|
Feb 19
|
|
$97.74
$97.74
-0.0%
|
LONG
|
@ReutersBiz
|
The Federal Reserve's apparent lack of urgency to cut interest rates provides support for the US Dollar. This suggests the currency may continue to strengthen. |
@ReutersBiz
Dollar perks up as Fed appears in no rush to ...
|
|
Feb 18
|
|
$97.70
$97.74
+0.0%
|
N/A
|
Finnhub News
|
— |
Finnhub - DXY
U.S. Dollar Is Mostly Firmer, Amid Weak Convi...
|
|
Feb 18
|
|
$97.70
$97.74
+0.0%
|
LONG
|
@
|
The dollar is gaining against the yen, indicating continued upward momentum for the USD/JPY pair. |
@FirstSquawk
Gold Edges Higher on Likely Technical Recover...
|
|
Feb 17
|
|
$97.16
$97.74
+0.6%
|
SHORT
|
Kamakshya Trivedi
Head of Global FX and Interest Rates, Goldman Sachs
|
GS views the Dollar as "overvalued" based on their metrics, supported previously by "exceptional market performance" in the US which is now normalizing. As US exceptionalism fades relative to the rest of the world and the Fed cuts rates (2 cuts forecasted), the yield differential support for the USD erodes. SHORT USD (expecting moderate depreciation). US inflation re-accelerates, forcing the Fed to hold rates higher for longer. |
Bloomberg Markets
India Seeks Role in AI Future As Modi Hosts F...
|
|
Feb 17
|
|
$97.16
$97.74
+0.6%
|
N/A
|
Finnhub News
|
— |
Finnhub - DXY
U.K. Unemployment Rises And Private Pay Incre...
|
|
Feb 16
|
|
$96.88
$97.74
+0.9%
|
SHORT
|
Adam Lynn
Market Strategist / Guest Speaker
|
"If you take things like the dollar, people are trying to reduce dollar exposure, then Europe is a good avenue for people to look at." The diversification trade (buying Europe/Korea) requires selling USD to buy foreign currencies (EUR/KRW). If the "US Exceptionalism" trade fades, capital flows will reverse out of the Dollar, weakening it relative to peers. SHORT US Dollar as a function of global diversification flows. A global recession or geopolitical shock usually triggers a "flight to safety" into the USD. |
Bloomberg Markets
US Stocks to Lag European Peers on AI
|
|
Feb 16
|
|
$96.88
$97.74
+0.9%
|
N/A
|
Finnhub News
|
— |
Finnhub - DXY
Japanese Data Disappoint And Sends Yen Lower,...
|
|
Feb 15
|
|
$96.88
$97.74
+0.9%
|
LONG
|
Paul Krugman
Nobel Prize-winning Economist, Distinguished Professor, Publisher of the Paul Krugman Substack
|
Krugman states the dollar is the "money of monies" and replacing it is harder than imagined. He notes, "The issue is not that the dollar might be replaced by something else, but that the dollar might be replaced by nothing else." Despite fears of weaponization or deficits, there is no alternative (TINA). The Euro is too fragmented, and the RMB has capital controls. Therefore, betting on the dollar's collapse is betting against the structural reality of global finance. LONG USD as the continued global hegemon. A total breakdown of the international order leading to a fragmented, chaotic monetary system (Argentina-style loss of credibility). |
Monetary Matters
“A Huge Problem for Everybody” | Paul Krugman...
|
|
Feb 15
|
|
$96.88
$97.74
+0.9%
|
SHORT
|
@zerohedge
|
The Weak Dollar Narrative https://t.co/MK2ke5L9N5 |
@zerohedge
The Weak Dollar Narrative https://t.co/MK2ke5...
|
|
Feb 15
|
|
$96.88
$97.74
+0.9%
|
N/A
|
Finnhub News
|
— |
Finnhub - DXY
Week Ahead: SCOTUS Decision On Tariffs? 8 Fed...
|
|
Feb 14
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
@PeterLBrandt
|
Here is a textbook example of a Type 1 pattern
Silver on Nov 28 broke out of a 45 year pattern. Price never looked back. Anyone waiting for a volume confirmation just watched as as the boat sailed awa |
@PeterLBrandt
Here is a textbook example of a Type 1 patter...
|
|
Feb 14
|
|
$96.88
$97.74
+0.9%
|
SHORT
|
@unusual_whales
|
Trump: I could have the dollar’s value go and up down like a yo-yo https://t.co/U9Lmbp38oF |
@unusual_whales
Trump: I could have the dollar’s value go and...
|
|
Feb 13
|
|
$96.88
$97.74
+0.9%
|
SHORT
|
@financialjuice
|
Speculators turn most short US dollars since June 2025 - CFTC. |
@financialjuice
Speculators turn most short US dollars since ...
|
|
Feb 13
|
|
$26.82
$27.08
+1.0%
|
LONG
|
Donald Trump
President of the United States
|
"We have $18 trillion being invested right now in our country from other companies and countries... The King of Saudi Arabia... said 'now you have the hottest country anywhere in the world.'" If $18 trillion in foreign capital has entered the US in under a year, demand for the US Dollar (to facilitate these investments) and US assets (Equities/Real Estate) is at historic highs. This liquidity wall supports high equity valuations and a strong dollar despite high spending. Long US Dollar (UUP) and US Broad Equities (SPY) as the "capital magnet" thesis plays out. Global liquidity crisis or sudden capital flight if geopolitical stability fractures. |
CNBC
President Trump delivers remarks to the troop...
|
|
Feb 13
|
|
$26.82
$27.08
+1.0%
|
WATCH
|
CME Group
Narrator
|
"Will green back and oil correlations hold? Central bank surprises may bring big moves for WTI in 2026." Macro liquidity and currency strength are acting as primary drivers for energy prices. If the US Dollar (UUP) strengthens on central bank surprises, the inverse correlation suggests WTI will fall, regardless of physical fundamentals. WATCH. Monitor the correlation coefficient; if it breaks, the macro hedge relationship unravels. A decoupling of the USD/Commodity inverse correlation due to idiosyncratic supply shocks. |
Bloomberg Markets
Five Trends That Will Drive Energy Markets in...
|
|
Feb 13
|
|
$96.88
$97.74
+0.9%
|
SHORT
|
Jim Paulsen
Former Chief Investment Strategist, Paulsen Perspectives
|
Paulsen observes that "the dollar's come off" and money supply has picked up. As the Fed moves to ease policy to save the labor market, interest rate differentials will likely narrow, and increased money supply will put downward pressure on the currency. A weaker dollar is explicitly cited as a driver for the rotation into International Stocks. Short USD to play the easing cycle. Global instability driving a "flight to safety" back into the Dollar. |
CNBC
The economy overall is weaker than widely ant...
|
|
Feb 13
|
|
$96.88
$97.74
+0.9%
|
SHORT
|
Marco Papic
Chief Strategist (Implied Role based on context/known background)
|
"I do think that with China in particular, there is going to be a big bank deal this year that may include a currency component, which will put more downward pressure on the dollar." The administration is struggling with affordability and trade deficits. A negotiated deal to weaken the USD (and strengthen CNY) combined with a predicted reduction in tariffs (from 14.2% to 10%) removes structural support for a strong dollar. SHORT. Policy shifts favor a weaker greenback to aid exports and reduce inflation. Global instability driving a "flight to safety" into the Dollar, or the Fed keeping rates higher for longer. |
CNBC
Markets weigh geopolitics, tariffs and tech p...
|
|
Feb 13
|
|
$96.88
$97.74
+0.9%
|
N/A
|
Finnhub News
|
— |
Finnhub - DXY
The Dollar Is Firm Ahead Of January CPI
|
|
Feb 12
|
|
$96.93
$97.74
+0.8%
|
SHORT
|
Scott Wapner
Host, CNBC
|
Amundi, Europe's largest asset manager, said it would "cut US dollar assets over the coming year and expects the dollar to weaken further." The "Sell U.S." trade is fundamentally a currency trade. If global institutions diversify away from U.S. assets due to policy unpredictability and rate cuts (mentioned by Kevin Warsh/Trump), selling pressure on the USD will increase relative to foreign currencies. SHORT US Dollar (or unhedged international exposure). Flight to safety strengthens USD; other central banks cut rates faster than the Fed. |
CNBC
How to play the "sell U.S." trade
|
|
Feb 12
|
|
$96.93
$97.74
+0.8%
|
SHORT
|
Mark Cudmore
Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist
|
Strong US payroll data failed to push the Dollar significantly higher. The market's non-reaction to good news suggests the "pain trade" is lower. The world is structurally overexposed to the USD and looking to hedge/diversify. Li notes structural employment slowdowns relative to the Euro area. SHORT US DOLLAR (sell into rallies). A resurgence of US inflation forcing the Fed to hike or hold rates much longer than priced. |
Bloomberg Markets
Nuveen to Buy Schroders in Near £10 Billion D...
|
|
Feb 12
|
|
$96.93
$97.74
+0.8%
|
SHORT
|
Leon Ting
Head of Research, TokenInsight
|
The US Dollar has been on a weakening path against Asian currencies (Yen, Renminbi). A weaker dollar acts as a massive tailwind for Asian assets (making them cheaper for locals to hold and boosting export competitiveness). This supports the "Rotation to Asia" trade. SHORT. Fed keeps rates higher for longer due to strong jobs data (130k jobs added), forcing a dollar rally. |
Bloomberg Markets
Citi Eyes Big India Plans as US Banks Rush to...
|
|
Feb 12
|
|
$96.93
$97.74
+0.8%
|
SHORT
|
MLIV Guest
Market Strategist
|
"The world is overexposed to the dollar on a structural basis... The dollar is one year into a multiyear downtrend." Even "strong payrolls" failed to spike the dollar significantly. The speaker argues the reaction function is asymmetric: weak data hurts the dollar (cuts), and strong data also hurts the dollar (implies bad monetary policy/fiscal dominance). Sell rallies in the US DOLLAR. A massive geopolitical flight-to-safety event spiking demand for USD cash. |
Bloomberg Markets
US Yields Likely Have Higher to Climb: 3-Minu...
|
|
Feb 12
|
|
$96.93
$97.74
+0.8%
|
N/A
|
Finnhub News
|
— |
Finnhub - DXY
Consolidation Featured After Yesterday's Big ...
|
|
Feb 10
|
|
$96.80
$97.74
+1.0%
|
SHORT
|
Marc Chandler
Chief Market Strategist, Bannockburn Capital Markets
|
The speaker observes that while the bond market ignored China's warnings, the FX market did not. The Dollar was hit across the board, even against the Yen which was expected to weaken following Japanese election results. There are two forces at play: a cyclical pullback because the Dollar is overvalued, and a structural shift where investors are "selling the dollar as a hedge" due to lost trust in US leadership and supply chain control. Alphabet recently issued a 100-year bond in a foreign currency, signaling that even major US corporations are diversifying financing away from the Dollar. The move might be purely cyclical rather than the beginning of a total collapse of the Dollar's reserve status. |
CNBC
China signals leverage as markets downplay Tr...
|
|
Feb 10
|
|
$96.80
$97.74
+1.0%
|
SHORT
|
Geo Chen
Substack author, Fidenza Macro
|
The author identifies a secular dollar bear market driven by geopolitical trust erosion, Trump's trade policies, and active de-dollarization efforts by countries like China. Furthermore, incoming Fed Chair Warsh is expected to cut rates more aggressively than the market anticipates (to 2.50% vs. 3.10% terminal rate priced). Aggressive rate cuts by the Fed, combined with ongoing geopolitical pressures on the dollar's reserve status, will exert significant downward pressure on the USD, creating a short opportunity. Bet on a weaker US Dollar against a basket of currencies or specific pairs, anticipating a repricing of Fed rate expectations and continued de-dollarization trends. Warsh does not cut rates as aggressively; other major central banks cut rates even faster; unexpected global risk-off events could temporarily boost safe-haven demand for the USD. |
Fidenza Macro
The end of the bull market or just a pause fo...
|
|
Feb 09
|
|
$96.82
$97.74
+0.9%
|
SHORT
|
Peter Boockvar
Chief Investment Officer, BFG Wealth Partners
|
The dollar saw its worst performance since the early 70s in the first half of the previous year. The US economy is over-indexed in global markets (60% market cap vs 25% GDP). As capital flows out of the US to chase cheaper valuations abroad, selling pressure on the dollar continues. Foreigners are hedging dollar exposure at rates not seen before. A global crisis usually triggers a "flight to safety" into the US Dollar. |
CNBC
Dollar weakness was a major catalyst for glob...
|
|
Feb 09
|
|
$96.82
$97.74
+0.9%
|
WATCH
|
Ruchir Sharma
Chairman, Rockefeller International
|
The US Dollar is down nearly 2% to start the year and fell over 9% last year, signaling structural weakness. The US is running a massive current account deficit ($1.3 trillion) that is being plugged by "hot money" (portfolio investments of $1.6 trillion). If foreign investor sentiment wavers, the funding for this deficit dries up, pressuring the currency further. Pronounced declines in the currency over the last 12+ months despite the AI and productivity narrative. A "flight to safety" event usually boosts the USD regardless of fundamentals. |
CNBC
Rockefeller International’s Ruchir Sharma exp...
|
|
Feb 06
|
|
$27.01
$27.08
+0.3%
|
SHORT
|
Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
|
"Household income growth remains soft... likely to be supported by Easy Street policies ahead." "Job growth is running just above zero and seems to be sticking there." A stagnant labor market with soft income growth reduces the likelihood of the Fed tightening monetary policy and increases the probability of "Easy Street policies" (i.e., lower rates or a more accommodative stance). This dovish tilt, especially if other major central banks are perceived as relatively more hawkish or maintaining tighter policy, could lead to a weaker US Dollar. Short the US Dollar on expectations of continued accommodative monetary policy from the Fed due to a frozen labor market and soft income growth, which could diminish the dollar's yield advantage. Other central banks become even more dovish, global risk-off events drive safe-haven demand for USD, or the US economy shows unexpected strength. |
Nonconsensus
Frozen Labor Market Persists
|
|
Feb 05
|
|
$97.82
$97.74
-0.1%
|
LONG
|
Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
|
The ECB has already cut 200bps to 2%, but is expected to hold policy steady due to decent growth, tight labor markets (multi-decade lows), and subdued inflation, showing little urgency to ease further. In contrast, the US Fed is expected to aggressively argue for easier policy, making the US an "easy money outlier." The divergence between a cautious, holding ECB and a dovish Fed implies relative strength for the Euro against the US Dollar. The author explicitly states exchange rates are where divergences will be reflected. Long EUR/USD to capitalize on the relative tightening/holding stance of the ECB versus the easing stance of the Fed. The ECB could surprise with further cuts if economic conditions deteriorate rapidly, or the Fed could be less dovish than anticipated, reducing the divergence. |
Nonconsensus
Developed World Monetary Policy Divergence
|
|
Feb 05
|
|
$97.82
$97.74
-0.1%
|
LONG
|
Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
|
The RBA became the first major central bank to hike rates in 2026, forced by a "swift reacceleration" of the Aussie economy and inflation bouncing to near 4%. This explicit tightening contrasts sharply with the Fed's expected easy money policy. The RBA's active tightening cycle, driven by a hot economy, provides a strong fundamental tailwind for the Australian Dollar, especially when juxtaposed with a dovish US Fed. Long AUD/USD to capture the positive carry and capital appreciation from the RBA's tightening cycle relative to the Fed's easing. Australian economic reacceleration could prove temporary, leading the RBA to reverse course, or global risk sentiment could deteriorate, weighing on commodity-linked currencies like AUD. |
Nonconsensus
Developed World Monetary Policy Divergence
|
|
Feb 05
|
|
$97.82
$97.74
-0.1%
|
LONG
|
Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
|
The BoE is expected to hold policy steady due to annoyingly elevated inflation and strong recent survey data, despite weakening labor markets. This cautious stance contrasts with the Fed's anticipated aggressive push for easier policy. The relative hawkishness/holding of the BoE compared to the dovish Fed creates an opportunity for GBP appreciation against the USD. Long GBP/USD to benefit from the BoE's cautious stance and the Fed's expected dovishness. UK inflation could fall faster than expected, prompting the BoE to cut rates more aggressively, or the Fed could pivot to a less dovish stance. |
Nonconsensus
Developed World Monetary Policy Divergence
|
|
Feb 05
|
|
$97.82
$97.74
-0.1%
|
SHORT
|
Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
|
The BoJ "seems forced to hike in response to the FX pressures," implying a move towards tightening. This, combined with the Fed aggressively arguing for easier policy, creates a significant policy divergence. A tightening BoJ (leading to JPY strength) and an easing Fed (leading to USD weakness) creates a strong fundamental case for USD/JPY depreciation. Short USD/JPY to capitalize on the relative tightening of the BoJ and the easing of the Fed. The BoJ's hike could be a "one-and-done" or less impactful than expected, or the Fed's easing could be less aggressive, reducing the divergence. Geopolitical events could also drive safe-haven flows into USD. |
Nonconsensus
Developed World Monetary Policy Divergence
|
|
Feb 02
|
|
$97.61
$97.74
+0.1%
|
SHORT
|
Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
|
The dollar has moved only a tad and is still around last summer's levels, despite the increasing likelihood of easy policy ahead. Politically driven easy monetary policy will likely diminish the dollar's relative attractiveness, leading to its devaluation against other currencies. Short the US dollar to capitalize on its underpricing of future easy monetary policy and the associated reduction in its value. Other major central banks could pursue even easier policies, or global risk-off events could trigger safe-haven demand for the dollar. |
Nonconsensus
Underpricing Easy Street Policy
|
|
Feb 01
|
|
$96.99
$97.74
+0.8%
|
SHORT
|
Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
|
The author explicitly notes "debasement price action" and reports gains from a "short dollar position" in their portfolio, consistent with this theme. Despite stronger US economic growth, the author's portfolio performance suggests that the "debasement" theme (implying currency weakening or inflation) is a dominant force, potentially overriding traditional dollar strength from economic outperformance. SHORT US Dollar (e.g., via UUP or specific currency pairs like EUR/USD LONG, AUD/USD LONG given RBA's likely hike) anticipating continued currency debasement. A significant global risk-off event could trigger a flight to safety into the dollar. US economic outperformance could become so strong that it forces a more hawkish Fed stance, strengthening the dollar. |
Nonconsensus
The Week Ahead 2026.02.01
|
|
Jan 30
|
|
$96.99
$97.74
+0.8%
|
SHORT
|
Anthony Pompliano
Chairman & CEO, Pro Cap Financial
|
Pomp cites the administration's economic plan (referencing Steven Myron) which explicitly requires a weaker US Dollar to offset the impact of tariffs and fix trade deficits. If the government's explicit policy goal is currency devaluation to spur domestic growth and manufacturing, the path of least resistance for the Dollar is down. Short USD (or Long hard assets against it). Global flight to safety driving capital back into the Dollar during a crisis. |
The Block
Pompliano: Forget inflation, bitcoin's price ...
|
|
Jan 30
|
|
$96.99
$97.74
+0.8%
|
LONG
|
Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
|
"Interestingly the dollar traded in line with its more traditional negative correlation to risky asset markets... In both shocks the dollar rallied vs. most developed and emerging currencies." The dollar is acting as a traditional safe haven. If the speculative mania unwinds, leading to risk-off sentiment, the dollar is likely to strengthen further as investors seek safety. LONG US Dollar (e.g., via DXY or against developed/emerging market currencies), as it has demonstrated its traditional safe-haven role during recent risk-off events and is likely |
Nonconsensus
Speculative Mania Speedbumps
|
|
Jan 27
|
|
$96.22
$97.74
+1.6%
|
SHORT
|
lynaldencontact
|
A breakdown in the dollar, and seems pretty intentional.
Many people will sensationalize it but it’s still in its longer range, for now.
Sub-90 gets interesting. https://t.co/bOlio4fl8k |
@lynaldencontact
A breakdown in the dollar, and seems pretty i...
|
|
Jan 27
|
|
$96.22
$97.74
+1.6%
|
SHORT
|
@ces921
|
The tweet implies a political/economic decision to weaken the dollar, potentially to DXY 80. |
@ces921
Was there a Davos Accord on Fx?
Trump said w...
|
|
Jan 27
|
|
$96.22
$97.74
+1.6%
|
SHORT
|
@burggrabenh
|
The market is reacting to a weaker dollar (DXY down), which is driving gold prices higher, a trend expected to continue. |
@burggrabenh
Dollar down - Gold up
Trump just said the US...
|
|
Dec 29
|
|
—
|
SHORT
|
@plur_daddy
|
The speaker sold remaining silver positions around $80, believing a reversal was clearly happening. |
@plur_daddy
Silver, it's been real. Sold the rest around ...
|
|
Dec 26
|
|
—
|
SHORT
|
@plur_daddy
|
The speaker has taken profits on silver positions, indicating that price action is moving into "blow-off territory" and suggesting a potential reversal. |
@plur_daddy
For those who celebrate. If you enjoy heavy, ...
|