentum play on the cyclical recovery of agricultural capex. Crop prices fall unexpectedly, reducing farmer income and equipment demand.

"Shares of Oracle, the stock is higher on the day, up as much as 15%... A company that reported strong sales, and an outlook that speaks to continued demand for AI." While the market worries about an AI bubble, legacy enterprise tech companies that successfully integrate AI infrastructure are seeing actual top-line revenue growth. The massive CapEx being spent on AI is translating into tangible enterprise cloud demand. LONG. Oracle is proving that AI monetization is real and scaling, making it a safer, cash-flowing play on the AI infrastructure buildout. Broader macroeconomic stagflation could force enterprise customers to slash IT budgets, slowing Oracle's cloud growth.

OpenAI is scaling back plans to embed native shopping/checkout for travel within ChatGPT, pivoting instead to referring users out to partners. The market feared ChatGPT would become a "super app" that disintermediates OTAs (Online Travel Agencies). This reversal removes a massive existential threat, validating the "moat" of the incumbents. Long the OTA sector on a relief rally and reduced disruption risk. OpenAI reverses course again or another AI competitor successfully integrates native booking.

OpenAI is scaling back plans to embed native shopping/checkout for travel within ChatGPT, pivoting instead to referring users out to partners. The market feared ChatGPT would become a "super app" that disintermediates OTAs (Online Travel Agencies). This reversal removes a massive existential threat, validating the "moat" of the incumbents. Long the OTA sector on a relief rally and reduced disruption risk. OpenAI reverses course again or another AI competitor successfully integrates native booking.

OpenAI is scaling back plans to embed native shopping/checkout for travel within ChatGPT, pivoting instead to referring users out to partners. The market feared ChatGPT would become a "super app" that disintermediates OTAs (Online Travel Agencies). This reversal removes a massive existential threat, validating the "moat" of the incumbents. Long the OTA sector on a relief rally and reduced disruption risk. OpenAI reverses course again or another AI competitor successfully integrates native booking.

Goldman strategists identify a "Halo Effect" where investors are fleeing AI/Tech due to obsolescence fears and buying "heavy assets" like Utilities and Resources. The Anthropic blacklist exacerbates the "AI Fear" trade. Investors want tangible assets that the Pentagon cannot "turn off" with a tweet. Utilities (powering AI data centers) and Materials become the safety trade. LONG. Follow the flow of funds out of software and into hardware/infrastructure. If interest rates spike, utilities (bond proxies) will suffer.

Goldman strategists identify a "Halo Effect" where investors are fleeing AI/Tech due to obsolescence fears and buying "heavy assets" like Utilities and Resources. The Anthropic blacklist exacerbates the "AI Fear" trade. Investors want tangible assets that the Pentagon cannot "turn off" with a tweet. Utilities (powering AI data centers) and Materials become the safety trade. LONG. Follow the flow of funds out of software and into hardware/infrastructure. If interest rates spike, utilities (bond proxies) will suffer.

Carlyle is raising "$200 billion" and targeting "$2 billion of fee-related earnings." The firm is successfully pivoting under new leadership (Harvey Schwartz) to capture the private credit and wealth channel boom. The ambitious targets are being viewed as a "credibility test" that the market is currently buying into. LONG CG. Failure to meet fundraising targets or a credit event in the private markets.

Meta announced it would buy AMD's chips to run AI models, a deal worth "double digit billions." This validates AMD's technology as a viable alternative to Nvidia for hyperscalers and secures a massive revenue stream from a top-tier buyer. LONG AMD (supplier) and META (user securing compute capacity). Execution risks in chip deployment or AI model performance.

Meta announced it would buy AMD's chips to run AI models, a deal worth "double digit billions." This validates AMD's technology as a viable alternative to Nvidia for hyperscalers and secures a massive revenue stream from a top-tier buyer. LONG AMD (supplier) and META (user securing compute capacity). Execution risks in chip deployment or AI model performance.

The Supreme Court struck down the President's global tariffs. Apple shares rose sharply (hitting ~$265) because they recognized $3 billion in tariff charges last year. The removal of the illegal tariffs immediately boosts margins for major importers and tech hardware companies. While Trump threatens new tariffs, the immediate legal victory removes a massive cost overhang for Apple and the broader tech sector (Nasdaq +1%). LONG AAPL and Tech Indices as beneficiaries of the court ruling. Trump successfully implements the new 10% global tariff under Section 122 within 3 days.

Live Nation reported revenue that topped estimates and analysts are positive on the full-year forecast. Despite the "weak consumer" narrative hitting Walmart, the "experience economy" remains resilient. Strong concert business guidance suggests consumers are still prioritizing services/experiences over goods. LONG LYV on earnings strength and sector resilience. Consumer spending cliff eventually hits discretionary entertainment.

The Supreme Court struck down the President's global tariffs. Apple shares rose sharply (hitting ~$265) because they recognized $3 billion in tariff charges last year. The removal of the illegal tariffs immediately boosts margins for major importers and tech hardware companies. While Trump threatens new tariffs, the immediate legal victory removes a massive cost overhang for Apple and the broader tech sector (Nasdaq +1%). LONG AAPL and Tech Indices as beneficiaries of the court ruling. Trump successfully implements the new 10% global tariff under Section 122 within 3 days.

The Supreme Court struck down the President's global tariffs. Apple shares rose sharply (hitting ~$265) because they recognized $3 billion in tariff charges last year. The removal of the illegal tariffs immediately boosts margins for major importers and tech hardware companies. While Trump threatens new tariffs, the immediate legal victory removes a massive cost overhang for Apple and the broader tech sector (Nasdaq +1%). LONG AAPL and Tech Indices as beneficiaries of the court ruling. Trump successfully implements the new 10% global tariff under Section 122 within 3 days.