America's political economy is pretty bleak right now
Noah Smith
· Noahpinion
· July 18, 2026 at 10:30
· ⏱ 7 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
Noah Smith argues that despite rare bipartisan wins like the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, America's political economy is fractured among MAGA right, socialist left, and woke left—none with workable economic programs. The Spanish Civil War analogy underscores a bleak outlook for major policy, meaning markets should expect continued gridlock and no sweeping reforms.
•The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act passed with bipartisan majorities despite Trump's veto, including YIMBY-friendly provisions like expedited environmental review and prefab deregulation.
•The bill included a 'slopulist' restriction on corporate landlords buying single-family homes, which Smith calls based on a myth—corporate landlords are a tiny market share and may reduce rents.
•Smith invokes Matt Yglesias' 'Secret Congress' theory: legislators want to do good but are constrained by partisan electorates; low-profile bills can pass, but bold programs like FDR or Reagan cannot.
•Three major political movements (MAGA right, socialist left, woke left) all have poor economic programs and are distracted by culture-war conflicts.
•Smith uses the Spanish Civil War analogy (1936-1939) to argue that none of America's factions has a workable governing program, leading to dysfunction and stagnation.