EQT EQT CORP : Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions

The author shares technical data and market charts for energy sector stocks without expressing a specific directional bias.

Natural gas stocks are performing well, with EQT being a notable long position.

The author expresses a positive outlook on EQT based on its favorable technical chart trend.

EQT Corporation increased its 2026 production hedge position to 25% using costless collars.

The author recommends FCG and EQT as strong plays on natural gas following supply disruptions at Ras Laffan.

The author identifies EQT as the most compelling investment opportunity within the U.S. natural gas sector.

The author suggests potential supply disruptions at the Ras Laffan facility are being downplayed, implying negative implications for natural gas producers.

"The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has a major impact on the liquefied natural gas market... about 20% of the global LNG trade has been taken out of commission. And we are seeing very volatile LNG prices as well in Asia and in Europe, not in the United States." With a fifth of global LNG supply choked off, international prices are spiking. Because US domestic natural gas prices remain stable and insulated, US-based natural gas producers and LNG exporters have a massive arbitrage opportunity. They can source cheap domestic gas and export it at a massive premium to desperate European and Asian buyers trying to replace Middle Eastern supply. LONG US LNG infrastructure and export companies perfectly positioned to fill the global supply void and capture the geographic price spread. Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would allow Middle Eastern LNG back onto the water, collapsing the international price premium and closing the arbitrage window.

We are seeing senior leaders and the largest LNG companies in the world here. There will be a lot of deals announced in the next couple days at this event, meaning in the tens of billions of dollars because there is that understanding of the importance of energy security. Asian allies (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan) are actively shifting their energy reliance away from the volatile Middle East and sanctioned Russia. U.S. natural gas producers and LNG export terminal operators are stepping in to fill this void, securing massive, long-term supply contracts. LONG. Companies involved in the extraction, liquefaction, and export of U.S. natural gas are positioned for multi-decade growth as global energy supply chains permanently realign toward trusted allies. Regulatory hurdles for new export terminals, environmental pushback, or a sudden drop in global natural gas demand.

The reputation of Qatar and the UAE got tarnished right now as a secure supplier while the United States has no problem. Asian countries rely heavily on Middle Eastern LNG and natural gas liquids. Because the Straight of Hormuz blockage has exposed the severe geopolitical vulnerability of relying on the Middle East, Asian buyers will be forced to sign long-term, premium-priced contracts with US LNG producers to secure reliable baseload energy. LONG. US natural gas and LNG exporters will capture permanent global market share due to Middle Eastern instability. A rapid and permanent peace agreement in the Middle East restores confidence in Qatari supply before long-term US contracts are finalized.

"We're growing our net exports of natural gas this spring. This summer, you'll see massively more capacity online by the end of this year." With the Middle East in turmoil and the Strait of Hormuz compromised, global energy buyers will increasingly rely on secure, Western-hemisphere energy sources. The addition of massive new US export capacity aligns perfectly with this forced shift in global demand, driving volume and revenue for US natural gas infrastructure and producers. LONG US natural gas producers and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters as new capacity meets rising geopolitical demand. Warmer-than-expected global weather reducing heating demand, or unforeseen delays in bringing the new export facilities online.

I own Valero, I own Phillips 66. I own Marathon... I have EQT... If you're now in the moment and you're trying to race to catch it, you're not going to... professional oil traders are doing exactly what I'm suggesting... stepping back. While energy stocks were a great defensive rotation previously, the current oil market is driven by unpredictable geopolitical headlines, making new entries too risky and akin to chasing past performance. NEUTRAL because the risk/reward for initiating new positions in energy is poor amid dizzying, headline-driven volatility. Geopolitical conflicts escalate significantly, causing a sustained spike in oil prices that leaves sidelined investors missing out on massive gains.

The speaker notes that "Qatar cannot produce LNG at the moment and don't know when they will resume." Qatar is a top-tier global LNG exporter. If their supply is offline, Europe and Asia must bid up prices for remaining supply. US exporters (like Cheniere - ticker LNG) and natural gas producers (EQT) will see increased demand and pricing power to fill the void. LONG. The removal of Qatari supply creates a structural deficit in the global gas market. Qatar resuming production faster than expected or a mild winter reducing demand.

Qatar LNG (20% of global supply) has halted operations for at least two weeks. European gas prices are up 50%. The market is pricing in a "prolonged disruption." US LNG exports are already diverting from the Atlantic to Asia to fill the void. This creates a direct demand spike for US natural gas exporters (Cheniere) and producers (EQT) to backfill the lost Qatari volume. LONG US Natural Gas and LNG infrastructure. Qatar resumes operations faster than the 2-week base case.

Currie argues that while nuclear is the ideal power source for AI, "that's not going to happen for another two decades." He explicitly states, "What's your best bet for today? It's going to be natural gas." Data centers require immediate, 24/7 baseload power. Renewables are intermittent, and nuclear has long lead times. Natural gas is the only bridge fuel capable of meeting the surging AI electricity demand in the short-to-medium term. Long Natural Gas futures or producers. A mild winter or faster-than-expected efficiency gains in AI compute reducing power needs.

Qatar (20% of global LNG) has halted production. European gas prices are spiking, but US gas prices remain stable because the US is a "net gas producer." This creates a massive arbitrage opportunity. US LNG exporters (like Cheniere) will see record demand from Europe/Asia to replace Qatari supply, while their input cost (US domestic gas) remains low. LONG. US LNG infrastructure is the primary beneficiary of Middle East disruption. Government export bans to keep domestic prices low.

China imports 30% of its LNG through Hormuz. If disruption lasts >1 month, China may be "forced to buy" from the US. China may roll back tariffs on US energy to secure supply. This creates a direct demand surge for US Liquefied Natural Gas exporters (Cheniere) and producers (EQT). Long US LNG. Geopolitics is forcing a structural shift in energy flows from the Middle East to the US. China pivots to Russia for supply instead of the US.

"Reports of a major LNG exporting facility in Qatar being hit... halted production... sent prices soaring... A lot of refiners... are scrambling to find alternatives." Qatar is a top-tier global LNG exporter. With their facility offline, the world (specifically Europe and Asia) must turn to the United States as the "swing producer" of LNG. This drives demand for US Natural Gas (UNG), benefits pure-play exporters like Cheniere (LNG) who will see premium pricing for spot cargoes, and aids large producers (EQT). Long US gas ecosystem. The US becomes the safe haven supplier of energy molecules. If the damage to the Qatar facility is superficial and repairs are faster than expected, the panic premium will collapse.

"Qatar is a huge exporter of LNG... fully dependent on shipping through the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz to get to global markets." Qatar is a top-3 global LNG supplier. With the Strait blocked, their supply is trapped. Europe and Asia must immediately bid up alternative supplies. US exporters (like Cheniere) and producers become the only viable swing producers to fill the gap. Long US Natural Gas and LNG exporters. Demand destruction in Asia or a mild winter in Europe reducing immediate need.

AI compute demand is creating an energy crisis. While Nuclear is the ideal solution, it takes decades to build. Natural Gas is the only scalable, immediate power source to bridge the gap between current AI demand and future Nuclear capacity. Jeff notes that while gas prices crashed from $7 to $3.20, the demand floor from data centers is rising. Long Natural Gas exposure. The current price weakness is a buying opportunity before the "summer of 2026" demand shock from cooling and data centers hits. Warm winter weather or faster-than-expected efficiency gains in AI chips (reducing power consumption) could keep gas prices depressed.

"We are 50% more in energy costs than the state of Pennsylvania... eliminating all of the silly mandates... plus the taxes that are put into your utility bills." Blakeman cites Pennsylvania (a major fracking/natural gas hub) as the economic model to emulate. This implies that the "mandates" (renewables) are the problem and cheap fossil fuels (Natural Gas) are the solution. A political shift toward this view benefits PA-based gas producers who supply the region. LONG Marcellus Shale/PA natural gas producers. Continued regulatory blockades on pipelines into NY; volatile natural gas prices.

AI is an existential "arms race" requiring massive energy. Nuclear takes 10+ years to build. Gas turbines have a 6-year order backlog. The hyperscalers (Tech Giants) cannot wait for nuclear. They will force a "wartime" build-out of Natural Gas power plants as the only viable interim solution. This creates a squeeze on natural gas prices (UNG/EQT) and the manufacturers of gas turbines (GE Vernova - GEV). LONG. Bet on the "bridge fuel" and the infrastructure required to burn it. Government intervention/price controls on energy, or a faster-than-expected breakthrough in SMR (Small Modular Reactor) deployment.

"So many people are counting on nuclear energy [for AI]... I don't think that the people expecting that understand the lead time... natural gas is going to have to stand in." The AI boom requires immediate baseload power. Nuclear takes too long to build. Therefore, Natural Gas demand will spike as the only viable bridge fuel for data centers in the medium term. LONG. A mild winter or continued renewable oversupply could suppress gas prices in the short term.