Ideas
Fiscal cuts may weaken US equities
He is cautious on US equities because the US budget deficit is unsustainable and expected spending cuts could reduce fiscal stimulus and economic growth in the second half of 2025. He also worries bond vigilantes could push 10-year yields to 5-8%, pressuring equities, though he is not saying to exit the market entirely.
Gold is key portfolio protection
Gold is a store of value with effectively fixed supply and acts as portfolio protection against the US fiscal reckoning, Social Security default risk, dollar debasement, and de-dollarization. He says gold is in a secular appreciation cycle, has low volatility and strong performance, and should be the largest part of a roughly 10% real-assets allocation.
India is a multi-year diversifier
India's business reforms and digitization under Modi can make it as large as continental Europe in about 10 years and the fourth major consumer market after the US, Europe, and China. Its growth also reinforces de-dollarization and demand for gold, and India serves as a multi-year diversifier for portfolios.
Bitcoin is digital gold diversifier
Bitcoin is digital gold and a store of value because its supply is capped and its inflation schedule is programmed, while continued US debt and dollar issuance should lift the dollar price of Bitcoin and gold. Although Bitcoin's correlation to the Nasdaq has risen since COVID, he still sees it as a long-term diversifier and secular appreciation asset; Bitcoin is the dominant crypto asset with no clear competitor, and VanEck offers HODL for exposure, with 2-5% allocations in aggressive portfolios.
Gold shares are a smaller allocation
Within the real-assets allocation, gold bullion is the largest weight because of strong performance and low volatility, while gold shares are a much smaller allocation at roughly a 3:1 ratio of bullion to gold shares. VanEck's gold-mining ETFs, GDX and GDXJ, are the implementation vehicles he cites.
GPZ is pure-play private asset managers
GPZ is a pure-play ETF on the managers of private equity and private credit funds, benefiting from the secular shift of companies staying private and lending moving away from banks to private credit vehicles. Private wealth allocations to private credit and private equity could grow from about 2% to 10%, and the ETF offers diversified exposure to managers such as Blackstone, Apollo, and Ares.
Nuclear gains from policy and AI demand
Nuclear power is seeing a global policy reversal: it is 24/7 and carbon-free, Biden-era legislation and Democratic governors began supporting it, and Trump executive orders are speeding permitting and federal-land use. AI/data-center electricity demand is rising after decades of flat US demand, with natural gas as a short-term power source and nuclear for the medium/long term; VanEck's ETF provides holistic exposure to nuclear utilities, SMR technology companies, and uranium miners. He is slightly bullish despite rich valuations and 3-5 year plant timelines.
Prefer short duration over long Treasuries
He worries Washington may not reduce the deficit enough and that bond vigilantes could push 10-year Treasury yields to 5-8%, so he prefers shorter-duration fixed income, including CLOs, where investors can earn about 4.5% on the short end without taking long-duration Treasury risk.
Prefer short duration over long Treasuries
He worries Washington may not reduce the deficit enough and that bond vigilantes could push 10-year Treasury yields to 5-8%, so he prefers shorter-duration fixed income, including CLOs, where investors can earn about 4.5% on the short end without taking long-duration Treasury risk.
This The David Lin Report video, published June 05, 2025,
features Jan van Eck
discussing SPY, GLD, INDA, BTC, HODL, GDX, GDXJ, GPZ, URA, SHY, JAAA, 10-year US Treasuries.
9 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Jan van Eck
· Tickers:
SPY,
GLD,
INDA,
BTC,
HODL,
GDX,
GDXJ,
GPZ,
URA,
SHY,
JAAA,
10-year US Treasuries
