| Ticker | Direction | Speaker | Thesis | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LONG | Diane Garrett | Silver is facing a "structural deficit" not seen in five years, while China is restricting exports. Concurrently, industrial demand is surging due to AI data centers, solar panels, and solid-state batteries (which require ~2kg of silver per vehicle). Silver is often traded purely as a precious metal (currency hedge), but the industrial use case is creating a physical floor. If the US imports 64% of its silver and classifies it as a critical mineral while supply tightens, prices must rise to incentivize new production (which is difficult as silver is usually a byproduct). Long Silver exposure via ETFs or miners. Garrett mentions a momentum analyst forecasting $300 silver (extreme bull case), but the fundamental floor is rising. Global recession reducing industrial demand; new mining supply coming online faster than expected. | — | |
| LONG |
Derek Halpenny
Head of Research, MUFG Bank |
MUFG expects the Fed to deliver three rate cuts and views the labor market as "mixed at best." Halpenny argues Trump will not raise tariffs further because he needs to deliver on cost-of-living promises. The market has priced in a "Trump Trade" (stronger USD due to tariffs/inflation). If Trump refrains from tariffs and the Fed cuts rates to support a softening labor market, the interest rate differential supporting the USD collapses. Short USD (Long JPY). Halpenny explicitly predicts a "notable drop" in USD/JPY later in the year and a 5% drop in the Dollar Index by 2026. Inflation re-accelerates, forcing the Fed to hold or hike; Trump aggressively implements universal tariffs. | — | |
| LONG |
Arthur Mensch
Co-founder & CEO, Mistral AI |
Mistral AI CEO Arthur Mensch notes that while they have secured supplies, they are seeing "sharp data" indicating shortages in hard drives and memory chips are starting to impact the market. The market is obsessed with GPUs (NVDA), but AI models require massive data storage. If hard drives are the next bottleneck, pricing power shifts to the few remaining storage manufacturers (Western Digital, Seagate). Long Storage/Memory providers. The shortage in "hard drives" directly benefits legacy storage players pivoting to high-capacity AI data storage. Rapid decline in NAND/HDD pricing if supply chains normalize quickly; technological shift rendering current storage obsolete. | — | |
| LONG |
Bronwen Maddox
Editor, Prospect Magazine |
Europe is realizing it cannot rely on the US for Ukraine support ("Trump's Lighthouse Diplomacy"). Europe is focusing on "what it can do on its own" to arm Ukraine and coordinate defense. This geopolitical shift forces European nations to increase domestic defense budgets and procurement, independent of US NATO contributions. This creates a sustained bid for defense contractors, particularly those with European exposure. Long Defense. The narrative has shifted from "US funding Ukraine" to "Europe funding itself," implying long-term contracts for hardware. A sudden peace deal or ceasefire that reduces the urgency of defense spending. | — | |
| LONG |
Matt Bloxham
Head of Research, The Block |
Meta is deepening its relationship with Nvidia, and Meta was Nvidia's second-largest customer last year. Despite fears of hyperscalers (like Meta) building their own chips to replace Nvidia, the deepening partnership signals that Nvidia's GPUs remain indispensable for the immediate future of AI model training. Long NVDA (continued demand) and META (securing necessary compute). Regulatory crackdowns on Big Tech capex; diminishing returns on AI spend. | 47:39 |