Helen Jewell 5.0 7 ideas

Speaker remains "very positive on European banks" and overweight, citing their strong capital, the capital being returned to shareholders, rigor on balance sheets, and valuations that "still don't look actually stretched." The driver is fundamental (capital return) rather than the peripheral private credit story. The bank's resilience and attractive shareholder returns are seen as structural advantages that persist despite geopolitical volatility. LONG based on strong fundamentals and attractive valuation relative to the structural growth story, even after a good 12-month performance. A severe economic downturn triggered by the energy crisis that impairs credit quality and capital positions.

Speaker cites defence as a "structural winner" and remains "cautiously overweight." The Middle East conflict has underwritten the need for continued defence spending, with governments wanting to source locally. Geopolitical tensions are reinforcing a multi-year trend of increased national defence budgets. This provides a visible, long-duration revenue stream for defence contractors. LONG due to the structural, government-backed demand tailwind. The caution is due to valuations that are "a little bit more difficult to justify" rather than the thesis itself. A rapid and sustained detente in global geopolitics leading to budget reallocation away from defence.

Gold is off... because it was very well bought so if you're de-risking the portfolio where you need to de-risk from the margin calls... The opportunity for buying the dip when it comes to gold equity providers. We still see the real long-term opportunity. The current selloff in gold is driven by immediate liquidity needs and margin calls across broader portfolios, not a change in fundamentals. The underlying stagflationary environment and geopolitical instability make gold miners highly attractive once the forced selling abates. LONG. Use the liquidity-driven selloff to accumulate gold miners at better valuations before the market refocuses on inflation hedging. A sustained spike in real yields and a relentlessly strong US dollar could keep gold prices depressed for longer than anticipated.

The first is the energy space... we see what we are focused on the moment is the importance of energy independence. With the Strait of Hormuz closed and oil prices surging past $100, energy companies will generate massive windfall profits. Furthermore, the geopolitical premium will force governments and investors to prioritize energy independence, driving sustained capital into the sector. LONG. Energy stocks provide a natural hedge against the current geopolitical and inflation shock while benefiting from structural shifts toward energy security. A sudden diplomatic de-escalation or a coordinated, massive release of strategic petroleum reserves that crashes the price of crude.