Ideas
Fed may hike; short US Treasuries
With fiscal expansion, the AI/data-center boom, and inflation around 3%, growth could accelerate and inflation stay sticky. That means the Fed may not cut and could eventually have to hike, pushing long-end yields higher.
Easy conditions support US stock market
Easy financial conditions, tight credit spreads, record corporate profits, a Fed easing bias, and a softer dollar create a good environment for the stock market.
Yield curve steepener is the big call
The economy may outperform and inflation may not fall as fast as expected, while a Fed shift to easier policy sooner than later would lift long-end yields, so the Treasury yield curve should steepen.
10-year Treasury yields stay range-bound
Long-end coupon issuance is expected to remain stable and Fed bill buying is keeping term premiums contained, so 10-year Treasury yields should stay range-bound absent a catalyst.
Curve to steepen as front end falls
The 10-year Treasury has been stable in a range, and as the new Fed chair eventually brings front-end rates down, the curve should continue to steepen while long-end yields remain range-bound.
Bob Michele
CIO and Head of Global Fixed Income, J.P. Morgan Asset Management
41:04
Bonds and credit are ideal now
The yield curve looks about perfectly priced, with the bond market already reflecting reasonably good economic activity and disinflationary forces from tariffs, spending, and AI, making it an ideal market for bonds including credit.
Bob Michele
CIO and Head of Global Fixed Income, J.P. Morgan Asset Management
42:53
Big Tech earnings should be strong
Big Tech earnings will not only show their own strength but also reveal broad business demand for AI, supporting good earnings and forward guidance.
Bob Michele
CIO and Head of Global Fixed Income, J.P. Morgan Asset Management
45:44
Sell-America trade is wrong; buy US assets
The sell-America trade is hogwash: global investors are not diversifying away from US assets, and the depth and size of the US market make it the best place to exercise fiduciary duty.
Buy US dollar assets and AI
Foreign investors keep buying US dollar assets because they offer higher returns and AI exposure that European stocks do not provide, so the sell-America narrative is overdone.
No more Fed cuts under Powell
The data are improving, inflation is running around 3%, and the labor market should improve, so the Fed is no longer cutting and there will be no more cuts under Powell, making it tough to move policy in the first meetings.
No Fed cut for six months
The bond market has the near-term pricing right: with labor-market downside risks removed and the Fed's assessment upgraded, there should be no real move toward a cut over the next six months, with easing more likely in the back half of the year.
AI slowdown would be economy's big risk
AI is what is driving markets and is required for the economy to keep moving ahead; if AI capex slows materially, the economy would be in big trouble.
This Bloomberg Markets video, published January 28, 2026,
features Torsten Slok, Kathy Jones, Subadra Rajappa, Richard Clarida, Bob Michele, Stephanie Roth, Jeffrey Rosenberg
discussing TLT, SPY, 10-year US Treasuries, US bonds, XLK, US assets, US dollar assets, AI-SECTOR.
12 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Torsten Slok,
Kathy Jones,
Subadra Rajappa,
Richard Clarida,
Bob Michele,
Stephanie Roth,
Jeffrey Rosenberg
· Tickers:
TLT,
SPY,
10-year US Treasuries,
US bonds,
XLK,
US assets,
US dollar assets,
AI-SECTOR
