The Financial Crisis Of 2026: Economists Sound Alarm Bells | Hanke & Skousen
Speakers
Summary
- The US economy is exhibiting a divergence: GDP is growing (driven by wealthy consumer spending/wealth effect), but Gross Output (business supply chain) is stagnant or declining in real terms.
- Inflation is expected to accelerate due to the Federal Reserve monetizing the deficit (buying T-bills) and banks increasing loan growth; the "inflation genie" is out of the bottle.
- Geopolitical tensions with Iran are escalating, with a high probability of the Strait of Hormuz closing, driving oil prices significantly higher (WTI >$65).
- A "melt-up" in commodities is underway; while Gold and Silver have hit highs, the speakers argue Copper and Uranium now offer superior upside potential due to industrial AI/Data Center demand.
Trade Ideas
Skousen is "100% invested in the markets" and cites the "Trump accounts" where 25 million Americans may invest $1,000 each into the S&P 500. Government policy is directly incentivizing retail capital flows into the broad index. Combined with the "wealth effect" of the top 20% of earners, this creates a liquidity floor that supports equity prices despite macro headwinds. LONG Broad Market (SPY) to front-run the government-subsidized retail inflows. Stagflation (slow growth + stubborn inflation) eventually eroding corporate margins; a "sell the news" event on the actual implementation of the accounts.
Skousen explicitly states, "I think copper stocks like Southern Copper have a very good chance of making better money now at this point than your gold and silver plays." While precious metals are held as hedges, Copper is a critical industrial input for the AI and data center boom (infrastructure build-out). Since gold/silver have already "exploded," the risk/reward ratio has shifted to industrial metals which have high demand backlogs. LONG Southern Copper (SCCO) as a play on AI infrastructure and catch-up performance relative to precious metals. A tech sector sell-off could temporarily dampen sentiment, though physical demand remains high.
Mark Skousen
Founder/Editor, The Skousen Report
Skousen states, "Uranium and nuclear stocks have a better upside potential... uranium prices are now approaching $90 per pound." Hanke adds interest in SMRs (Small Modular Reactors). The energy demands of AI and the "Fortress America" industrial policy require baseload power. With uranium prices elevated and supply constraints real, the miners and reactor tech companies are the second-derivative play on the AI energy crisis. LONG Uranium sector (URA) and major producers (CCJ) as the "better alternative" to crowded gold trades. Regulatory hurdles or nuclear accidents; failure of SMR technology to scale.
Mark Skousen
Founder/Editor, The Skousen Report
Skousen mentions "Kinross Gold... Avino Silver... Newmont... have just gone through the roof" but believes the secular bull market continues due to supply shortages (silver coins being melted down). The "wealth effect" and "Trump accounts" (retail inflows) are chasing performance. With silver specifically facing a physical shortage (US Mint suspending production) and high industrial use in chips, miners offer leveraged exposure to the metal price. LONG specific miners (Kinross, Avino, Newmont) to capture the leverage on continued metal price appreciation. Windfall profit taxes or nationalization risks in foreign jurisdictions; rising energy costs hurting mining margins.
Steve Hanke
Professor of Applied Economics, Johns Hopkins University
Hanke notes an "armada going in to start a war with Iran" and predicts "the Strait of Hormuz will definitely be closed." The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil supply. A closure would cause an immediate, violent supply shock, sending crude prices (WTI) significantly higher from the current $65 level. LONG Oil (USO) and Energy Producers (XLE) as a geopolitical hedge. Diplomatic resolution or de-escalation would cause the war premium to evaporate quickly.
Mark Skousen
Founder/Editor, The Skousen Report
Skousen notes the Argentine stock market is at an all-time high, the budget is balanced, and foreign investment is returning. Despite Hanke's skepticism about the currency, the market is rewarding the libertarian shock therapy and deregulation. The return of foreign capital signals a risk-on environment for Argentine assets. LONG Argentina (ARGT) as a contrarian emerging market play. Hanke counters that the "Achilles heel is the Peso" and capital flight remains high (70%); failure to dollarize could lead to a currency collapse.
Up Next
This The David Lin Report video, published February 02, 2026, features Mark Skousen, Steve Hanke discussing SPY, SCCO, URA, CCJ, KGC, ASM, NEM, USO, XLE, ARGT. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Mark Skousen, Steve Hanke · Tickers: SPY, SCCO, URA, CCJ, KGC, ASM, NEM, USO, XLE, ARGT