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Feb 12, 2026
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LONG
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"Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung have sold everything they can produce through 2026." The speaker notes the "pricing power is incredible." The memory chip market has consolidated into an oligopoly. With supply completely locked up for the next two years due to AI demand, these companies have removed the typical cyclical risk of oversupply, guaranteeing high margins. Long the memory manufacturers as they have unparalleled earnings visibility. Unexpected demand destruction in the AI sector or regulatory intervention. |
Bloomberg Markets
Trump Tells Netanyahu He Prefers Iran Deal | ...
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Feb 12, 2026
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SHORT
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"I think duration gets punished in the coming year." The speaker argues that cutting rates without Quantitative Tightening (QT) is too dovish given low unemployment. The US economy is showing strength (strong jobs, wage growth 3.7%), and potential future stimulus (tax rebates/tariffs). This inflationary setup forces the Fed to keep the long end of the curve higher. If the Fed cuts rates, they must balance it with QT, which increases bond supply/yields. Short duration/bonds as yields are likely to rise or stay sticky. A sudden economic contraction or recession forcing a flight to safety. |
Bloomberg Markets
Trump Tells Netanyahu He Prefers Iran Deal | ...
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Feb 12, 2026
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SHORT
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The speaker states, "We own Alphabet... We're short Oracle." He notes that Oracle has "relied on debt-fueled Capex" while Alphabet has "income and client base" to fund spend. In a macroeconomic environment where rates remain elevated (yield curve concerns mentioned), companies leveraging balance sheets to buy growth (Oracle) face higher cost of capital and solvency risks compared to cash-rich incumbents (Alphabet) that can self-fund infrastructure. Execute a pair trade: Long Quality/Cash Flow (GOOGL) vs. Short Debt-Heavy Growth (ORCL). Oracle successfully disrupting the cloud market faster than anticipated, justifying the leverage. |
Bloomberg Markets
Trump Tells Netanyahu He Prefers Iran Deal | ...
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