| Ticker | Direction | Speaker | Thesis | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVOID |
Neil Campling
Tech/TMT Analyst |
Memory spot pricing is skyrocketing (up 60%). For hardware manufacturers (Dell, HP, Apple), memory is a major input cost (COGS). They face a "double whammy": rising component costs and a consumer potentially weakened by inflation. They cannot easily pass these costs on without killing demand. AVOID Hardware Integrators due to margin compression. Companies successfully pass costs to consumers or AI-PC demand outweighs price increases. | 66:58 | |
| LONG |
Neil Campling
Tech/TMT Analyst |
AI chips (specifically Nvidia's Rubin) use 8-10x more memory than H100s. Hyperscaler capex is $600B, but memory supply is constrained. Spot prices are estimated to be up 60% QoQ. You cannot build a fabrication plant in 3 months. The supply-demand imbalance is structural and worsening. This grants immense pricing power to the memory oligopoly (Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung). South Korea (EWY) is the geographic proxy for this trade. LONG Memory Producers and Korean Equities. Global recession crushing demand for consumer electronics (phones/PCs) which these companies also rely on. | 64:44 | |
| LONG |
Jon Turek
Founder, Turek Capital |
The distribution of outcomes for AI is widening (it's either a productivity miracle or an over-investment bubble). The Front End of the US Yield Curve is the best hedge. If AI causes labor displacement (deflation) or if the bubble bursts (recession), the Fed cuts rates aggressively. LONG Front End Treasuries (2-Year). Inflation re-accelerates to 3-4%, forcing the Fed to hold or hike. | — | |
| SHORT | Nicholas Brooks | The US economy is running at 2-3% growth with core PCE near 3%. Fiscal deficits are 7-8% of GDP. If the Fed cuts rates 3 times (bowing to pressure) while growth remains at 3%, inflation expectations will unanchor. Bond vigilantes will punish the long end. SHORT Long Duration Bonds (Expect higher yields on the 10Y/30Y). A sudden recession crushes growth and yields simultaneously. | — | |
| LONG | Grace Peters | Tech valuations are stretched, but earnings growth is broadening (13% growth). "Old Economy" sectors are the beneficiaries of the AI build-out (Industrials building data centers, power generation) and are seeing earnings inflections (Health Care). They offer operational leverage to AI without the valuation premium of the Mag-7. LONG Cyclicals and Defensives (Diversification away from pure Tech). Economic slowdown hits cyclicals hardest. | 13:21 | |
| SHORT | Grace Peters | The sector is expensive relative to its growth profile. In a cyclical upswing (Goldilocks scenario), investors want growth or beta. Staples offer neither—they are "bond proxies" that are currently overpriced and failing to grow earnings at a competitive rate. SHORT / UNDERWEIGHT Consumer Staples. A recession triggers a flight to safety, boosting staples. | — | |
| LONG | Grace Peters | Central Banks continue to be heavy buyers of Gold. Despite the recent pullback (volatility), the structural bid from Central Banks diversifying reserves remains. It acts as a hedge against the "AI Bubble" risk and geopolitical instability. LONG Gold (buy the dip). High real rates persist, making non-yielding assets less attractive. | 0:13 | |
| WATCH |
Louise Moon
Reporter, Wall Street Journal |
Warner Bros Discovery is reportedly reopening talks with Paramount/Skydance. The new offer involves Paramount covering a breakup fee owed to Netflix. M&A activity in media indicates consolidation is necessary for survival. The deal structure (covering fees) suggests seriousness. WATCH for deal confirmation; arbitrage opportunities may arise. Regulatory hurdles or deal collapse. | 8:06 | |
| LONG |
Louise Moon
Reporter, Wall Street Journal |
VW plans to cut costs by 20% by the end of 2028. The market has punished VW for EV demand slowdowns and Chinese competition. A 20% cost reduction directly improves the bottom line and signals management is finally addressing bloat. LONG on restructuring thesis. Unions block cuts or Chinese market share continues to erode. | — | |
| LONG | Nicholas Brooks | Germany and Europe are massively increasing infrastructure and defense spending (NATO targets). Regardless of the US election outcome, Europe is forced to re-arm. This spending is "sticky" and government-mandated, providing a floor for European defense contractors. LONG European Defense. Geopolitical de-escalation (unlikely in near term). | 85:51 |