Supreme Court Axes Trump's Tariffs | Bloomberg Businessweek Daily 2/20/2026
Speakers
Summary
- Supreme Court Strikes Down Tariffs: The SCOTUS ruled 6-3 that President Trump exceeded his authority with previous global tariffs. Markets rallied (S&P +0.6%, Nasdaq +1%) on the removal of this overhang.
- Trump's Counter-Move (Section 122): Defiant in defeat, Trump plans to invoke Section 122 for a 10% across-the-board tariff starting in three days, and Section 301 for unfair trade practices. He also threatened 200% tariffs on specific uncooperative nations.
- War with Iran "Probable": National security experts assess a high probability of US military action against Iran within 10-14 days due to a massive buildup of naval assets (carriers, destroyers) and failed diplomacy.
- Stagflationary Data: Economic prints were messy—GDP growth was lower than expected (partially due to shutdown), but inflation (PCE) came in "quite hot," forcing the Fed to consider raising rates rather than cutting.
- Private Credit Cracks: Blue Owl (OWL) restricted fund withdrawals, signaling liquidity stress in the private credit market, causing the stock to tumble.
Trade Ideas
Newmont shares fell after the company said it expects to produce less bullion this year due to plant upgrades. While the macro environment for Gold is bullish (price >$5000), Newmont is facing operational execution issues. This creates a divergence between the commodity (Bullish) and the miner (Bearish/Execution risk). WATCH. If operational issues are resolved, it becomes a deep value play on gold prices; currently, it is an underperformer. Gold prices crash, exacerbating the production volume hit.
Gold is trading above $5,000, up 1.5% on the day. Experts see war with Iran as "probable" in 10-14 days. The combination of "hot" inflation data (sticky at 3%+) and imminent kinetic warfare in the Middle East creates a perfect storm for safe-haven assets. Gold is acting as the primary hedge against both geopolitical chaos and monetary debasement. LONG GOLD as a war and inflation hedge. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough with Iran or a hawkish Fed crushing inflation expectations.
Walmart (WMT) shares declined for a 4th straight day. HSBC cut the recommendation to HOLD, citing a "surprisingly weak" outlook for 2026 despite solid past trends. The "K-shaped recovery" is weighing on the company. With inflation remaining "hot" (per Olu Sonola) and growth slowing, the low-end consumer is squeezed. Weak guidance from a bellwether like Walmart suggests the consumer recession is deepening. SHORT WMT on deteriorating fundamentals and weak guidance. Defensive rotation into consumer staples if the war narrative escalates.
The Supreme Court struck down the President's global tariffs. Apple shares rose sharply (hitting ~$265) because they recognized $3 billion in tariff charges last year. The removal of the illegal tariffs immediately boosts margins for major importers and tech hardware companies. While Trump threatens new tariffs, the immediate legal victory removes a massive cost overhang for Apple and the broader tech sector (Nasdaq +1%). LONG AAPL and Tech Indices as beneficiaries of the court ruling. Trump successfully implements the new 10% global tariff under Section 122 within 3 days.
Blue Owl (OWL) shares are down 27% YTD and fell further after restricting withdrawals from one of its funds. This is a "cockroach" moment for the Private Credit sector. The restriction of withdrawals indicates liquidity mismatches and investor flight. When a major player gates a fund, it often triggers contagion fears across the asset class as retail investors panic. AVOID/SHORT Blue Owl and the broader Private Credit sector. The withdrawal gate proves to be an isolated operational issue rather than systemic.
Norah Mulinda
Bloomberg Market Reporter
Live Nation reported revenue that topped estimates and analysts are positive on the full-year forecast. Despite the "weak consumer" narrative hitting Walmart, the "experience economy" remains resilient. Strong concert business guidance suggests consumers are still prioritizing services/experiences over goods. LONG LYV on earnings strength and sector resilience. Consumer spending cliff eventually hits discretionary entertainment.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 20, 2026, features Norah Mulinda, Denitsa Tsekova discussing OR, GOLD, WMT, AAPL, QQQ, SPY, BKLN, OWL, LYV. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Norah Mulinda, Denitsa Tsekova · Tickers: OR, GOLD, WMT, AAPL, QQQ, SPY, BKLN, OWL, LYV