| Ticker | Direction | Speaker | Thesis | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LONG |
David Faber
Anchor, Squawk on the Street / Media Analyst |
WBD is "trading at less than four times free cash flow" and the valuation is "ridiculously cheap." The board has given Paramount 7 days to present a superior offer to the current Netflix deal. WBD is the prize in a bidding war. Whether Netflix wins or Paramount overpays to match, the floor is set, and the valuation gap (<4x FCF vs. peers) provides a margin of safety. The "tickling fee" offered by Paramount suggests they are serious about regulatory hurdles. LONG WBD as an arbitrage and deep value play. Deal collapse or regulatory blocking (antitrust). | 0:11 | |
| AVOID |
David Faber
Anchor, Squawk on the Street / Media Analyst |
"It looked like Netflix was in a pretty good position... [but] stock is down 25%." Faber also notes, "I do wonder how disciplined Netflix will be if they're given the right to match." Netflix is facing a double negative: 1) Potential dilution or overpayment to win the WBD asset, and 2) Structural fears regarding AI video competition (ByteDance app mentioned) eroding their moat. The momentum is negative. AVOID until the M&A dust settles. Netflix secures WBD at a bargain price, revitalizing growth narrative. | 0:18 | |
| LONG |
Joe Kernen
Co-Anchor, Squawk Box |
"The US military is preparing for an operation against Iran that could last weeks." Explicit confirmation of upcoming military operations in the Middle East is a direct catalyst for Defense stocks (replenishment/usage) and Energy (risk premium on oil supply disruption). LONG Defense and Energy sectors. Diplomatic resolution or limited scope of conflict. | — | |
| LONG |
Joe Kernen
Co-Anchor, Squawk Box |
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is "close to cutting business ties with [Anthropic]... the dispute is centered on how the military might deploy Anthropic's AI model... not wanting its technology to be used for mass surveillance or to develop weapons." The Pentagon has an urgent demand for AI. If Anthropic (the pacifist option) is out, the contract volume logically flows to AI firms explicitly built for defense applications (e.g., Palantir). LONG Defense-focused AI providers. Government budget delays or internal development of AI tools. | — | |
| WATCH |
David Faber
Anchor, Squawk on the Street / Media Analyst |
Paramount has "seven days to present an offer better than Netflix's." They have added a "tickling fee" to sweeten the deal for WBD shareholders. Paramount is desperate to scale. While they might win the asset, the concern is the solvency of their legacy cable networks (MTV/Nickelodeon) by the time the deal closes. It is a high-risk binary event. WATCH. If they win, the synergy narrative begins; if they lose, they remain a sub-scale player. Overpaying for WBD renders the combined entity insolvent due to debt load. | 0:13 | |
| WATCH |
Joe Kernen
Co-Anchor, Squawk Box |
"Hyatt hotel's chairman Thomas Pritsker announcing he's going to retire following the release of documents related to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein." Sudden C-suite departures linked to scandals often create short-term volatility and governance uncertainty. While the business operations may remain sound, the headline risk is elevated. WATCH for dip-buying opportunities once headlines fade. Further reputational damage impacting brand value. | — |