Geo Chen 3.9 15 ideas

TLDR
The author addresses a subscriber's concern about missing massive market moves when employing a short-term tactical swing trading strategy. He outlines core trading principles focused on reacting to price action rather than anticipating outcomes, emphasizing strict risk management and the pursuit of high-volatility, trending environments. • Reacting to market movements rather than anticipating them results in better expected outcomes and prevents staying in trades too long. • Traders must accept they will miss parts of some moves; forcing a trade out of FOMO after a move has happened is financially and mentally damaging. • Markets spend the majority of their time in choppy ranges; it is easier and more profitable to ride strong trends during the remaining one-third of the time. • It is crucial to distinguish between trading and investing to avoid letting a losing swing trade turn into a long-term investment. • A successful short-term strategy prioritizes a smooth PnL curve and positive expectancy per trade over catching every single large market swing.

April 07, 2026 at 12:12

TLDR
The author discusses the severe geopolitical risks posed by the Houthis joining the Middle East conflict and anticipated US military operations in Iran. Despite the grim macro outlook, the author views the resulting overly bearish market sentiment and positioning as a contrarian buying opportunity. • Houthi involvement threatens critical global shipping and energy routes through the Bab al-Mandab Strait. • US military operations in Iran are expected to commence soon, though specific objectives and timelines remain highly uncertain. • Equity positioning and sentiment indicators have retraced to neutral or bearish levels, removing the edge for short sellers. • The author believes seemingly hopeless scenarios often present the best buying opportunities and has flipped long on equity and bond futures.

March 30, 2026 at 07:25

TLDR
The author discusses the severe geopolitical risks posed by the Houthis joining the Middle East conflict and anticipated US military operations in Iran. Despite the grim macro outlook, the author views the resulting overly bearish market sentiment and positioning as a contrarian buying opportunity. • Houthi involvement threatens critical global shipping and energy routes through the Bab al-Mandab Strait. • US military operations in Iran are expected to commence soon, though specific objectives and timelines remain highly uncertain. • Equity positioning and sentiment indicators have retraced to neutral or bearish levels, removing the edge for short sellers. • The author believes seemingly hopeless scenarios often present the best buying opportunities and has flipped long on equity and bond futures.

March 30, 2026 at 07:25

TLDR
The author discusses the market volatility surrounding Trump's shifting stance on striking Iran's power infrastructure. Despite temporary relief rallies, the author remains bearish on equities and Treasuries, using the bounce to reload short positions in ES and TY futures. • Trump backed down from threats to strike Iran's power infrastructure, causing a temporary rally in stocks and a drop in oil. • The geopolitical reality remains unchanged with US troops en route, ongoing missile exchanges, and the Strait of Hormuz closed. • The author used the temporary market relief to close and subsequently reload short positions in ES and TY futures at better levels. • The author views the current rally in risk assets as a selling opportunity.

March 24, 2026 at 03:30

TLDR
The author discusses the market volatility surrounding Trump's shifting stance on striking Iran's power infrastructure. Despite temporary relief rallies, the author remains bearish on equities and Treasuries, using the bounce to reload short positions in ES and TY futures. • Trump backed down from threats to strike Iran's power infrastructure, causing a temporary rally in stocks and a drop in oil. • The geopolitical reality remains unchanged with US troops en route, ongoing missile exchanges, and the Strait of Hormuz closed. • The author used the temporary market relief to close and subsequently reload short positions in ES and TY futures at better levels. • The author views the current rally in risk assets as a selling opportunity.

March 24, 2026 at 03:30

TLDR
The author discusses the market impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, specifically involving the US and Iran. Despite a brief after-hours equity surge on comments about winding down military efforts, the author notes that escalation continues, supporting their bearish equity and bullish oil positions. • A social media post by Donald Trump about winding down Middle East military efforts caused a brief after-hours surge in the SPY ETF. • The author narrowly avoided being stopped out of short S&P 500 futures and long oil positions due to the timing of the market close. • Weekend developments, including threats to power grids and critical infrastructure, indicate the US and Iran are escalating tensions rather than winding down. • Iran has signaled intentions to use financial markets as a vector to inflict pain on the US.

March 23, 2026 at 04:45

TLDR
The author discusses the market impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, specifically involving the US and Iran. Despite a brief after-hours equity surge on comments about winding down military efforts, the author notes that escalation continues, supporting their bearish equity and bullish oil positions. • A social media post by Donald Trump about winding down Middle East military efforts caused a brief after-hours surge in the SPY ETF. • The author narrowly avoided being stopped out of short S&P 500 futures and long oil positions due to the timing of the market close. • Weekend developments, including threats to power grids and critical infrastructure, indicate the US and Iran are escalating tensions rather than winding down. • Iran has signaled intentions to use financial markets as a vector to inflict pain on the US.

March 23, 2026 at 04:45

TLDR
The author discusses a severe escalation in the Iran conflict, arguing that the market is underestimating the resulting disruptions to global energy, freight, and agricultural supply chains. In response to the heightened volatility and risk of a global economic shock, the author is leaning into the volatility by going long commodities and shorting equities, while raising cash in their long-term portfolio. • The conflict in Iran is intensifying, with significant disruptions expected for energy, freight, and fertilizer supply chains. • The US and Israel's actions have triggered an Iranian scorched earth campaign, putting severe economic and political pressure on the US administration. • A potential capitulation by the US might provide market relief, but Iran may continue to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz as leverage. • The author is actively trading the volatility, establishing long positions in oil, natural gas, and corn, while shorting S&P 500 futures. • In the long-term portfolio, the author is raising cash by exiting South Korea (EWY) and Global EM (EEM) equities, but holding Brazil (EWZ). • Bitcoin is showing relative strength and is being held as a long position alongside other hedges.

March 09, 2026 at 02:40

TLDR
The author discusses a severe escalation in the Iran conflict, arguing that the market is underestimating the resulting disruptions to global energy, freight, and agricultural supply chains. In response to the heightened volatility and risk of a global economic shock, the author is leaning into the volatility by going long commodities and shorting equities, while raising cash in their long-term portfolio. • The conflict in Iran is intensifying, with significant disruptions expected for energy, freight, and fertilizer supply chains. • The US and Israel's actions have triggered an Iranian scorched earth campaign, putting severe economic and political pressure on the US administration. • A potential capitulation by the US might provide market relief, but Iran may continue to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz as leverage. • The author is actively trading the volatility, establishing long positions in oil, natural gas, and corn, while shorting S&P 500 futures. • In the long-term portfolio, the author is raising cash by exiting South Korea (EWY) and Global EM (EEM) equities, but holding Brazil (EWZ). • Bitcoin is showing relative strength and is being held as a long position alongside other hedges.

March 09, 2026 at 02:40

TLDR
The author discusses a severe escalation in the Iran conflict, arguing that the market is underestimating the resulting disruptions to global energy, freight, and agricultural supply chains. In response to the heightened volatility and risk of a global economic shock, the author is leaning into the volatility by going long commodities and shorting equities, while raising cash in their long-term portfolio. • The conflict in Iran is intensifying, with significant disruptions expected for energy, freight, and fertilizer supply chains. • The US and Israel's actions have triggered an Iranian scorched earth campaign, putting severe economic and political pressure on the US administration. • A potential capitulation by the US might provide market relief, but Iran may continue to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz as leverage. • The author is actively trading the volatility, establishing long positions in oil, natural gas, and corn, while shorting S&P 500 futures. • In the long-term portfolio, the author is raising cash by exiting South Korea (EWY) and Global EM (EEM) equities, but holding Brazil (EWZ). • Bitcoin is showing relative strength and is being held as a long position alongside other hedges.

March 09, 2026 at 02:40

TLDR
The author discusses a severe escalation in the Iran conflict, arguing that the market is underestimating the resulting disruptions to global energy, freight, and agricultural supply chains. In response to the heightened volatility and risk of a global economic shock, the author is leaning into the volatility by going long commodities and shorting equities, while raising cash in their long-term portfolio. • The conflict in Iran is intensifying, with significant disruptions expected for energy, freight, and fertilizer supply chains. • The US and Israel's actions have triggered an Iranian scorched earth campaign, putting severe economic and political pressure on the US administration. • A potential capitulation by the US might provide market relief, but Iran may continue to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz as leverage. • The author is actively trading the volatility, establishing long positions in oil, natural gas, and corn, while shorting S&P 500 futures. • In the long-term portfolio, the author is raising cash by exiting South Korea (EWY) and Global EM (EEM) equities, but holding Brazil (EWZ). • Bitcoin is showing relative strength and is being held as a long position alongside other hedges.

March 09, 2026 at 02:40

TLDR
The author discusses a severe escalation in the Iran conflict, arguing that the market is underestimating the resulting disruptions to global energy, freight, and agricultural supply chains. In response to the heightened volatility and risk of a global economic shock, the author is leaning into the volatility by going long commodities and shorting equities, while raising cash in their long-term portfolio. • The conflict in Iran is intensifying, with significant disruptions expected for energy, freight, and fertilizer supply chains. • The US and Israel's actions have triggered an Iranian scorched earth campaign, putting severe economic and political pressure on the US administration. • A potential capitulation by the US might provide market relief, but Iran may continue to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz as leverage. • The author is actively trading the volatility, establishing long positions in oil, natural gas, and corn, while shorting S&P 500 futures. • In the long-term portfolio, the author is raising cash by exiting South Korea (EWY) and Global EM (EEM) equities, but holding Brazil (EWZ). • Bitcoin is showing relative strength and is being held as a long position alongside other hedges.

March 09, 2026 at 02:40

TLDR
The author discusses a severe escalation in the Iran conflict, arguing that the market is underestimating the resulting disruptions to global energy, freight, and agricultural supply chains. In response to the heightened volatility and risk of a global economic shock, the author is leaning into the volatility by going long commodities and shorting equities, while raising cash in their long-term portfolio. • The conflict in Iran is intensifying, with significant disruptions expected for energy, freight, and fertilizer supply chains. • The US and Israel's actions have triggered an Iranian scorched earth campaign, putting severe economic and political pressure on the US administration. • A potential capitulation by the US might provide market relief, but Iran may continue to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz as leverage. • The author is actively trading the volatility, establishing long positions in oil, natural gas, and corn, while shorting S&P 500 futures. • In the long-term portfolio, the author is raising cash by exiting South Korea (EWY) and Global EM (EEM) equities, but holding Brazil (EWZ). • Bitcoin is showing relative strength and is being held as a long position alongside other hedges.

March 09, 2026 at 02:40

TLDR
The author discusses a severe escalation in the Iran conflict, arguing that the market is underestimating the resulting disruptions to global energy, freight, and agricultural supply chains. In response to the heightened volatility and risk of a global economic shock, the author is leaning into the volatility by going long commodities and shorting equities, while raising cash in their long-term portfolio. • The conflict in Iran is intensifying, with significant disruptions expected for energy, freight, and fertilizer supply chains. • The US and Israel's actions have triggered an Iranian scorched earth campaign, putting severe economic and political pressure on the US administration. • A potential capitulation by the US might provide market relief, but Iran may continue to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz as leverage. • The author is actively trading the volatility, establishing long positions in oil, natural gas, and corn, while shorting S&P 500 futures. • In the long-term portfolio, the author is raising cash by exiting South Korea (EWY) and Global EM (EEM) equities, but holding Brazil (EWZ). • Bitcoin is showing relative strength and is being held as a long position alongside other hedges.

March 09, 2026 at 02:40