10-year US Treasuries Loading... : Investor Sentiment and Bull/Bear Views
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03:21
Sep 16
Sep 16
Buy Treasuries above 5.1% yield.
Fair value for US rates is around 5.1%; above that level US Treasuries become increasingly attractive to buy, and a sharp further spike is unlikely because buyers emerge.
MED
13:08
Aug 24
Aug 24
Buy 10-year Treasuries at 5% yield.
She sees the 10-year Treasury in a trading range with the high end around 4.70%-4.75%. If yields reach 5%, she says that would be a buying opportunity because equity markets cannot function well beyond that level and it would tighten financial conditions.
HIGH
15:03
Aug 17
Aug 17
Long-end Treasury yields will continue to rise.
The market is underappreciating sticky inflation and rising term premiums, which will cause long-end Treasury yields to rise concurrently with the short end.
MED
13:45
Aug 15
Aug 15
Long-term Treasuries face higher yields.
US long-term Treasuries are unattractive because inflation remains above target, government debt is near record, deficits are large, and heavy issuance has eroded the Treasury convenience yield. With Japan the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries, any yen-defense selling could push yields higher. Recent 10-year and 30-year auctions cleared at the highest yields since 2007 and 2001, confirming rising borrowing costs. This supports short long-term US Treasuries.
HIGH
15:21
Aug 14
Aug 14
10-year Treasuries are preferable to 30-year.
Comfortable taking 10-year Treasury risk over the long end, as it is less exposed to the extreme fiscal deficit concerns impacting the 30-year.
MED
13:00
Aug 01
Aug 01
Yields rising, Fed should hike rates.
The bond market is driving yields higher independently of the Fed, with the 10-year near 4.7%, and the Treasury nearing 5% on 10-year notes. High deficits and an overheated economy keep pressure on the long end. The Fed should take back last year's cuts with two quarter-point hikes to confirm the market's message, otherwise credibility is at risk.
MED
22:29
Jan 28
Jan 28
10-year Treasury yields stay range-bound
Long-end coupon issuance is expected to remain stable and Fed bill buying is keeping term premiums contained, so 10-year Treasury yields should stay range-bound absent a catalyst.
MED
21:07
Jan 13
Jan 13
Fed attacks raise long-end yields
Luzzetti says the DOJ probe into the Fed is an unprecedented challenge to Fed independence; attacks on the Fed have been counterproductive because long-end yields and mortgage rates rise rather than fall. Even if the Fed cuts aggressively, the long end may not decline, and Senator Tillis blocking Fed appointees could leave Powell on the board and prevent more dovish Fed members.
HIGH
22:19
Jun 19
Jun 19
Long-end Treasury yields to punch 5%.
He expects tariff-related inflation and better nominal growth to push long-end yields higher over time. The bond market is near fair value rather than rich, but fair value itself will move higher, with the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields likely punching through 5%; timing is uncertain and an immediate tariff-driven selloff is not guaranteed.
HIGH
19:46
Jun 05
Jun 05
Prefer short duration over long Treasuries
He worries Washington may not reduce the deficit enough and that bond vigilantes could push 10-year Treasury yields to 5-8%, so he prefers shorter-duration fixed income, including CLOs, where investors can earn about 4.5% on the short end without taking long-duration Treasury risk.
HIGH
03:13
Mar 08
Mar 08
Long 10-year Treasuries as inflation slows.
Hanke recommends long 10-year US Treasuries because the money supply has been contracting since June 2022, which should continue slowing the economy and inflation. Bond yields follow inflation, so falling inflation should pull yields lower and lift bond prices for capital gains. He notes the 10-year yield has already dropped from about 4.8% and sees headroom toward the prior low near 3.6%, with recession risk, weak confidence, and trade-war uncertainty reinforcing the long-bond trade.
HIGH
04:36
Jan 05
Jan 05
10-year yield rangebound 4.25-4.75%
BofA's rates team expects the 10-year Treasury yield to toggle between roughly 4.25% and 4.75%, not break above 5% based on the inflation outlook and not fall below 4% unless there is a risk of deflation. The range reflects inflation expectations, tariffs, anti-immigration labor effects, economic strength, animal spirits, M&A, and consumer spending.
HIGH
About 10-year US Treasuries Investor Commentary
Across the available history and selected sources, Buzzberg tracks 10-year US Treasuries across 5 sources: 4 bullish vs 5 bearish calls from 12 authors. Historical directional balance: -8% = 100 × (bullish − bearish) / all deduplicated idea records, including other directions. This is neither a probability of a price rise nor the share of bullish authors. 12 total trade ideas tracked. Past 7 days, before deduplication: 1 bullish. Latest voices: Kim Hyojin, Anne Walsh, Darrell Cronk.