Trump Tells Netanyahu He Prefers Iran Deal | Horizons Middle East & Africa 2/12/2026
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  February 12, 2026 at 08:02 UTC  |  46:02  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Joumanna Bercetche — Anchor, Bloomberg
Brent — Investment Analyst / Guest
Mimmin Low — Reporter, Hong Kong
Thomas Pramotedham — CEO, Presight
Hisham Alrayes — Group CEO, GFH Financial Group
Jennifer Zabasajja — Chief Africa Correspondent

Summary

  • US Labor Market Resilience: The US jobs report surprised significantly to the upside (135k vs 60k expected), causing markets to price out aggressive Fed cuts for 2026.
  • Memory Chip Supercycle: A supply-demand imbalance is locked in through 2026 for major memory chip makers, creating an oligopoly with immense pricing power.
  • The "Debt-Capex" Divergence: A clear bifurcation is emerging in Tech between companies funding AI Capex via free cash flow (Alphabet) versus those relying on debt (Oracle), with the latter being vulnerable in a higher-rate environment.
  • Geopolitical Shifts: The US is actively engaging with Venezuela to boost oil output (potential supply glut risk) and pressing ahead with Iran talks despite Israeli objections.
  • Middle East IPO Pipeline: GFH Financial plans to list its healthcare platform in Saudi Arabia, citing attractive valuations in the Kingdom's healthcare sector.
Trade Ideas
Ticker Direction Speaker Thesis Time
LONG Brent
Investment Analyst
"Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung have sold everything they can produce through 2026." The speaker notes the "pricing power is incredible." The memory chip market has consolidated into an oligopoly. With supply completely locked up for the next two years due to AI demand, these companies have removed the typical cyclical risk of oversupply, guaranteeing high margins. Long the memory manufacturers as they have unparalleled earnings visibility. Unexpected demand destruction in the AI sector or regulatory intervention. 3:46
SHORT Brent
Investment Analyst
"I think duration gets punished in the coming year." The speaker argues that cutting rates without Quantitative Tightening (QT) is too dovish given low unemployment. The US economy is showing strength (strong jobs, wage growth 3.7%), and potential future stimulus (tax rebates/tariffs). This inflationary setup forces the Fed to keep the long end of the curve higher. If the Fed cuts rates, they must balance it with QT, which increases bond supply/yields. Short duration/bonds as yields are likely to rise or stay sticky. A sudden economic contraction or recession forcing a flight to safety.
AVOID Min Min Low
China Correspondent, Bloomberg
A Chinese company (implied DeepSeek context) launched a model with double the parameters at a lower cost, which "led to a software selloff in the U.S." The rapid advancement and commoditization of AI models by Chinese competitors are eroding the pricing power and "moats" of traditional US software companies. Cheaper, open-source, or foreign alternatives are undercutting the "per-seat" SaaS pricing model. Avoid US Software stocks exposed to AI deflationary pressure. US trade barriers or tariffs blocking Chinese software adoption.
LONG Thomas Pramotedham
CEO, Presight
Reported 39% revenue growth and 12 consecutive quarters of growth. Expanding international footprint with major partners like HSBC and FAB. The company is successfully transitioning from a local UAE entity to a regional AI analytics player. The integration with major banks (HSBC) for "growth intelligence" suggests sticky, high-value enterprise contracts are scaling. Long on execution and regional AI adoption tailwinds. Competition from global hyperscalers entering the Middle East market. 12:33
SHORT Brent
Investment Analyst
The speaker states, "We own Alphabet... We're short Oracle." He notes that Oracle has "relied on debt-fueled Capex" while Alphabet has "income and client base" to fund spend. In a macroeconomic environment where rates remain elevated (yield curve concerns mentioned), companies leveraging balance sheets to buy growth (Oracle) face higher cost of capital and solvency risks compared to cash-rich incumbents (Alphabet) that can self-fund infrastructure. Execute a pair trade: Long Quality/Cash Flow (GOOGL) vs. Short Debt-Heavy Growth (ORCL). Oracle successfully disrupting the cloud market faster than anticipated, justifying the leverage. 10:25
GFH
WATCH Hisham Alrayes
Group CEO, GFH Financial Group
GFH Financial Group plans to "list our healthcare platform in Saudi Arabia" and notes healthcare valuations there are "very, very attractive." The planned IPO serves as a hard catalyst to unlock shareholder value for GFH. By spinning off a high-value asset in a liquidity-rich market (Saudi), the parent company should see a re-rating. Watch GFH for the specific IPO announcement as a liquidity event. IPO delays or cooling of the Saudi IPO market. 35:10