| Ticker | Direction | Speaker | Thesis | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LONG |
Mark Cranfield
Cross Asset Strategist, Bloomberg |
Japan's GDP came in much weaker than expected following a contraction in the previous quarter. Weak economic data forces Prime Minister Takaichi to embark on "fiscal expansion" (spending). This reinforces the "Takaichi Trade": printing money/spending stimulates stocks (Nikkei) but devalues the currency (Yen) and hurts bonds. Continue the short JPY / long Equity trade as fiscal stimulus becomes necessary. The Bank of Japan might still hike interest rates despite weak growth, which would strengthen the Yen. | — | |
| LONG |
Emmanuel McGrory
Deals Editor, Bloomberg |
Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) is considering reopening sales talks with Paramount (PARA) after Paramount submitted amended terms. The transcript explicitly mentions this could "reignite a second bidding war with Netflix." If WBD re-engages, it puts a floor under PARA's stock price and signals consolidation in the media sector. LONG PARA as the acquisition target; WATCH WBD/NFLX for volatility around deal terms. Regulatory hurdles or deal talks collapsing again (as they have previously). | 0:27 | |
| WATCH |
Mark Cranfield
Cross Asset Strategist, Bloomberg |
Hyperscalers are issuing record amounts of debt to fund the "biggest year of spending" for AI. Hedge funds are buying Credit Default Swaps (CDS) to hedge this exposure. If AI revenue figures ("the income generated from all these huge investments") do not materialize, credit spreads will widen, creating a "downward spiral" that feeds back into equities. WATCH credit spreads on Big Tech. If CDS costs rise, it is a leading indicator for an equity correction. AI revenue could surprise to the upside, rendering the hedges useless. | 10:02 | |
| LONG |
Joumanna Bercetche
Anchor, Bloomberg |
There has been a "record ramp up in industrial metals." Major miners like BHP are reporting earnings this week against a backdrop of surging metal prices. LONG miners heading into earnings due to favorable commodity pricing. Disappointing guidance on production costs or demand from China (which is closed for Lunar New Year). | 1:49 | |
| AVOID |
Mark Cranfield
Cross Asset Strategist, Bloomberg |
These companies were added to a Pentagon list of firms working with the Chinese military, then the list was withdrawn/redrawn, creating confusion. While being on the list doesn't immediately sanction them, it "makes it difficult for US businesses to do business with their Chinese counterparts" and lays the groundwork for future, more serious sanctions. AVOID due to heightened geopolitical risk and regulatory uncertainty ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting in April. The list could be permanently scrapped, removing the overhang. | — | |
| LONG |
Mark Cranfield
Cross Asset Strategist, Bloomberg |
US CPI was benign, and markets are pricing in three rate cuts for 2026 (up from two). Investors are ignoring hot data and focusing on data that supports cuts. If the upcoming PCE data confirms the inflation downtrend, "bonds will have another very good week." LONG Bonds/Treasuries anticipating the PCE print confirms the dovish Fed path. PCE comes in hotter than expected (above 3%), derailing the rate cut narrative. | — | |
| NEUTRAL |
Joumanna Bercetche
Anchor, Bloomberg |
Gold has slipped below $5,000/oz, down about 1% on the day. Traders are using the benign inflation print to "trim some of the profits." The inflation hedge trade is unwinding slightly as inflation cools. NEUTRAL/WATCH. The asset is seeing profit-taking after a massive run-up (to $5k). Geopolitical escalation (Russia/Ukraine) could drive safe-haven flows back in. | 1:10 |