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Feb 18
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—
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LONG
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Volodymyr Zelenskiy
President of Ukraine
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"He cannot let go of the very idea of war... in reality he is a slave to war." Zelenskiy argues that the aggressor is psychologically incapable of de-escalation. If the war is driven by an existential obsession rather than rational geopolitical goals, the conflict will be prolonged. A "forever war" scenario necessitates sustained and increasing defense spending by NATO and Western allies to support Ukraine and replenish depleted stockpiles. LONG. The thesis supports a secular bull market for defense contractors and aerospace firms. A sudden, unexpected diplomatic breakthrough or regime change in Russia could lead to a rapid de-rating of the defense sector. |
Bloomberg Markets
Zelenskiy Says He Cannot Imagine Putin Withou...
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Feb 18
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—
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LONG
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News Reporter
Anchor/Journalist
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"Neither side really seems to be backing off. Moscow has stuck to maximalist demands... Ukraine simply wouldn't go for any deal where they ceded land." The diplomatic deadlock and "maximalist" stances confirm that a near-term ceasefire is highly unlikely. A prolonged war of attrition guarantees continued government spending on munitions and defense systems to support Ukraine and replenish NATO stockpiles. Long Defense contractors and Aerospace ETFs (ITA) as the conflict duration extends. Sudden unexpected diplomatic breakthrough or reduction in Western aid packages. |
Bloomberg Markets
Zelenskiy Says Ukraine, Russia to Discuss Zap...
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Feb 18
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—
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LONG
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Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
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The speaker points out that "out of 100 things made in the military, there's like 80 that the process is traced back to China" and cites Raytheon (RTX) admitting the US cannot decouple from China. The "Bits to Atoms" thesis implies that the last 30 years of software prosperity masked a hollowing out of US industrial capacity. To compete with China, the US must aggressively re-industrialize and secure military supply chains, leading to massive capex in domestic defense and manufacturing. LONG US Defense and Industrials as the beneficiaries of the forced "re-onshoring" and "Bits to Atoms" transition. Supply chain shocks if China cuts off exports before the US can rebuild capacity. |
Thread Guy
It's Time To Start Chinamaxxing..
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Feb 18
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—
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LONG
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Bronwen Maddox
Editor, Prospect Magazine
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Europe is realizing it cannot rely on the US for Ukraine support ("Trump's Lighthouse Diplomacy"). Europe is focusing on "what it can do on its own" to arm Ukraine and coordinate defense. This geopolitical shift forces European nations to increase domestic defense budgets and procurement, independent of US NATO contributions. This creates a sustained bid for defense contractors, particularly those with European exposure. Long Defense. The narrative has shifted from "US funding Ukraine" to "Europe funding itself," implying long-term contracts for hardware. A sudden peace deal or ceasefire that reduces the urgency of defense spending. |
Bloomberg Markets
China Doesn't Want Russia to Lose Ukraine War...
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Feb 17
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—
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LONG
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Dan
Morgan Stanley Analyst
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The speaker highlights "defense spending and a revamping of the military industrial complex" in Europe and mentions a potential "Marshall Plan type of equivalent" for post-Ukraine recovery. Geopolitical instability is forcing a structural shift in European fiscal policy toward re-militarization. This creates a guaranteed revenue stream for defense contractors and infrastructure firms, decoupled from the volatility of consumer tech or AI software. LONG Defense (specifically with European exposure) as a fiscal policy play. De-escalation of geopolitical conflicts leading to budget cuts. |
Bloomberg Markets
Tech Stocks Dip as AI Doubts Linger on Wall S...
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Feb 17
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—
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LONG
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Joe Kernen
Co-Anchor, Squawk Box
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Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is "close to cutting business ties with [Anthropic]... the dispute is centered on how the military might deploy Anthropic's AI model... not wanting its technology to be used for mass surveillance or to develop weapons." The Pentagon has an urgent demand for AI. If Anthropic (the pacifist option) is out, the contract volume logically flows to AI firms explicitly built for defense applications (e.g., Palantir). LONG Defense-focused AI providers. Government budget delays or internal development of AI tools. |
CNBC
Squawk Pod: The Legacy of Reverend Jesse Jack...
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Feb 17
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—
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LONG
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Mark
Analyst, Bloomberg
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The Trump administration has "confirmed it has sent over that additional carrier strike group to the Arabian Sea" and analysts see a "high likelihood that the U.S. could take military action against Iran." While "diplomacy is the top agenda," the physical movement of high-value military assets and the explicit prediction of kinetic action by Bloomberg Economics signals increased utilization of defense hardware and logistics. LONG. The deployment itself validates revenue generation for defense contractors regardless of the diplomatic outcome. A sudden, comprehensive peace deal that de-escalates the region immediately. |
Bloomberg Markets
Iran, US Reach 'Principles' of New Nuclear De...
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Feb 17
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—
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WATCH
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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
US Representative
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The Representative pivots away from military commitment, focusing instead on "economic research" and avoiding conflict. The Defense sector (ITA) often trades on the "inevitability of conflict" narrative. If the political zeitgeist shifts toward active avoidance and economic maneuvering rather than military preparation, the sentiment premium in defense stocks may cool, even if underlying budgets remain stable. WATCH. Monitor if this dovish rhetoric gains broader traction in Congress. Geopolitical events force a hawkish pivot regardless of rhetoric; actual defense spending remains at record highs despite words. |
Bloomberg Markets
AOC Says US Must Avoid 'Any Such Confrontatio...
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Feb 17
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—
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LONG
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Joumanna Bercetche
Anchor, Bloomberg
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President Macron is in India; India decided to "buy another 114 French-made fighter jets and several hundred missiles." This is a multi-billion dollar order confirming the "sovereignty" trend where nations hedge against US unreliability by buying European defense hardware. This directly benefits French/European defense contractors. LONG European Defense. Deal execution delays or political changes in France/India. |
Bloomberg Markets
Futures Slip Ahead of US Return; Iran-US Talk...
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Feb 16
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—
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LONG
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Marco Rubio
Secretary of State
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Rubio states the U.S. expects Europe to "step up ramping up conventional defense." Ellwood notes Europe is trying to project it is "doing more for its own conventional defense." The geopolitical pressure from the U.S. forces European nations to increase defense budgets significantly. This spending flows directly to defense contractors (both U.S. exporters and European domestic firms). LONG Defense sector as government spending is mandated by alliance survival. Diplomatic resolution in Ukraine reducing urgency for re-armament. |
Bloomberg Markets
Memory Chip Shortage is Global Crisis in the ...
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Feb 16
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—
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LONG
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Nicholas Brooks
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Germany and Europe are massively increasing infrastructure and defense spending (NATO targets). Regardless of the US election outcome, Europe is forced to re-arm. This spending is "sticky" and government-mandated, providing a floor for European defense contractors. LONG European Defense. Geopolitical de-escalation (unlikely in near term). |
Bloomberg Markets
'Shared Values' discussed in Munich; RAM Conc...
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Feb 16
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—
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LONG
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Oliver Crook
Chief European Correspondent, Bloomberg
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Allies have pledged $35 billion in new military aid to Ukraine, specifically targeting "Air Defenses" and Patriot systems. RTX (Raytheon) manufactures the Patriot system. A $35B injection focused on air defense directly translates to order book growth for the prime contractors manufacturing these interceptors and batteries. LONG Defense primes, specifically those exposed to air defense systems. Geopolitical de-escalation or funding delays. |
Bloomberg Markets
AI 'Scare Trade' Takes Hold; Talabat FY Earni...
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Feb 15
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LONG
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Marco Rubio
Secretary of State
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"We have to have sufficient firepower in the region to ensure that they don't make a mistake and come after us." The diplomatic strategy relies explicitly on military deterrence. The requirement for "sufficient firepower" to prevent Iran from "lashing out" guarantees continued high operational tempo, hardware deployment, and maintenance contracts for defense firms operating in the Middle East, regardless of the diplomatic outcome. LONG Defense stocks as the necessary enforcement mechanism for the diplomatic strategy. A sudden, comprehensive peace treaty leads to a rapid withdrawal of US forces (low probability). |
Bloomberg Markets
Rubio Says Trump's Preference Is to Reach Dea...
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Feb 14
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—
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LONG
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Narrator
Video Narrator
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The narrator states that quantum supremacy "could mean accelerated progress in areas like drug research, artificial intelligence, defense and finance." These sectors are the direct beneficiaries of quantum utility. The ability to process data in parallel (qubits) rather than sequentially (bits) unlocks capabilities in molecular modeling (Biotech), encryption (Defense), and complex market simulation (Finance) that are currently impossible. Long the downstream sectors that will leverage quantum speed to revolutionize their R&D and operational efficiency. The technology remains experimental; failure to achieve stability means these sectors cannot yet deploy these tools. |
Bloomberg Markets
Can Quantum Computing Power the AI Boom?
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Feb 14
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—
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LONG
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Beacon Global Strategies Managing Director
Guest Analyst (Former Special Assistant to George W. Bush)
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The analyst states regarding a strike on Iran: "I think we will do it again... President has already said that he is painted into a corner... I think he will hit... ballistic missile sites." A kinetic strike on Iran, specifically targeting missile sites, guarantees a geopolitical risk premium. This benefits defense contractors (replacing munitions) and drives oil prices higher due to Strait of Hormuz fears. LONG. War positioning is required given the "locked and loaded" rhetoric. Diplomatic de-escalation or the administration bluffing to force a deal. |
Bloomberg Markets
Clock Ticks Down to Partial Shutdown Deadline...
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Feb 14
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—
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LONG
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Michael
Guest / Geopolitical Analyst
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The speaker notes, "I don't think we'll ever be back to the place that we were where we completely subsidize European security... you've got to get to 5% [defense spending]." He also mentions Europeans are "stepping up with the defense industrial base." The US withdrawal of security subsidies forces European nations to drastically increase domestic military spending (from 2% to 5% targets). This capital flow directly benefits the European defense industrial base and general European equities exposed to rearmament. LONG European Defense and Industrials due to structural spending mandates. A change in US administration policy or European economic recession curbing budget capabilities. |
Bloomberg Markets
Is Trump Gearing Up to Strike Iran Again?
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Feb 13
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—
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LONG
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John Studzinski
Vice Chair, PIMCO
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Studzinski notes that "The biggest pools of capital... are derisking from America" and moving into Europe for "resilience." He highlights that the European defense budget is moving toward "$1 Trillion." "Derisking" implies a rotation of capital out of US concentration and into European assets, specifically those linked to security and infrastructure. A doubling of the addressable market for European defense firms creates a massive secular tailwind. Long European Defense and Industrials benefiting from the $1T spending target. European bureaucratic inefficiency; slow implementation of banking unions. |
Bloomberg Markets
Poland’s Sikorski Says Europe Deserves Role i...
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Feb 13
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LONG
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Radoslaw Sikorski
Minister of Foreign Affairs, Poland
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Poland's Foreign Minister states, "We're buying U.S. weapons for Ukraine... We've pledged 230 billion [Euros]... We need to modernize by the end of the decade." While Europe is building its own capacity, the immediate demand ("buying U.S. weapons") flows directly to US Prime Contractors. The shift from 2% to 4.8% GDP spending by Poland signals a structural baseline increase in revenue for these vendors. Long US Defense ETFs (ITA) to capture the flow of European capital purchasing American hardware. Supply chain bottlenecks; potential ceasefire reducing urgency. |
Bloomberg Markets
Poland’s Sikorski Says Europe Deserves Role i...
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Feb 13
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—
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LONG
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Eirik Lie
CEO of Kongsberg Defense (Incoming CEO of Kongsberg Group)
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"Europe needs to continue the build up of the capacity... wanting to buy European... This is a very active discussion within Europe." The speaker highlights a structural shift away from solely relying on US imports toward building domestic European capacity. However, the sheer scale of the "gap in capacities" implies a rising tide for the entire sector, including US primes that supply components or joint ventures (like the F-35 missiles mentioned). LONG. The sector is under-equipped for the current threat environment, guaranteeing multi-year government spending floors. Supply chain disruptions preventing delivery of the backlog. |
Bloomberg Markets
Kongsberg Says Demand for Air Defense Systems...
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Feb 13
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—
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LONG
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Andrea Palasciano
Reporter
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"We are talking about billions. There is no understating how expensive a nuclear program is... just the upkeep of the French and the UK nuclear programs are extremely expensive." The geopolitical shift towards an independent European deterrent necessitates a massive increase in sovereign defense spending. Since the US is viewed as unreliable, this capital will flow specifically to European defense contractors (particularly in France and the UK) rather than US firms, driving a "Buy European" supercycle in the defense industrial base. Long European Defense beneficiaries via sector exposure. High costs could lead to budget stalemates or political fragmentation within the EU; non-proliferation treaties could block development. |
Bloomberg Markets
Europe Weighs How to Develop Its Own Nuclear ...
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Feb 13
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—
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LONG
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Swati Gupta
South Asia Government Reporter, Bloomberg
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India has approved $40 billion in defense spending, including French fighter jets and US maritime surveillance aircraft. This is a direct revenue injection for Western defense contractors (specifically French aerospace and US surveillance manufacturers) as India diversifies away from Russian equipment. LONG Defense contractors with exposure to India. Bureaucratic delays in Indian procurement processes. |
Bloomberg Markets
How AI Is Proving to Be a Double-Edged Sword ...
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Feb 13
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—
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LONG
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Swati Gupta
South Asia Government Reporter, Bloomberg
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India is committing $40 billion to defense, explicitly buying "six US maritime surveillance aircraft" and "114 fighter jets from France." This spending marks a structural shift where India is "building some distance" from Russia (its traditional supplier) and redirecting capital to US and European defense contractors. This creates a direct revenue tailwind for Western defense firms (likely Boeing for US surveillance and Dassault for French jets) and the broader sector. Long US and European Defense sectors as they capture market share from Russian competitors in one of the world's largest arms markets. Geopolitical reversals or bureaucratic delays in finalizing procurement contracts. |
Bloomberg Markets
India Greenlights 40 Billion Upgrade to Its A...
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Feb 12
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—
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LONG
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Ashu Khullar
CEO, Citi India (Implied based on context of Citi India leadership and "Paul" as interviewer)
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The US-India trade agreement includes an intention for India to buy $500 billion worth of US goods. The speaker explicitly names "Defense" (rockets/new tech), "Civil Nuclear" (opening up), and "Energy" as key areas where India lacks domestic technology and must import. India's geopolitical pivot away from Russian arms and energy dependence necessitates massive procurement from Western allies. This creates a structural, multi-year order book for US Defense primes, Nuclear technology providers, and Energy exporters. Long US exporters in these specific sectors (Defense, Nuclear, Energy) as direct beneficiaries of the $500bn trade target. Bureaucratic delays in finalizing trade deal details; political shifts in the US or India. |
Bloomberg Markets
Citi Expects India Investment Boost From Trad...
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Feb 11
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—
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LONG
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Tyler Kendall
Multimedia Editor
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President Trump floated the idea of sending a "second armada" (aircraft carrier group) to the Middle East. Netanyahu is presenting intelligence on Iran's ballistic missile program, and Lissner notes that while a strike isn't imminent *today*, significant military activity is expected once that second carrier group arrives. "Second Armada" = Logistics, hardware, and munitions expenditure. The explicit mention of Iran's ballistic missile program suggests future kinetic action or enhanced defense spending on interceptors (Iron Dome/Arrow equivalents). This flow of military assets directly benefits defense prime contractors. LONG. Geopolitical risk premiums are being repriced higher with the movement of heavy naval assets. Diplomatic breakthrough (low probability given the rhetoric) or de-escalation. |
Bloomberg Markets
Strong Jobs Report Curbs Fed-Cut Bets | Balan...
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Feb 11
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—
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LONG
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Kevin McCarthy
Former Speaker of the House / Board Member, Ignium
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NATO and the US are increasing defense spending. McCarthy notes we are on a "wartime footing" regarding industrial supply chains. The government is actively seeking to expand the industrial base beyond just the prime contractors (Lockheed/Boeing) to smaller suppliers and new platforms (like Ignium). This signals a secular tailwind for the entire defense supply chain. LONG. Geopolitical tension ensures sustained government funding. Budget gridlock in Washington (though McCarthy downplays this). |
Bloomberg Markets
AI Winners vs Losers on Wall Street | Open In...
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Feb 11
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—
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LONG
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—
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The reporter notes that El Paso is home to "Fort Bliss, which is one of the Army's biggest bases" and the closure is for "special security reasons." A sudden, 10-day total airspace closure over a major military installation implies a significant military exercise, mobilization, or testing of sensitive next-gen technology (e.g., hypersonics or directed energy) that requires absolute secrecy and safety buffers. This points to active defense utilization. Long defense contractors and aerospace ETFs as beneficiaries of increased military activity and testing. The closure could be related to a non-military emergency or a specific threat that causes broader market panic rather than sector growth. |
Bloomberg Markets
All Airspace Around El Paso Airport Is Closed...
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Feb 01
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—
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LONG
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Evgeny Gaevoy
CEO and Founder, Wintermute
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When asked about his personal portfolio moves regarding the massive gold rally, Gaevoy stated: "I did start selling [gold] today... I bought some defense stocks... which are also going up." The speaker is actively rotating capital from an asset he views as overextended (Gold) into a sector with strong momentum and geopolitical tailwinds (Defense). This implies a belief that the geopolitical instability driving gold will continue to benefit defense contractors, even if gold takes a breather. LONG Defense ETFs or Majors (e.g., iShares Aerospace & Defense). Geopolitical de-escalation or government spending cuts. |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
Looking for Gains Right Now? Crypto Isn’t the...
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