Daily Alpha · YouTube
· Premarket Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Who was talking 45 videos · 9 channels
Neocloud funding
1 video · 1h 34mNvidia's CEO publicly backed CoreWeave while Bloomberg framed financing, not demand, as the buildout's stress point and pitched cash-rich hyperscalers as relative beneficiaries.
Nvidia's CEO defends CoreWeave as neocloud funding replaces demand as the AI question
A broad semiconductor selloff eased after Nvidia's CEO publicly backed a key neocloud customer's funding relationship, though the programme framed the buildout's cost and financing, not its long-run theme, as the stress point, with rising rates pressuring neocloud funding and cash-rich hyperscalers seen as relative beneficiaries.
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XLB +0.3% · IWM +1.8% · MID-CAPS — · 000660.KS -4.2% · XLV — · BNDX +0.5%AI expectations reset
1 video · 33mAnthropic's roughly $67B annualized run-rate disappointed very high expectations, distillation leakage is estimated at only 5-7% of revenue, and CoreWeave is down about 50% over the past month.
TBPN says the AI trade is digesting an overshoot as Anthropic's run-rate disappointed very high expectations
The hosts framed a consolidating AI trade: Anthropic showed a very large annualized revenue run-rate, but investors had expected even more, and AI infrastructure names such as CoreWeave sold off sharply. They discussed model distillation as a meaningful but smaller-than-feared revenue leak, and read the weakness as rotation away from tech rather than broad liquidation, with hot inflation data adding pressure.
Chip financing scrutiny
1 video · 3mAsia tech's rebound was muted, October rate-hike odds fell to roughly 15% from 25% after hot inflation data, and analysts said the capex cycle alone no longer drives the AI trade.
Asia tech's muted rebound shows the AI trade has moved past capex as the story
The bounce across Korea, Taiwan and Japan failed to convince investors that AI volatility is over, and analysts argued the market has shifted from semiconductor capital spending to how that spending is financed and whether demand exists outside the circular capex loop. Softer-than-feared Fed commentary after hot CPI and PPI pulled October hike odds to roughly 15% from about 25%, while Indonesia fell around 11% on MSCI reclassification concerns.
Alcoa's CEO puts data-centre aluminum demand at ~30 tons per megawatt and has sold a closed site
Alcoa reported record production at six facilities, close to half a billion dollars of free cash flow and reaffirmed guidance, but revenue missed with raw-material inflation ahead. The CEO said data centres require roughly 30 tons of aluminum per megawatt and that a first closed site was sold for data-centre development, with potential value up to $320M.
Mortgage broker Ron Butler expects the US and Canadian housing downturn to run to 2028
Butler said US 30-year mortgage rates near 7.4% are likely to rise further, homebuilder sentiment and construction completions are weakening with XHB well off its highs, and Canadian court-ordered foreclosures and delinquencies are at multi-year or record highs. He sees no Canadian recovery before 2028, expects a Bank of Canada hike by December, and calls small condos and Ontario rental properties the weakest links.