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08:38
Jun 03
Jun 03
NVDA
MU
▾
Article cites GPU prices as a preferred leading indicator; NVIDIA is the dominant GPU supplier whose pricing power directly reflects compute supply/demand dynamics.
Risk: If GPU prices weaken, it would signal easing demand or oversupply, negative for NVDA's revenue trajectory.
NVDA WATCH
DRAM memory prices are flagged as a key leading indicator; Micron is a major DRAM and HBM supplier exposed to the same demand wave discussed for SK Hynix.
Risk: Same as SK Hynix: capacity additions could compress margins over time.
MU WATCH
04:21
May 15
May 15
GOOGL
▾
Author states: 'Google stands out as the one company that has the AI expertise and compute to stay at the frontier and the capital to leverage Superintelligence to create enormous value.' This positions Google as a primary beneficiary of the superintelligence thesis.
Risk: Regulatory scrutiny, potential misalignment or security incidents, and competition from other frontier labs (OpenAI, Anthropic) could limit upside. Concentration of power also attracts political risk.
GOOGL WATCH
11:05
May 05
May 05
LIT 1ST
▾
HIGH
The war in Iran is accelerating the shift to EVs and clean energy, benefiting lithium and battery technology, and the author believes LIT will outperform as a result.
"This is why I believe my portfolio holding LIT, the Global Lithium and Battery Tech ETF, will outperform."
LIT LONG
medium-term
HIGH
12:12
Apr 07
Apr 07
WTI
▾
MED
The author entered long WTI oil based on a reactive setup after some outcome was determined, and is using a trailing stop to protect profits.
"my current long in WTI oil is about 12 dollars in the money after less than a week of holding it"
WTI LONG
short-term
MED
04:45
Mar 23
Mar 23
ES=F
USO
▾
HIGH
The author discloses an active short position in S&P 500 E-mini futures (ES), which was nearly stopped out by positive geopolitical news, indicating a bearish stance on the broader market.
"I would have been stopped out of my short ES and long oil had the post come out 30 minutes earlier when the market was open."
ES=F SHORT
short-term
The author discloses an active long oil position, consistent with the article's broader theme of inflationary pressures from commodities. The position was nearly stopped out by news of potential de-escalation in the Middle East.
"I would have been stopped out of my short ES and long oil had the post come out 30 minutes earlier when the market was open."
USO LONG
short-term
HIGH
02:40
Mar 09
Mar 09
EWZ 1ST
ES=F
BNO 1ST
BTC 1ST
UNG 1ST
▾
HIGH
Author continues to hold Brazil exposure in his long-term portfolio while raising cash from other EM positions.
"I got out of EWY (South Korea) and EEM (Global EM) but am still sitting on some EWZ (Brazil)."
EWZ LONG
long-term
ES is on the brink of breaking 5-month support at 6600 as war escalation pressures risk assets.
"I established a new short position in ES"
ES=F SHORT
short-term
Author believes the Iran war will disrupt energy supply much worse than expected, and the market is beginning to price it in.
"I went long Brent on Thursday with the view that the market would come around to this view as we approached the weekend, and that trade is now over $30 in the money."
BNO LONG
short-term
BTC is showing good relative strength and serves as a hedge alongside commodity and equity positions.
"I’m comfortable holding a long BTC as I have my other trades as a hedge."
BTC LONG
medium-term
A large portion of global natural gas supply goes through the Strait of Hormuz, so a shortage will disrupt supply significantly.
"I went long natural gas (after fumbling my long last week) and corn."
UNG LONG
short-term
Corn relies most on fertilizer among the big three ags, and fertilizer supply is disrupted by the Strait of Hormuz closure.
"I went long natural gas (after fumbling my long last week) and corn."
CORN LONG
short-term
Author closed the long EWY position as part of raising cash in his long-term portfolio.
"I got out of EWY (South Korea) and EEM (Global EM) but am still sitting on some EWZ (Brazil)."
EWY LONG
immediate
Author closed the long EEM position as part of raising cash in his long-term portfolio.
"I got out of EWY (South Korea) and EEM (Global EM) but am still sitting on some EWZ (Brazil)."
EEM LONG
immediate
HIGH
15:15
Jan 12
Jan 12
000660.KS
005930.KS
EEM
MU
EWZ 1ST
▾
HIGH
SK Hynix is named as a major beneficiary of the HBM bottleneck in AI hardware, with a 15x earnings valuation that is more reasonable than US peers. The article also notes Korea's corporate governance reforms as a policy tailwind.
Risk: Concentration in EWY at 46% of the index; any slowdown in AI capex could weigh on demand.
000660.KS WATCH
Samsung is named as a major beneficiary of the HBM bottleneck in AI hardware, trading at ~28x earnings. The article highlights that despite strong outperformance, valuations remain more reasonable than US AI hardware peers.
Risk: Memory cyclicality and geopolitical tensions could disrupt supply chains.
005930.KS WATCH
The author explicitly names EEM as a beneficiary of the EM outperformance theme, alongside EWZ and EWY, citing lower valuations, depressed positioning, and dollar weakness.
Risk: EM outperformance depends on continued dollar weakness and Fed loosening; geopolitical shocks could reverse flows.
EEM WATCH
The article discusses 'high-bandwidth memory bottleneck' in AI hardware, which directly implicates Micron as a major HBM3E supplier alongside SK Hynix and Samsung. The bullish HBM supply-demand dynamics should benefit Micron's revenue and margins.
Risk: HBM competition and potential oversupply as capacity ramps; customer concentration.
MU WATCH
EM outperformance thesis driven by lower valuations, depressed positioning versus US megacaps, dollar weakness, and Fed loosening. Brazil benefits from central bank rate cuts from 15% and global macro tailwind despite political uncertainty.
"I have some long-term positions in EWZ (MSCI Brazil ETF) and EWY (MSCI South Korea ETF)."
EWZ LONG
long-term
Korea ETF heavily concentrated in Samsung and SK Hynix (46% of index), both beneficiaries of HBM bottleneck in AI hardware. Valuations reasonable (Samsung ~28x, SK Hynix ~15x) with policy tailwinds from corporate governance reforms and low-teens forward P/E leaving room for re-rating.
"I have some long-term positions in EWZ (MSCI Brazil ETF) and EWY (MSCI South Korea ETF)."
EWY LONG
long-term
HIGH
11:28
Jan 06
Jan 06
SLV
GLD
▾
Author regrets missing silver's rally from $62.88 to $82 and says he needs to 'adapt my trading style to ensure I capture more of the move' in precious metals, aligning with a bullish silver thesis.
Risk: Silver is more volatile than gold; the author's sizing issues in silver highlight the risk of large drawdowns in a choppy regime.
SLV WATCH
Author states 'I still believe we are in a multi‑year bull market in precious metals' and intends to adapt his trading to capture more of the move, implying continued bullish outlook for gold.
Risk: Gold could face headwinds from a stronger USD or rising real yields; the author's past tendency to take profits early suggests momentum may not be sustained.
GLD WATCH
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