Tom Keene 3.4 7 ideas

Amidst the chaos of the attacks, Tom Keene explicitly states, "When in doubt, follow the Swiss Franc. That will be the meter here." In times of geopolitical crisis involving nuclear powers and major oil chokepoints, capital flees risk assets and moves to traditional safe havens. The Swiss Franc and Gold are the primary beneficiaries of this fear trade. LONG Safe Havens (CHF, Gold, USD, Treasuries). If the conflict is contained quickly, the risk premium will evaporate, reversing these trades.

Tom Keene notes that Bitcoin is trading down (under the 63k/59k level) as the news breaks. Despite the "digital gold" narrative, Bitcoin often correlates with risk assets (Nasdaq) during initial geopolitical shocks. Liquidity is pulled to cover margin or flee to fiat/sovereign bonds. SHORT/AVOID in the immediate aftermath of the attack. Bitcoin decoupling and acting as a censorship-resistant store of value if the banking system is threatened.

"This is a Mizuno baseball glove... popping a 25% tariff until they make it... Those tariffs, I guess, are going to come down." Specific high-quality imports (like Japanese baseball gloves) have been crushed by 25% duties. The court ruling implies these costs will drop significantly (potentially back toward 6-9%). This directly boosts margins for Japanese exporters and US distributors of these specific goods. Long the specific exporters or the consumer discretionary names that rely on high-end Asian manufacturing, as their pricing power or margins will improve. Retaliatory non-tariff barriers (EPA regulations) replace the financial tariffs.