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Feb 18
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—
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WATCH
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Unknown Speaker
Financial Commentator/Analyst
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"If you take a look at the thirty year mortgage rate right now, it's sitting at about 6.1%... With rate cuts, it does take a little bit longer to trickle into the mortgage rate space." The housing market is currently frozen by the spread between current rates and the "lock-in" rates of 2021. The trade here is not to buy housing yet, but to watch the transmission mechanism of Fed policy. Until the 30-year fixed drops significantly below 6%, housing volume will remain sluggish. WATCH. Wait for confirmation that Fed cuts are actually compressing the spread on mortgage rates before re-entering housing plays. Inflation re-accelerates, forcing rates higher and crushing housing further. |
Bloomberg Markets
Toll Brothers Signs Fewer Contracts Than Expe...
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Feb 17
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—
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SHORT
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Earl Davis
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Davis states, "As we approach 3.90 [on the 10-year], we go more and more underweight." Koesterich says, "I would be cautious about this rally in the 10-year, particularly as we get down to 4%." The market is pricing in aggressive cuts and a flight to safety that contradicts the reality of supply issuance and persistent inflation floors. Davis argues yields below 4% are not sustainable without a crash, making this a selling opportunity. SHORT duration at these levels. A geopolitical shock or rapid recession could force yields lower (flight to quality). |
Bloomberg Markets
Bloomberg Surveillance 2/17/2026
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Feb 17
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—
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SHORT
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Mohamed El-Erian
Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz / Warden Professor
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"From a valuation perspective, and from a fundamental perspective, it's very hard to justify a 4% ten year... I think you will see it going back towards four, four and a half... with the average being closer to 450." El-Erian argues that current yields are too low relative to economic fundamentals. He forecasts a mean reversion where yields rise toward 4.50%. Since bond prices move inversely to yields, a move from ~4.00% to 4.50% implies a decline in Treasury bond prices. Short duration or underweight Treasuries in anticipation of rising yields. The administration may implement some form of yield curve control if mortgage rates spike too high, capping yields artificially. |
CNBC
Expect a lot of volatility as we go forward, ...
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Feb 17
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—
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LONG
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Austan Goolsbee
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
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Goolsbee states, "I still think there are several more rate cuts that can happen in 2026," provided inflation proves transitory. He defines the neutral rate target "loosely... around 3%." Current rates are restrictive relative to a 3% neutral target. If the Fed executes "several" cuts to normalize policy, yields on the curve must fall, pushing bond prices (TLT) higher. LONG. The destination is lower rates, even if the path is bumpy. Inflation remains "stalled out around 3%," forcing the Fed to hold rates higher for longer. |
CNBC
Chicago Fed President Goolsbee: Several more ...
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Feb 17
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—
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LONG
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Marvin Loh
Global Senior Macro Strategist, State Street
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"I would say equal duration makes sense... think through some of the more stable aspects of the technology sector... Gold... is no longer that safety hedge." State Street believes the "Risk On" trade is rotating, not ending. Volatility requires a safety anchor, but Gold and Swiss Franc are too expensive. Therefore, the best risk-adjusted allocation is "Equal Duration" (buying Treasuries to lock in yields as the Fed cuts) and "Stable Tech" (Cash-rich, profitable tech, not speculative AI startups). LONG TLT (Duration) and Quality Tech. AVOID Gold (XAU) as a hedge. Inflation re-accelerating (above 2%) would hurt the long duration bond trade. |
Bloomberg Markets
Stock Futures Slide; US, Iran Hold Talks in G...
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Feb 16
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—
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SHORT
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Nicholas Brooks
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The US economy is running at 2-3% growth with core PCE near 3%. Fiscal deficits are 7-8% of GDP. If the Fed cuts rates 3 times (bowing to pressure) while growth remains at 3%, inflation expectations will unanchor. Bond vigilantes will punish the long end. SHORT Long Duration Bonds (Expect higher yields on the 10Y/30Y). A sudden recession crushes growth and yields simultaneously. |
Bloomberg Markets
'Shared Values' discussed in Munich; RAM Conc...
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Feb 16
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—
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LONG
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Jon Turek
Founder, Turek Capital
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The distribution of outcomes for AI is widening (it's either a productivity miracle or an over-investment bubble). The Front End of the US Yield Curve is the best hedge. If AI causes labor displacement (deflation) or if the bubble bursts (recession), the Fed cuts rates aggressively. LONG Front End Treasuries (2-Year). Inflation re-accelerates to 3-4%, forcing the Fed to hold or hike. |
Bloomberg Markets
'Shared Values' discussed in Munich; RAM Conc...
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Feb 16
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—
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LONG
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Mark Cranfield
Cross Asset Strategist, Bloomberg
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US CPI was benign, and markets are pricing in three rate cuts for 2026 (up from two). Investors are ignoring hot data and focusing on data that supports cuts. If the upcoming PCE data confirms the inflation downtrend, "bonds will have another very good week." LONG Bonds/Treasuries anticipating the PCE print confirms the dovish Fed path. PCE comes in hotter than expected (above 3%), derailing the rate cut narrative. |
Bloomberg Markets
Rubio Warns Europe & Warner Bros. Mulls New P...
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Feb 15
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—
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AVOID
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Paul Krugman
Nobel Prize-winning Economist, Distinguished Professor, Publisher of the Paul Krugman Substack
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Krugman admits "R-star has moved way up" and the 2019 logic that debt doesn't matter (because r < g) no longer holds. "Interest rates are much, much higher... higher than the sort of long run growth rate of the economy." When interest rates exceed the growth rate, debt dynamics become unsustainable. The fiscal deficit is now a "problem" whereas it wasn't before. This structural shift suggests rates will not return to near-zero levels, creating headwinds for long-duration bonds. AVOID long-duration Treasuries as the era of "free money" is over. A severe recession forces the Fed to cut rates aggressively despite the structural issues. |
Monetary Matters
“A Huge Problem for Everybody” | Paul Krugman...
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Feb 14
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—
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LONG
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Joseph Wang
Author, Central Banking 101
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"I'm beginning to think that AI is going to be very good for bonds... you're going to have a lot more rate cuts, lower employ un un higher unemployment." The speaker observes that AI (specifically Cloud/Claude) allows him to replace human freelancers ($$$) with a cheap subscription ($). While efficient, this removes income from the economy (the freelancer's wages). Multiplied across the economy (law firms, creative services), this leads to higher unemployment and lower aggregate demand. A slowing economy with rising unemployment forces the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which drives bond prices up. Long Bonds as a hedge against AI-induced economic slowdown. AI creates new industries/jobs faster than it destroys old ones, keeping demand high. |
Joseph Wang
Markets Weekly February 14, 2026
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Feb 13
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—
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NEUTRAL
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Ed Harrison
Anchor/Editor, Bloomberg Television
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CPI was mixed; tariffs are feeding into prices (computers up 3.1%). Yields dropped slightly on the print. The market is pricing in rate cuts, but structural inflation (Tariffs + Immigration constraints) creates a floor. Yields are stuck in a range (4.0% - 4.2% on the 10Y). NEUTRAL. Upside on bonds is limited because inflation isn't dead; downside is limited because the economy is cooling. Sharp recession (yields crash) or Inflation spike (yields soar). |
Bloomberg Markets
Inflation Data Calms Markets | Bloomberg Open...
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Feb 13
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—
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LONG
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Andrew Ross Sorkin
Co-Anchor, Squawk Box
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CPI came in at 2.4% (vs 2.5% consensus) with shelter inflation (OER) surprisingly low at 0.2%. The 10-year yield fell from 4.10% to 4.07% immediately. The data confirms a "tame CPI," removing the fear of sticky inflation. Lower inflation expectations allow the Fed to keep rates lower or cut, which mechanically pushes bond yields down and bond prices up. LONG Treasuries as the macro data supports the "low yield" narrative championed by Treasury officials. Inflation re-accelerates in future months; data revisions. |
CNBC
Consumer prices rose 2.4% annually in January...
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Feb 13
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—
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LONG
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Jim Paulsen
Former Chief Investment Strategist, Paulsen Perspectives
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Paulsen argues "no jobs is just unacceptable" and notes the average duration of unemployment is nearing half a year. The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate (inflation and employment). With employment stalling, the Fed will be forced to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy, which mechanically drives bond yields down and bond prices up. Long duration assets (Treasuries) to capture price appreciation from falling rates. Sticky inflation (Zandi's point) prevents the Fed from cutting rates. |
CNBC
The economy overall is weaker than widely ant...
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Feb 13
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—
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WATCH
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David Solomon
Chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs
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"I have real concern for the continued level of deficit spending... if we don't get it under control... speed bumps or shocks." Solomon warns that while the bond market is currently benign due to a lack of alternatives to the dollar, spiraling deficits create a long-term risk of market "shocks" (yield spikes). WATCH Treasuries for signs of the "speed bumps" Solomon predicts if growth does not outpace debt. A sudden loss of confidence in US fiscal sustainability could spike yields rapidly. |
CNBC
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon: The macro se...
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Feb 13
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—
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WATCH
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Sen. Thom Tillis
US Senator (R-NC), Member of Senate Banking Committee
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"I have no intention to allow any federal or nominee to move out of committee and be confirmed until the matter is settled... I am not going to confirm the next Fed Chair until I can be absolutely certain that these sorts of flexes do not always have members of the Federal Reserve Board... looking over their shoulder." The market is anticipating a transition in Fed leadership (potentially to Kevin Warsh). Tillis is explicitly freezing this process. While his goal is to protect Fed independence (keeping Powell in place), this introduces governance friction. It delays any policy shift associated with a new Chair and prolongs the current regime, adding political volatility to the yield curve. WATCH. The "Warsh Transition" is effectively paused. This reinforces the status quo (Powell) but increases headline risk regarding Fed governance. If the investigation is resolved quickly, the blockade lifts, and the market may rapidly re-price the probability of a new Chair. |
Bloomberg Markets
Powell Probe Just a 'Flex,' Say Senator Tilli...
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Feb 13
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—
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WATCH
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—
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Fed pricing has been "wobbling," and payrolls were confusing. The speaker warns that if we get high inflation (CPI) on top of this, it will be difficult to convince the FOMC to cut rates. The current valuation of the S&P 500 and US Bonds is predicated on rate cuts occurring this year. A hot CPI print removes the liquidity support, causing a repricing event in both equities and fixed income. WATCH/AVOID US broad indices and Treasuries until the inflation trajectory is clear; a high print is bearish for both. Inflation cools faster than expected, sparking a rally in US assets (reversal of the current fear). |
Bloomberg Markets
S&P 500 Erases Year’s Gains, Asia Prospers: 3...
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Feb 13
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—
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LONG
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Alexandra Ivanova
Fund Manager, IFI Europe Team at Invesco
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"J.P. Morgan strategists recommending 2-year Treasuries as a tactical trade... I actually agree." She also notes that "technicals that have been so strong [in credit] are starting to turn." With economic data softening and the "AI Scare" driving risk-off sentiment, the front end of the curve (2-Year) offers protection. Ivanova suggests the market is pricing in perfection for rate cuts, but the 2-year is the safer spot compared to the volatile long end or crowded corporate credit. LONG. A hot CPI print forces the Fed to hold rates higher for longer, damaging the short-end trade. |
Bloomberg Markets
AI Fear Drives Rout & Goldman Lawyer Quits Ov...
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Feb 12
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—
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LONG
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Bailey Lipschultz
Reporter, Bloomberg
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"Investors... finding some comfort when it comes to the U.S. bond market... Treasuries act as a hedge here." With equities (S&P 500/Nasdaq), Crypto, and Gold all selling off simultaneously, Treasuries are re-emerging as the sole "flight to safety" asset class. As volatility increases in risk assets, capital will rotate into government bonds. LONG (Hedge/Safety Trade). Re-acceleration of inflation data. |
Bloomberg Markets
Software Selloff Deepens on AI Fears | Closin...
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Feb 12
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—
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LONG
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Jonny Fine
Head of Investment Grade Credit at Goldman Sachs
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Fine explicitly predicts "four cuts over the course of this year" starting in June and sees the 10-year yield hitting 3.5%. If yields fall to 3.5% from current levels, bond prices (which move inversely to yields) will appreciate significantly. This is a more dovish stance than even his own colleagues (Jan Hatzius). LONG (Buy duration/bonds to capture price appreciation). Inflation remains sticky, preventing the Fed from cutting rates as aggressively as predicted. |
CNBC
Goldman Sachs’ Jonny Fine: We will see four r...
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Feb 12
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—
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SHORT
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Steve Ricchiuto
Mizuho Securities
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Ricchiuto argues the economy is accelerating, inflation is "stuck," and the Fed will not cut rates for 12 months. The market is pricing in cuts that won't happen. As data confirms sticky inflation and strong growth, yields must rise (prices fall) to reflect a "higher for longer" reality. SHORT Treasuries (expecting higher yields). A sudden economic crack or banking crisis forces the Fed to cut. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bloomberg Surveillance 2/12/2026
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Feb 12
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—
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NEUTRAL
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Roger Ferguson
Former Vice Chair, Federal Reserve
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Ferguson states, "The economic data does not support an aggressive move down by the Fed. Maybe one more and then done." He notes inflation is "sticky" and the 10-year yield hasn't moved much because inflation expectations are stable. The market is pricing in a series of cuts (potentially expecting a new Chair like Warsh to cut for productivity reasons). Ferguson argues this is historically "misguided." If the Fed pauses after one cut, the aggressive bond rally trade (betting on plummeting yields) is off the table. Yields will likely flatten or remain elevated due to sticky inflation and strong growth. NEUTRAL. Do not bet on a crash in yields/aggressive easing. A sudden deterioration in the labor market could force the Fed to cut faster than Ferguson expects. |
CNBC
The economic data doesn't support an aggressi...
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Feb 12
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—
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LONG
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Priya Misra
Portfolio Manager, J.P. Morgan Asset Management
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"We continue to characterize the job market as a low hire, low fire one... fragile... We're finding high quality credit... and then we like to hedge... owning some duration." The economy is not overheating, it is stalling at a high level. In this environment, you want yield (Credit) but you need protection against a sudden labor market crack (Treasuries/Duration). Long Barbell Strategy (Credit + Duration). Inflation re-accelerates, forcing yields higher and hurting both bonds and credit spreads. |
Bloomberg Markets
Stocks Climb; Nuveen to Buy Schroders; Anthro...
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Feb 12
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—
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SHORT
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Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
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"The latest jobs report and revisions suggest that may be starting to pick up, with private payrolls posting the best numbers in more than year." "In an environment of such low labor supply... it won’t take much to put a positive squeeze on labor." "gently pushes the odds in favor of incomes rising toward spending ahead." A strengthening labor market, potential for wage growth, and rising incomes imply a more robust economy and potential inflationary pressures. This would likely lead to a more hawkish Federal Reserve or delayed rate cuts, pushing interest rates higher and negatively impacting fixed income assets. SHORT US Treasuries (e.g., via a TBT ETF or directly shorting bond futures) on expectations of a stronger economy and potential inflationary pressures leading to higher interest rates. Labor market strength proves temporary; wage growth remains subdued; the Fed adopts a more dovish stance than expected; an unforeseen economic downturn. |
Nonconsensus
Will a Pickup in Jobs Keep Spending Going?
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Feb 12
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—
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SHORT
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MLIV Guest
Market Strategist
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"I would have thought yields would go much further... it should be overall a bigger shift, higher in the yield curve." The market underreacted to strong payroll data. The speaker believes the "flattening move" is insufficient and the entire curve needs to shift higher to reflect economic reality. Short US TREASURIES (expecting higher yields). Weak economic data prints causing a sudden flight to bonds. |
Bloomberg Markets
US Yields Likely Have Higher to Climb: 3-Minu...
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Feb 12
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—
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SHORT
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Brent
Investment Analyst / Guest
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"I think duration gets punished in the coming year." The speaker argues that cutting rates without Quantitative Tightening (QT) is too dovish given low unemployment. The US economy is showing strength (strong jobs, wage growth 3.7%), and potential future stimulus (tax rebates/tariffs). This inflationary setup forces the Fed to keep the long end of the curve higher. If the Fed cuts rates, they must balance it with QT, which increases bond supply/yields. Short duration/bonds as yields are likely to rise or stay sticky. A sudden economic contraction or recession forcing a flight to safety. |
Bloomberg Markets
Trump Tells Netanyahu He Prefers Iran Deal | ...
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Feb 12
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—
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SHORT
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Mark Cranfield
Cross Asset Strategist, Bloomberg
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A surprisingly strong US jobs report caused yields to surge as traders moved Fed cut expectations from June to July. The bond market is trapped in volatility. The data is contradictory (weak private jobs vs. strong payrolls), but the "higher for longer" narrative is gaining traction again. Traders are being forced to become "day traders," making holding duration dangerous. Short/Underweight duration until data trends clarify. A sudden weak CPI print could reverse yields rapidly. |
Bloomberg Markets
Trump Rebuked Over Canada Tariffs as Midterm ...
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Feb 11
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—
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LONG
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Ed Yardeni
President, Yardeni Research
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Yardeni observes that despite the stock market rising, bond yields are holding steady (around 4.2%) and Gold is moving higher toward $3,000+. Investors are taking profits from the tech/AI run-up and "rebalancing" into defensive assets (Gold and Bonds) to find "AI Immunity." LONG. The "Galloping Horse" economy (stimulus + rate cuts) combined with a desire for non-AI correlated assets favors hard assets and sovereign debt. A resurgence in inflation could hurt nominal bond returns; Gold is technically overbought in the short term. |
Bloomberg Markets
Stocks Steady After Strong Jobs Data Dims Rat...
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Feb 11
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—
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SHORT
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Jim Bianco
President, Bianco Research
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Payrolls surprised upside (130k), and inflation remains sticky around 3%. The market is perpetually pricing in cuts that don't happen. If data stays strong, the neutral rate is likely higher (4%), meaning yields must rise (prices fall). SHORT US Treasuries (Expect higher yields). A sudden economic cliff dive necessitating emergency cuts. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bloomberg Surveillance 02/11/2026
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Feb 11
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—
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LONG
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Claudia Sahm
Economist, Federal Reserve Board
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Sahm states, "We still see wage growth slowing, unemployment rate drifting up... labor demand for workers is not keeping up with the supply of workers." A labor market where supply exceeds demand is disinflationary. Slowing wage growth removes the primary sticky inflation threat. This gives the Fed the green light to cut rates to prevent the "gradual problem" from becoming a recession. Bond yields should fall (prices rise) as the market prices in these cuts and the cooling growth outlook. LONG (Buy Bonds / Bet on Lower Rates). If immigration or supply shocks re-ignite inflation, forcing the Fed to hold rates higher for longer. |
Bloomberg Markets
What the US Jobs report means for the Fed
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Feb 11
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—
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SHORT
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Rick Santelli
On-Air Editor, CNBC
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"Zoom zoom zoom is what yields are doing... a two year really screaming from 345 all the way up to 353. Why? Because these are solid, solid data points." The jobs report showed a drop in unemployment (4.3%) and hotter-than-expected wage growth (0.4% MoM). This "solid" economic data forces the market to price out aggressive Fed rate cuts, causing yields to spike and bond prices to fall. Short Treasuries (or Long Yields) as the economy shows resilience, countering the "naysayer" recession narrative. Benchmark revisions showed -862k jobs over the past year, indicating the long-term trend might be weaker than the headline monthly number suggests. |
CNBC
U.S. payrolls rose by 130,000 in January, mor...
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Feb 10
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—
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WATCH
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Deirdre McNeil
Senior Policy Analyst, Longview Global
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Beijing has advised financial institutions to limit purchases of US government bonds. This is "leverage signaling." Just as China uses rare earths or pharmaceutical precursors as leverage in trade negotiations, they are now signaling that financial dependence cuts both ways. They are demonstrating the ability to squeeze US financing ahead of diplomatic meetings. This follows a pattern of China using economic choke points (like critical minerals) to exert political pressure. While current guidance is moderate, this highlights long-term sanctions risk, particularly if a conflict over Taiwan escalates. |
CNBC
China signals leverage as markets downplay Tr...
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Feb 09
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—
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LONG
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Ruchir Sharma
Chairman, Rockefeller International
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Central banks globally are actively diversifying away from US Treasuries and the US Dollar. While private investors are buying stocks, sovereign entities (Central Banks) are moving reserves into hard assets like Gold to reduce reliance on the US financial system. Sharma confirms central banks are "principally buying gold" while cutting Treasury exposure. A reversal in geopolitical tensions or higher real yields on Treasuries could make bonds attractive again. |
CNBC
Rockefeller International’s Ruchir Sharma exp...
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Feb 09
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—
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LONG
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Mohamed El-Erian
Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz / Warden Professor
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El-Erian agrees with the view that the Federal Reserve has room to lower interest rates. AI-driven productivity enhancements will increase the economy's "safe speed limit" (non-inflationary growth potential). This allows the economy to grow without overheating, giving the Fed permission to cut rates without sparking inflation. Historical precedents of productivity booms allowing for easier monetary policy. If AI adoption ("diffusion") is slower than expected, productivity gains won't materialize, keeping inflation and rates higher. |
CNBC
Volatility, dispersion and fragmentation are ...
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Feb 01
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—
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SHORT
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Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
|
The author reports "losses short financial assets (mania) and long 2yrs (stronger than expected growth)" in their portfolio. Additionally, the RBA is expected to hike rates, signaling the |
Nonconsensus
The Week Ahead 2026.02.01
|