Turning neutral on AI semis and infrastructure

Geo Chen · Fidenza Macro · June 23, 2026 at 10:15 · ⏱ 11 min read | Read on Substack ↗

Summary

Geo Chen turns neutral on AI semiconductors and infrastructure, selling his entire AI portfolio after a prophetic dream and a 10% plunge in South Korea's Kospi index. He cites five worsening headwinds—commoditization of AI models, safety regulation, user adoption hesitancy, excessive equity supply from IPOs and offerings, and a hawkish Fed—that together threaten the AI demand flywheel and support a near-term rotation away from AI-exposed equities.

•Kospi sold off 10% on June 23, 2026; memory chip makers Samsung and SK Hynix constitute 52% of the index, reflecting concentrated AI speculation.
•Chinese lab Zai released open-weight model GLM-5 with DSA (DeepSeek Sparse Attention) that rivals frontier models at lower cost.
•Sakana AI from Japan unveiled Fugu, a multi-agent orchestration system achieving near-Fable performance using novel RSI (Recursive Self-Improvement) methods.
•Silicon Data's token expenditure index has fallen sharply from its peak earlier in June, and Ornn's H100 rental price index shows a steep decline.
•Meta is considering additional equity offerings, Google has an existing equity offering, and both Anthropic and OpenAI have confidentially filed for IPOs, creating trillions in potential AI-themed equity supply.
•Fed Chair Warsh surprised markets with hawkish rhetoric, raising the probability of a rate hike by September, adding stagflation pressure to an already strained AI sector.

Read time 11 min

Length 11,500 chars

Category finance

Ideas

Geo Chen Global macro trader; ex-head of FX trading, Credit Suisse

Ornn's H100 rental price index 'looks way worse' and Silicon Data's H100 rental index also declining, signaling weakening demand for NVIDIA's flagship AI GPU and potentially lower forward revenue from

Ornn's H100 rental price index 'looks way worse' and Silicon Data's H100 rental index also declining, signaling weakening demand for NVIDIA's flagship AI GPU and potentially lower forward revenue from data center compute. Risk: If rental prices continue to fall, hyperscaler capex could slow, impacting NVDA's Data Center segment.

Geo Chen Global macro trader; ex-head of FX trading, Credit Suisse

SK Hynix is explicitly named as a dominant memory chip maker in the Kospi which sold off 10% due to AI speculation unwinding. The article implies that Korean AI 2x/3x ETF leverage is unwinding, direct

SK Hynix is explicitly named as a dominant memory chip maker in the Kospi which sold off 10% due to AI speculation unwinding. The article implies that Korean AI 2x/3x ETF leverage is unwinding, directly pressuring Hynix shares. Risk: Further liquidation of leveraged AI ETFs could exacerbate downside; Hynix is highly sensitive to HBM demand shifts.

Geo Chen Global macro trader; ex-head of FX trading, Credit Suisse

Samsung, alongside SK Hynix, makes up 52% of the Kospi index, and the article attributes the 10% selloff to AI speculation fueled by leveraged ETFs. The same unwind directly affects Samsung's memory b

Samsung, alongside SK Hynix, makes up 52% of the Kospi index, and the article attributes the 10% selloff to AI speculation fueled by leveraged ETFs. The same unwind directly affects Samsung's memory business. Risk: Samsung's AI exposure through HBM and DRAM makes it vulnerable to the same kapital flow reversal.

Geo Chen Global macro trader; ex-head of FX trading, Credit Suisse

Article states Meta is considering offering more equity to fund AI ambitions, adding to the 'too much equity supply' threat. Dilution risk weighs on META's valuation regardless of fundamentals.

Article states Meta is considering offering more equity to fund AI ambitions, adding to the 'too much equity supply' threat. Dilution risk weighs on META's valuation regardless of fundamentals. Risk: Actual equity offering could be larger than anticipated; market sentiment toward AI capex is souring.

Geo Chen Global macro trader; ex-head of FX trading, Credit Suisse

Google is explicitly named as having an equity offering, contributing to the trillions in AI-themed equity supply. This raises the risk of share dilution and reduces marginal demand for the stock.

Google is explicitly named as having an equity offering, contributing to the trillions in AI-themed equity supply. This raises the risk of share dilution and reduces marginal demand for the stock. Risk: Institutional positioning is already heavy; new supply could pressure multiples even if earnings hold.

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This newsletter, published June 23, 2026, features Geo Chen discussing NVDA, 000660.KS, 005930.KS, META, GOOGL. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Geo Chen · Tickers: NVDA, 000660.KS, 005930.KS, META, GOOGL