Judge Blocks Subpoenas Against Fed Chair Powell | Balance of Show 03/13/2026
Speakers
Summary
- A federal judge blocked subpoenas against Fed Chair Powell, likely delaying Kevin Warsh's confirmation and keeping Powell at the helm of the FOMC longer than the administration anticipated.
- The U.S.-Iran conflict has seen 15,000 targets hit, but the Strait of Hormuz remains highly vulnerable to cheap Iranian drones and mines, delaying commercial shipping escorts by weeks.
- Bob McNally predicts crude oil will march well into the mid-$100 range, as the loss of 20 million barrels per day through the Strait of Hormuz cannot be offset by strategic reserves.
- U.S. Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum highlights an impending boom in U.S. LNG exports, teasing tens of billions of dollars in new deals with Asian allies currently being negotiated in Tokyo.
Trade Ideas
The fact they can make hundreds of thousands of drones and make them for $20,000, $30,000, $40,000 and attack a multimillion dollar ship makes it a very cheap way to impose high costs. Everyone is working to help the department change those dynamics and equations. The U.S. military is currently on the wrong side of the cost curve, using $3 million interceptor missiles to shoot down $40,000 drones. The DoD will be forced to aggressively fund and procure new, cost-effective counter-UAS (unmanned aerial systems), directed energy weapons, and AI targeting software to adapt to asymmetric warfare. LONG. Defense contractors and defense-tech software companies that can solve the asymmetric drone threat will win lucrative, fast-tracked DoD contracts. Defense budget constraints or political gridlock over supplemental military funding in a divided Congress.
The problem is the Hormuz artery is too big and important. Oil prices, I'm afraid, will continue marching in the triple digit range... well into the mid $100 range and beyond if necessary to slow economic growth. The physical inability to safely transit 20 million barrels of oil per day through the Strait of Hormuz creates a severe, unpluggable supply shock. Strategic petroleum releases are mathematically insufficient to cover this gap, meaning global crude prices and the equities of major oil producers will surge until demand destruction occurs. LONG. Sustained triple-digit oil prices will drive massive free cash flow for major energy producers and directly lift crude tracking funds. A sudden ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, or unprecedented government intervention in the futures market that artificially suppresses prices.
They have learned that when prices spike up that is a signal they will crash down. Busts follow booms. The last thing they want to do is hire an expensive rig and workers, pull them out and find that we have a crash. They will be cautious about ramping up activity. Despite triple-digit oil prices and encouragement from the administration to increase output, domestic shale producers are hesitant to commit to heavy capital expenditures (CapEx) for new drilling. They will likely rely on existing drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells to capture short-term profits rather than structurally expanding operations. WATCH. While high prices boost short-term margins, the reluctance to expand production limits long-term volume growth. Investors should monitor E&P companies with high DUC inventories that can scale output cheaply without massive new CapEx. A rapid resolution to the Middle East conflict causing oil prices to crash, leaving any newly deployed rigs unprofitable.
We are seeing senior leaders and the largest LNG companies in the world here. There will be a lot of deals announced in the next couple days at this event, meaning in the tens of billions of dollars because there is that understanding of the importance of energy security. Asian allies (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan) are actively shifting their energy reliance away from the volatile Middle East and sanctioned Russia. U.S. natural gas producers and LNG export terminal operators are stepping in to fill this void, securing massive, long-term supply contracts. LONG. Companies involved in the extraction, liquefaction, and export of U.S. natural gas are positioned for multi-decade growth as global energy supply chains permanently realign toward trusted allies. Regulatory hurdles for new export terminals, environmental pushback, or a sudden drop in global natural gas demand.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published March 13, 2026, features Mark Esper, Bob McNally, Doug Burgum discussing RTX, LMT, PLTR, CVX, OXY, USO, XLE, FANG, EOG, DVN, LNG, EQT, SRE. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Mark Esper, Bob McNally, Doug Burgum · Tickers: RTX, LMT, PLTR, CVX, OXY, USO, XLE, FANG, EOG, DVN, LNG, EQT, SRE