RH RHM RHM Global Inc. Loading... : Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions

Rheinmetall agreed to sell its automotive business to Aequita for 350 million euros to become a pure-play defense company.

Bearish view on Rheinmetall because its revenue/orderbook show it is a mediocre industrial firm, its valuation is inflated by the deglobalisation narrative, and the market will eventually reprice it lower.

Rheinmetall beat earnings, shows massive growth; orders may shift from US to Europe. European defense spending cycle accelerating; Rheinmetall a direct beneficiary. Long-term structural growth story backed by recent earnings momentum. Geopolitical uncertainty; US policy reversal could slow order flow.

"Ursula von der Leyen said that the bloc will deliver on its $106 billion loan package to Ukraine... Europe cannot help to secure the point of contact and provide security guarantees to Ukraine." The U.S. stepping back (under Trump) forces the EU to aggressively ramp up its own industrial defense base to provide "security guarantees." This structural shift transfers market share and long-term contract certainty to European defense champions. LONG European Defense contractors. Internal EU fragmentation (Hungary mentioned as a spoiler) blocking funding mechanisms.

Kongsberg sees high demand for air defense (NASAMS) and anti-drone systems. Safran raised 2026/2028 guidance. The "Greenland Moment" and Munich Security Conference rhetoric confirm Europe is building "sovereign capabilities" independent of the US. This is a structural increase in spending on air defense, space, and aftermarket services (Safran/Rolls-Royce). LONG. Defense is decoupling from the general economic cycle due to geopolitical necessity. Supply chain bottlenecks (rare earths, chips) limiting delivery capacity.

Steve highlights Rheinmetall (German tank manufacturer) as a proxy for European defense. He notes the stock rose on the Ukraine war but has further to go due to US isolationism. The US is signaling a return to the "Monroe Doctrine" (focusing on the Americas), meaning Europe can no longer rely on the US for protection. Europe must rebuild its own military industrial base immediately. LONG. Structural demand for European defense assets regardless of short-term peace talks, due to the shift in US foreign policy. Sudden geopolitical de-escalation or peace treaties reducing immediate defense spending urgency.