| Ticker | Direction | Speaker | Thesis | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHORT |
Marc Chandler
Chief Market Strategist, Bannockburn Capital Markets |
The speaker observes that while the bond market ignored China's warnings, the FX market did not. The Dollar was hit across the board, even against the Yen which was expected to weaken following Japanese election results. There are two forces at play: a cyclical pullback because the Dollar is overvalued, and a structural shift where investors are "selling the dollar as a hedge" due to lost trust in US leadership and supply chain control. Alphabet recently issued a 100-year bond in a foreign currency, signaling that even major US corporations are diversifying financing away from the Dollar. The move might be purely cyclical rather than the beginning of a total collapse of the Dollar's reserve status. | 1:29 | |
| WATCH |
Deirdre McNeil
Senior Policy Analyst, Longview Global |
Beijing has advised financial institutions to limit purchases of US government bonds. This is "leverage signaling." Just as China uses rare earths or pharmaceutical precursors as leverage in trade negotiations, they are now signaling that financial dependence cuts both ways. They are demonstrating the ability to squeeze US financing ahead of diplomatic meetings. This follows a pattern of China using economic choke points (like critical minerals) to exert political pressure. While current guidance is moderate, this highlights long-term sanctions risk, particularly if a conflict over Taiwan escalates. | — |