Livia Gallarati 2.8 6 ideas

Speaker states oil markets have completely shifted the narrative; the conflict has drawn down the massive overhang of supply (especially Russian). The structural floor for oil is now $70-80, up from the previous $50-60 expectation. Even with a ceasefire, upstream production shut-ins are difficult to reverse quickly, and the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will be "gradual but uneven." The ceiling on price is now demand destruction, as there is no supply flexibility left. WATCH because the range is volatile between a new higher floor and a demand-destruction ceiling. The market is in a fragile equilibrium, highly sensitive to news on the Strait and ceasefire durability. A swift and total resolution leading to a rapid normalization of traffic and production, which the speaker views as unlikely.

Livia Gallarati said TTF gas prices could rise all the way to 60 euros if disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz closure continue. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, halting LNG exports from Qatar, and recovery will be slow and uneven, leading to supply tightness in global gas markets. Long direction due to expected upward pressure on prices from sustained supply disruptions and increased demand for alternatives. If the Strait of Hormuz reopens sooner than expected or supply recovers quickly, price increases may be limited.

Qatar LNG (20% of global supply) has halted operations for at least two weeks. European gas prices are up 50%. The market is pricing in a "prolonged disruption." US LNG exports are already diverting from the Atlantic to Asia to fill the void. This creates a direct demand spike for US natural gas exporters (Cheniere) and producers (EQT) to backfill the lost Qatari volume. LONG US Natural Gas and LNG infrastructure. Qatar resumes operations faster than the 2-week base case.