Pompliano: Forget inflation, bitcoin's price action is explained by deflation and de-dollarization
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 30, 2026 at 16:45 UTC  |  33:52  |  The Block
Speakers
Anthony Pompliano — Chairman & CEO, Pro Cap Financial
Jeff Park — Chief Investment Officer, Pro Cap Financial

Summary

  • The current administration (as of early 2026) is pursuing a "High Growth / Low Inflation" strategy via tariffs, deregulation, and a deliberately weakened US Dollar.
  • Bitcoin has underperformed Gold recently because retail inflation fears have subsided (Trueflation <1.2%). Gold is rising due to Central Bank de-dollarization, not consumer price inflation.
  • "Independent Investors" are a rising, high-net-worth cohort who reject financial advisors and manage capital directly via fintech platforms; institutions are scrambling to build products for them.
  • AI is viewed as a massive deflationary force that boosts corporate margins (e.g., Amazon layoffs) but risks breaking the social contract ("Occupy AI").
  • Pomp remains a "forever holder" of Bitcoin, viewing it as a multi-generational wealth transfer asset rather than a short-term trade.
Trade Ideas
Ticker Direction Speaker Thesis Time
LONG Jeff Park
Chief Investment Officer, Pro Cap Financial
Jeff Park notes that Amazon laid off 16,000+ workers (30k+ total recently) while simultaneously experiencing massive productivity gains due to AI. This is "Good Deflation" for the corporation. Companies are successfully decoupling revenue growth from headcount. This signals massive margin expansion for tech giants that can effectively replace "bureaucratic administrative management" with AI. Long Big Tech companies executing AI-driven cost reductions. "Occupy AI" social unrest or regulatory backlash against mass displacement of workers. 20:39
SHORT Anthony Pompliano
Chairman & CEO, Pro Cap Financial
Pomp cites the administration's economic plan (referencing Steven Myron) which explicitly requires a weaker US Dollar to offset the impact of tariffs and fix trade deficits. If the government's explicit policy goal is currency devaluation to spur domestic growth and manufacturing, the path of least resistance for the Dollar is down. Short USD (or Long hard assets against it). Global flight to safety driving capital back into the Dollar during a crisis. 3:47
BTC
LONG Anthony Pompliano
Chairman & CEO, Pro Cap Financial
Pomp states he plans to give his Bitcoin to his grandkids and will "never sell." He notes that while Bitcoin lagged recently due to falling inflation expectations, it remains the primary tool for protecting purchasing power over the long term. While the short-term "inflation hedge" narrative has cooled (causing BTC to lag Gold), the structural thesis of wealth preservation and the "Bitcoiner mindset" among the rising wealthy class ensures long-term demand. Long-term accumulation (HODL) regardless of short-term price action or 2026 volatility. Quantum computing (technical risk) and institutional "consensus" diluting the meritocratic culture of Bitcoin. 0:29
LONG Anthony Pompliano
Chairman & CEO, Pro Cap Financial
Pomp observes that Gold is outperforming Bitcoin because Central Banks are the primary buyers. They are not buying to hedge CPI inflation; they are buying to "de-dollarize" and reduce exposure to all fiat currencies. The driver for Gold is geopolitical (Sovereign balance sheet restructuring) rather than macroeconomic (CPI). As long as global powers seek to exit the USD system, there is a price-insensitive bid for Gold that Bitcoin currently lacks. Long Gold as a play on Central Bank accumulation and fiat debasement. A sudden strengthening of the US Dollar or a reversal in Central Bank buying policies. 1:30
LONG Anthony Pompliano
Chairman & CEO, Pro Cap Financial
Pomp states that legacy institutions (like Morgan Stanley) are not exiting fiat but are trying to "pull Bitcoin into the fiat system" to capture the wealth of the new "Independent Investor" class. The banks and fintechs that successfully build the "pipes" (ETFs, tokenization, trading desks) to service this wealthy, self-directed cohort will capture the fees from the Bitcoin wealth effect. Long the infrastructure providers bridging TradFi and Crypto. Regulatory hurdles or failure to attract the "digital native" demographic. 2:09
WATCH Anthony Pompliano
Chairman & CEO, Pro Cap Financial
Pomp lists his favorite investments as "problem solvers," specifically naming Varda (space manufacturing for pharmaceuticals) and Rainmaker (weather modification drones). Smart capital is moving into "Hard Tech" and "Deep Tech" that solves physical problems (health, weather) rather than just software/SaaS. While these specific companies are private, this signals a sector rotation toward industrial innovation. Watch for public proxies in Space Economy and Climate Tech. High capital intensity and long time horizons for commercial viability.