VA VALUE JPMorgan Fundamental Data Science Large Value ETF Loading... : Investor Sentiment and Bull/Bear Views

This is a 1970s-style commodity/reflation backdrop. Investors should focus on small caps, value, and commodity-related names. Energy and materials are already the two best-performing sectors and tech is the second worst; commodities are the year's theme. Because fossil fuels are oversupplied, an energy price spike is unlikely to create a demand shock that kills the theme.

Visser says the biggest risk this year is the size of growth funds versus commodity funds, growth versus value, and momentum-based quant strategies. He expects a massive multi-year shift toward value and commodities and away from growth and momentum.

Belski expects a rotation into three equity disciplines in 2026: Value, Dividend Growth, and Small/Mid-Cap, as leadership broadens beyond the prior valuation-driven mega-cap market.

1. THE FACT: The speaker states that because the odds are so stacked in favor of large-cap tech, the potential payout for investing in something "orthogonal" is "insanely" high. 2. THE BRIDGE: This suggests that large-cap tech is a crowded trade and that significant alpha can be generated by looking at overlooked or contrarian assets. The risk/reward is skewed favorably for investments outside the dominant theme. 3. THE VERDICT: The trade is to identify and take long positions in assets, sectors, or themes that are not correlated with or are directly contrary to the prevailing large-cap tech narrative.