Daily Alpha · X
· Premarket Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
CoreWeave's funding arithmetic dominated, with a relayed Deutsche Bank gap model and credit-market default-risk pricing outweighing Nvidia's defense, while compute rental prices and memory-2027 estimates were the strongest demand-side counters.
Themes on this desk
CoreWeave credit
Jensen Huang defended CoreWeave's financial health, credit markets are pricing more than 60% five-year default risk, and co-founders have sold $3.3B since the IPO.
Compute scarcity
A Nebius GPU cluster architect says demand is modelled as infinite with 15-20 bidders per expiring contract, and Nebius earns $50M+ per MW on short-term deals.
Memory
Phison's CEO calls the CXMT scare a 'ghost story' and expects shortages of everything next year, while KB Securities sees a 5-7 year Samsung-CXMT DRAM process gap.
Ticker heat
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Top voices by smart followers and alpha score
Market Radar →Snapdragon thermal failures reopen the door for Exynos in the Galaxy S27 Ultra
Korean media reports say Qualcomm's Snapdragon 8 Elite Extreme Gen 6, planned for the Galaxy S27 Ultra, repeatedly exceeded temperature thresholds and slowed under sustained loads; Samsung asked Qualcomm to fix the issue by mid-month and, if unresolved, could adopt its own Exynos in the top model for the first time since the S22 Ultra.
According to Korean media reports, Qualcomm's Snapdragon 8 Elite Extreme Gen 6, which was slated for the Galaxy S27 Ultra,
Flagship design losses are high-margin for Qualcomm, and a switch would be a rare product-level negative for a company whose narrative rests on diversification away from handsets.
Watch Samsung's fix deadline and any S27 Ultra silicon confirmation ahead of launch.
Source →Gerstner stays structurally bullish on AI but says the market ran ahead of revenue
Gerstner says he remains very bullish on AI but that the job in public markets is recognising when the market gets ahead of itself, and that the next leg higher likely comes when AI revenues re-accelerate; he notes the same call was made on CNBC.
@FinanceLancelot @CNBCFastMoney Receipts. Also said it 2x on CNBC.
It frames the drawdown as a timing and expectations problem rather than a thesis break, arguing for patience and balance-sheet quality instead of exiting AI infrastructure.
Watch Quarterly AI revenue reacceleration in hyperscaler and frontier-lab disclosures, his stated trigger for a next leg.
Source →B300 rental prices have risen 17 straight sessions to about $7.45 an hour
Per Compute Desk's verified-transaction index, Blackwell Ultra (B300) rental prices rose for a 17th consecutive day to roughly $7.45 an hour, up about 64% from the $4.55 low last November; the post argues the pricing undercuts the bear case for neoclouds.
$NBIS Blackwell Ultra (B300) rental prices are up 17 days in a row, to about $7.45 an hour, according to
Rental pricing is the closest thing to a real-time clearing price for AI compute, and it is still rising while neocloud equities sell off — a gap that closes either through equity recovery or through funding stress cutting supply.
Watch Whether the B300 index keeps making highs or rolls over as new capacity comes online.
Source →Deutsche Bank models a $35B CoreWeave funding gap and ~$2.6B of extra interest at current yields
Deutsche Bank says CoreWeave will need more capital over the next 12-18 months, with next-twelve-month operating cash flow of about $10B against required capex of $45B, a roughly $35B gap; at the ~15% its unsecured bonds trade, half of that would add about $2.6B of annual interest, more than the $2.1B loss analysts expect.
Deutsche Bank: "CoreWeave no doubt will need additional capital to fund existing backlog over the next 12-18 months," with NTM
It converts the AI-credit debate into arithmetic: the gap can be closed with equity, cheaper debt or slower capex, and each path reprices either CoreWeave shares or the AI-infrastructure supply chain.
Watch CoreWeave's next raise, its bond yields relative to ~10%, and any change to capex guidance.
Source →Jonah Lupton argues sell-side 2027 memory revenue estimates are too low for the big three
Lupton notes consensus expects the top six non-China memory makers to grow revenue 45-50% in CY2027, but he sketches 70-75% growth if HBM ASPs remain up 125% year over year and the rest of the business sees ASPs rise 5% sequentially, leaving SK Hynix at roughly 2x CY2027 EPS excluding current cash, buybacks and its stakes in Solidigm and Kioxia.
The sell side has the top 6 global memory companies (ex China) growing revs at 45-50% in CY2027 however there’s
The estimate path is the catalyst: on Lupton's scenario SK Hynix trades at roughly 2x CY2027 EPS before cash, buybacks and its stakes in Solidigm and Kioxia.
Watch Whether HBM pricing holds up 125% year over year and whether 2027 revenue estimates are revised up.
Source →