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10:08
Apr 13
12:12
Apr 07
USO
Geo Chen Substack author, Fidenza Macro HIGH short-term
Riding a strong trend in a volatile environment allows for capturing meaningful PnL in a short period, as opposed to extracting small gains in range-bound conditions.
"For example, my current long in WTI oil is about 12 dollars in the money after less than a week of holding it (with the usual caveat that I may still give some of it back)."
USO LONG
07:25
Mar 30
TY ES
Geo Chen Substack author, Fidenza Macro HIGH short-term
Market sentiment has become overly bearish due to geopolitical fears, presenting a contrarian opportunity to flip from short to long.
"For these reasons, I’ve covered my shorts in ES and TY futures, and have flipped to long futures as of this morning."
TY LONG
Geo Chen Substack author, Fidenza Macro HIGH short-term
Positioning and sentiment indicators have retraced to neutral or bearish, making it a contrarian buying opportunity as the most hopeless-looking scenarios often are.
"For these reasons, I’ve covered my shorts in ES and TY futures, and have flipped to long futures as of this morning."
ES LONG
03:30
Mar 24
ES TY
Geo Chen Substack author, Fidenza Macro HIGH medium-term
The author is long-term bearish on equities and believes the recent relief rally driven by Trump backing down from threats to strike Iran is a selling opportunity.
"This gave me the opportunity to reload my shorts at much better levels in ES and TY less than 12 hours later."
ES SHORT
Geo Chen Substack author, Fidenza Macro HIGH medium-term
The author is long-term bearish on Treasuries and used the temporary market bounce to re-enter short positions at more favorable levels.
"This gave me the opportunity to reload my shorts at much better levels in ES and TY less than 12 hours later."
TY SHORT
04:45
Mar 23
ES USO
Geo Chen Substack author, Fidenza Macro HIGH short-term
The author is short equities due to ongoing and escalating military conflicts between the US and Iran in the Middle East.
"The SPY ETF surged in after-hours trading on this news, and I would have been stopped out of my short ES and long oil had the post come out 30 minutes earlier when the market was open."
ES SHORT
Geo Chen Substack author, Fidenza Macro HIGH short-term
The author is long oil as a play on escalating geopolitical tensions and military actions involving the US and Iran in the Middle East.
"The SPY ETF surged in after-hours trading on this news, and I would have been stopped out of my short ES and long oil had the post come out 30 minutes earlier when the market was open."
USO LONG
02:40
Mar 09
USO ES UNG CORN EWY
Geo Chen Substack author, Fidenza Macro HIGH short-term
The war in Iran is a big deal and will disrupt the supply of energy much worse than people expect.
"I went long Brent on Thursday with the view that the market would come around to this view as we approached the weekend, and that trade is now over $30 in the money."
USO LONG
Geo Chen Substack author, Fidenza Macro HIGH short-term
The geopolitical escalation and scorched earth campaign by Iran is inflicting maximum damage on the global economy, trapping the US politically and economically.
"In addition to my long oil, I established a new short position in ES..."
ES SHORT
Geo Chen Substack author, Fidenza Macro HIGH short-term
A large portion of the global nat gas supply goes through the Strait of Hormuz, so a shortage would disrupt supply significantly.
"...and went long natural gas (after fumbling my long last week) and corn."
UNG LONG
Geo Chen Substack author, Fidenza Macro HIGH short-term
Corn relies heavily on fertilizer, and fertilizer supply will be significantly disrupted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
"...and went long natural gas (after fumbling my long last week) and corn."
CORN LONG
Geo Chen Substack author, Fidenza Macro HIGH long-term
Raising cash in the long-term portfolio amidst global volatility and geopolitical risks.
"In my long term portfolio I’ve been raising cash - I got out of EWY (South Korea) and EEM (Global EM)..."
EWY AVOID EEM AVOID
Geo Chen Substack author, Fidenza Macro HIGH long-term
Maintaining a long position in the long-term portfolio despite raising cash elsewhere.
"...but am still sitting on some EWZ (Brazil)."
EWZ LONG
Geo Chen Substack author, Fidenza Macro HIGH medium-term
BTC has been trading well and is showing good relative strength during the volatility.
"I’m comfortable holding a long BTC as long as I have my other trades as a hedge."
BTC LONG
02:39
Mar 06