| Ticker | Direction | Speaker | Thesis | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LONG |
Evgeny Gaevoy
CEO and Founder, Wintermute |
"Liquidity concentrated in the mega cap tokens primarily Bitcoin and ETH... or maybe Solana." He adds, "I'm still cautiously optimistic that it will start recapturing the mind share closer to the midyear." The "Casino" era of crypto (meme coins) has collapsed due to dilution. Capital is engaging in a "flight to quality" within the ecosystem. While currently rangebound (boring), these assets are the only ones with sufficient liquidity to absorb institutional flows when interest returns in mid-2026. LONG (Accumulate during rangebound chop). Market structure bill fails to pass; mindshare remains stuck in AI/Commodities longer than expected. | 5:15 | |
| AVOID |
Evgeny Gaevoy
CEO and Founder, Wintermute |
"The capital became like very diluted... competing for millions of those meme coins... resulted in market crash... liquidity was too thin." The supply of new tokens (via platforms like pump.fun) outpaced the inflow of retail capital. The "illusion" of early entry has been broken, and the retail base is fractured and underwater. Without a new catalyst, these illiquid assets have no bid support. AVOID. A sudden, mania-driven retail return to speculative assets. | 6:29 | |
| WATCH |
Evgeny Gaevoy
CEO and Founder, Wintermute |
"Prediction markets... going to be a even bigger theme for this year... especially because of midterms." As the US Midterm elections approach (Nov 2026), volume and attention will surge in prediction markets. However, Gaevoy warns that for market makers (and by extension, traders providing liquidity), the risk of "insider trading" or information asymmetry is high. WATCH (Participate directionally if you have a view, but do NOT provide passive liquidity/AMM). Regulatory crackdowns or manipulated outcomes causing losses for liquidity providers. | 14:04 | |
| LONG |
Evgeny Gaevoy
CEO and Founder, Wintermute |
When asked about his personal portfolio moves regarding the massive gold rally, Gaevoy stated: "I did start selling [gold] today... I bought some defense stocks... which are also going up." The speaker is actively rotating capital from an asset he views as overextended (Gold) into a sector with strong momentum and geopolitical tailwinds (Defense). This implies a belief that the geopolitical instability driving gold will continue to benefit defense contractors, even if gold takes a breather. LONG Defense ETFs or Majors (e.g., iShares Aerospace & Defense). Geopolitical de-escalation or government spending cuts. | 29:18 | |
| NEUTRAL |
Evgeny Gaevoy
CEO and Founder, Wintermute |
"It does feel like a bit overheated... I did start selling today for example." While acknowledging the "massive rally" driven by sovereign buying and retail, the speaker identifies the vertical price action as unsustainable in the immediate term. He is monetizing gains rather than chasing the "fear of missing out." TAKE PROFITS / NEUTRAL. Do not chase at these levels. Sovereign buying accelerates (central banks), pushing prices higher despite technical overextension. | 0:05 |