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AI vibe shift, broad market views

Geo Chen · Fidenza Macro · July 14, 2026 at 06:24 · ⏱ 5 min read  | Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The AI trade is experiencing a vibe shift with deteriorating narratives on AI lab revenues and capex, leading the author to exit AI positions and expect a multi-month topping process. Simultaneously, rising oil prices due to renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and sticky inflation are reigniting stagflation fears, prompting the author to accumulate gold and hold cash while waiting for a potential risk pullback.
  • •Author exited entire AI portfolio due to a coming Minsky moment and vibe shift, and now sees narrative around AI lab revenues and capex deteriorating further.
  • •Meta is building a cloud business to rent out compute, increasing supply and challenging the narrative that compute is structurally supply constrained.
  • •OpenAI is considering delaying its IPO until next year, and its reliance on fundraises at ever-increasing valuations is struggling, which will trickle down to semiconductor supply chain.
  • •Samsung’s blockbuster earnings produced a news failure: stock sold off despite beating on revenues and earnings, now trading about 15% below the earnings release day level.
  • •Brent crude rallied from a low of 70 to 85 after the ceasefire in the Strait of Hormuz collapsed and Iran resumed attacks on vessels on July 9, the day of Khamenei’s state funeral.
  • •The author is accumulating gold into weakness as precious metals are bombed out, and believes the debasement narrative will return despite being currently out of favor.
Read time 5 min
Length 5,250 chars
Category finance
Ideas
Geo Chen Global macro trader; ex-head of FX trading, Credit Suisse
Author exited entire AI portfolio, sees multi-month topping process for AI semis and infra, and notes speculative excess that still needs to unwind. The deteriorating AI lab revenue and capex narrativ
Author exited entire AI portfolio, sees multi-month topping process for AI semis and infra, and notes speculative excess that still needs to unwind. The deteriorating AI lab revenue and capex narrative directly pressures NVIDIA as the dominant semi supplier. Risk: Potential rebound in AI demand or positive earnings surprise could reverse sentiment.
NVDA
Geo Chen Global macro trader; ex-head of FX trading, Credit Suisse
Article highlights Meta building a cloud business to rent out compute, increasing overall compute supply and challenging scarcity narrative. Also its Muse Spark 1.1 model falls short of top five on Co
Article highlights Meta building a cloud business to rent out compute, increasing overall compute supply and challenging scarcity narrative. Also its Muse Spark 1.1 model falls short of top five on Code Arena, indicating competitive pressure despite aggressive pricing. Risk: Meta's cloud rental business could become a new revenue stream, mitigating downside.
META
Geo Chen Global macro trader; ex-head of FX trading, Credit Suisse
Satya Nadella's article 'The Reverse Information Paradox' advocates enterprises bring models in-house rather than sharing data with closed frontier labs. This aligns with Microsoft's Azure and enterpr
Satya Nadella's article 'The Reverse Information Paradox' advocates enterprises bring models in-house rather than sharing data with closed frontier labs. This aligns with Microsoft's Azure and enterprise AI strategy, potentially benefiting as AI disperses across private stacks. Risk: Microsoft's close partnership with OpenAI could be a liability if OpenAI's fundraising struggles persist.
MSFT
Geo Chen Global macro trader; ex-head of FX trading, Credit Suisse
Alex Karp's public rant against closed frontier labs for offering questionable value and stealing corporate IP is cited as part of the vibe shift. This positions Palantir as an alternative for enterpr
Alex Karp's public rant against closed frontier labs for offering questionable value and stealing corporate IP is cited as part of the vibe shift. This positions Palantir as an alternative for enterprises seeking data control and in-house AI deployment. Risk: Karp's criticism could be self-serving; Palantir's own AI platform may face similar adoption challenges.
PLTR
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This newsletter, published July 14, 2026, features Geo Chen discussing NVDA, META, MSFT, PLTR. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Geo Chen  · Tickers: NVDA, META, MSFT, PLTR