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· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
SemiAnalysis reported that neocloud executives feel Nvidia uses high-pressure tactics to keep them Nvidia-only, @aleabitoreddit relayed Dell's CEO calling memory a four-year supply problem, and Seeking Alpha flagged CoreWeave's CDS spread past 1,000 bps.
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Market Radar →SemiAnalysis says neoclouds adding AMD GPUs and TPUs were refused GTC Berlin access
SemiAnalysis says it confirmed that multiple neoclouds were refused access to GTC Berlin due to adding AMD GPUs, TPUs and other chips, and that neocloud executives feel Nvidia has used high-pressure tactics to keep them Nvidia-only.
@DOJNatSec @FTC > SemiAnalysis (@SemiAnalysis_) > SHOCKING:
SemiAnalysis says neocloud executives are starting to consider offering TPUs or AMD GPUs quietly; hyperscalers are not affected because they have more buying power.
Watch Whether neoclouds begin offering TPUs or AMD GPUs.
Source →@aleabitoreddit relays Dell's CEO calling memory a four-year supply problem
@aleabitoreddit quotes the Dell CEO saying memory is a 4 year problem because there is not enough supply and that it gets worse next year; factories take about 4 years to build, so new production would emerge in 2029 or 2030.
Just some words of emotional support for your SK Hynix, $SNDK, $MU fanclub. $DELL CEO on memory, suggested:
An earlier @aleabitoreddit post quoted here cites KeyBanc checks that Google is discussing memory LTAs through 2035 and says Samsung has 70% of its capacity allocated through 2031.
Watch Q1 2027 HBM pricing against the 80% to 100% increase cited in the earlier @aleabitoreddit post.
Source →KeyBanc says Nvidia is sampling a Rubin Ultra GPU with 384GB of HBM4E
The 384GB configuration would be a 33% memory-density increase over Rubin's 288GB of HBM4, but most memory suppliers expect Rubin Ultra to despec to 256GB of HBM4E, an 11% decline.
Keybanc: Supply chain partners indicate that Nvidia is sampling a Rubin Ultra GPU with 384GB of HBM4E based on 8x12H.
Watch Whether Rubin Ultra ships at 384GB or 256GB of HBM4E.
Source →Bubbleboi argues Anthropic should stay private and cancel its IPO
@bubbleboi does not think anyone is biting at a 2T or 1.5T market cap, especially after the Meta Muse drop.
Anthropic should just stay private and cancel the IPO.
The post says Anthropic employees who joined in the past 12 months might prefer staying private to an IPO in which the stock drops below their basis.
Watch Anthropic's IPO timing and valuation.
Source →CoreWeave's credit default swap spread surged past 1,000 bps as its debt reached about $50B
Seeking Alpha says the cost of insuring against U.S. tech defaults hit record highs; Oracle's CDS spread widened 26 bps overnight to 288 bps and SoftBank's rose to 424 bps.
The cost of insuring against U.S. tech defaults just hit record highs as investors question AI debt costs.
CoreWeave's revenue growth is over 115% with operating income of -$202M, and Seeking Alpha asks whether AI infrastructure is becoming a credit story.
Watch Oracle and SoftBank CDS spreads.
Source →