| Ticker | Direction | Speaker | Thesis | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHORT |
Mark Cudmore
Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist |
The Japanese Yen rallied post-election due to political certainty (Takaichi trade unwinding). This rally is a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" event. The fundamental backdrop (negative real yields, slow growth) hasn't changed. The market will eventually resume the carry trade against the Yen. SHORT JPY (expecting USD/JPY to rise after this temporary dip). The BOJ aggressively hikes rates faster than expected. | — | |
| AVOID | Chloe (Reporter) | Adyen stock down ~19% after missing revenue estimates in Europe and North America. The payments space is highly competitive. A growth miss of this magnitude suggests structural headwinds or market share loss, breaking the "growth at any price" thesis. AVOID / SHORT. Oversold bounce if management clarifies one-off issues. | — | |
| SHORT |
William Wilkes
Reporter, Bloomberg |
Siemens raised its outlook and is seeing strong demand from data centers/automation. Conversely, Mercedes stock dropped ~4% on margin pressure, citing tariff uncertainty and fierce Chinese competition. This is a pair trade within the German economy. Siemens has successfully pivoted to industrial software (high margin, AI-linked), while automakers are trapped in a capital-intensive, low-margin war with China that they are losing. LONG the Industrial Software winner (Siemens); SHORT the Legacy Auto losers. A surprise removal of tariff threats or a sudden recovery in Chinese luxury auto demand. | 48:02 | |
| LONG |
Richard Oldfield
Chairman, Oldfield Partners |
Nuveen is acquiring Schroders for nearly £10 billion (approx. 30% premium). The deal is agreed. This is an arbitrage/event-driven situation. The premium validates the undervaluation of UK asset managers. LONG (if spread exists) or WATCH for sympathy plays in other UK Asset Managers. Regulatory hurdles blocking the deal (low probability given friendly nature). | 34:46 | |
| LONG |
Guy Johnson
Anchor, Bloomberg |
Lenovo and Cisco are down because "memory prices are up," squeezing their margins. ASML is seeing strong orders for AI glass. If hardware makers (Lenovo) are getting squeezed by component costs, the component makers (SK Hynix/Samsung) have pricing power. UBS notes semi margins remain extremely high (40%+) and the AI hardware trade is not over. LONG the Memory/Semi supply chain. Oversupply in memory chips later in the year. | 0:56 | |
| SHORT |
Mark Cudmore
Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist |
Strong US payroll data failed to push the Dollar significantly higher. The market's non-reaction to good news suggests the "pain trade" is lower. The world is structurally overexposed to the USD and looking to hedge/diversify. Li notes structural employment slowdowns relative to the Euro area. SHORT US DOLLAR (sell into rallies). A resurgence of US inflation forcing the Fed to hike or hold rates much longer than priced. | 0:22 | |
| LONG |
Tom Mackenzie
Anchor, Bloomberg |
Unilever stock up ~8% on a Q4 sales beat and a €1.5bn share buyback. In a volatile macro environment (tariffs/AI churn), capital is rotating into defensive Consumer Staples that demonstrate pricing power and shareholder returns. LONG Unilever. Input cost inflation returning. | 7:08 | |
| SHORT |
Gerry Fowler
Chief Strategist, UBS Investment Bank |
The market has been rotating into "low quality" and Small Caps, behaving as if the economy is in an "Early Cycle" phase due to expected fiscal boosts. Credit and labor markets indicate we are actually "Late Cycle." The rotation into low-quality/small-cap stocks is a head-fake. In a late-cycle environment with high tariffs and inflation risks, pricing power and high margins matter most. LONG High Quality (specifically Software/Microsoft) and SHORT/FADE the Small Cap rally. If fiscal stimulus actually resets the cycle to "Early," Small Caps will continue to rip. | 51:19 |