Calls
12
#275
Alpha Score 72.9
Asymmetrical Bets
Substack author, Asymmetrical Bets
Win Rate
41.7%
return
+3.0%
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Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
Mar 26
$53.46
+63.4%
Soitec holds a >95% market share in photonics-grade SOI wafers essential for AI optical interconnects, which are projected to grow from $14B to $73B by 2030. Despite current depressed revenue from mob
Soitec holds a >95% market share in photonics-grade SOI wafers essential for AI optical interconnects, which are projected to grow from $14B to $73B by 2030. Despite current depressed revenue from mobile/auto cycles, the company's monopoly in a key AI infrastructure substrate offers asymmetric upside.
Foundry Equipment
Long
Jul 08
$113.72
-10.6%
The 47% selloff is overdone due to misinterpretation of ATM dilution and margin decline; fundamentals remain strong with record revenue, $449M cash, and large orders from Amazon.
The 47% selloff is overdone due to misinterpretation of ATM dilution and margin decline; fundamentals remain strong with record revenue, $449M cash, and large orders from Amazon.
AI Photonics
Long
Jun 25
$19.48
+7.9%
Sony is mispriced as a conglomerate; its gaming division will capture significant revenue from GTA VI through digital storefront fees, PSN subscriptions, and online microtransaction cuts, yet the mark
Sony is mispriced as a conglomerate; its gaming division will capture significant revenue from GTA VI through digital storefront fees, PSN subscriptions, and online microtransaction cuts, yet the market values it as a slow-moving holding company.
Gaming & Entertainment
Long
May 25
$15.20
-22.0%
Harmonic is a software monopoly with 95% market share in virtualized CMTS, benefiting from the mandatory DOCSIS 4.0 upgrade cycle and growing AI bandwidth demand, with accelerating revenue, margin exp
Harmonic is a software monopoly with 95% market share in virtualized CMTS, benefiting from the mandatory DOCSIS 4.0 upgrade cycle and growing AI bandwidth demand, with accelerating revenue, margin expansion, and a pending divestiture that will transform it into a pure-play broadband software company.
AI Photonics
Long
Apr 29
$181.80
-5.6%
The author believes Qualcomm is an undervalued legacy chipmaker that is poised for an "AI re-rating" after securing a hyperscaler customer, presenting an asymmetrical upside opportunity.
The author believes Qualcomm is an undervalued legacy chipmaker that is poised for an "AI re-rating" after securing a hyperscaler customer, presenting an asymmetrical upside opportunity.
AI ASIC
Long
Apr 20
$33.41
-56.5%
AVEX is a mispriced pure-play drone stock trading at 4.5x forward sales vs faster-growing peers; catalysts from sell-side coverage initiation, execution on $800M+ 2026 revenue, and eventual multiple e
AVEX is a mispriced pure-play drone stock trading at 4.5x forward sales vs faster-growing peers; catalysts from sell-side coverage initiation, execution on $800M+ 2026 revenue, and eventual multiple expansion to peer levels could drive 74% to 434% upside.
Defense
Long
Apr 17
$41.03
-3.8%
Aixtron dominates MOCVD reactors for growing indium phosphide lasers used in AI data center optical transceivers. It trades at 36x EV/EBITDA vs Besi at 82x, with net cash and rising guidance, offering
Aixtron dominates MOCVD reactors for growing indium phosphide lasers used in AI data center optical transceivers. It trades at 36x EV/EBITDA vs Besi at 82x, with net cash and rising guidance, offering multiple expansion potential as demand for InP epitaxial capacity surges.
Foundry Equipment
Long
Apr 17
$11.10
+35.1%
LPKF's LIDE process enables precise glass substrate drilling for advanced chip packaging, a critical enabler for next-gen AI accelerators. Currently unprofitable with ~€100M revenue, but if glass subs
LPKF's LIDE process enables precise glass substrate drilling for advanced chip packaging, a critical enabler for next-gen AI accelerators. Currently unprofitable with ~€100M revenue, but if glass substrates win, revenue could reach €250M with 25% EBITDA margin, offering 4-10x upside from current levels. Binary risk but asymmetric reward.
Foundry Equipment
Long
Mar 23
$406.13
+107.6%
Author added to Micron position after market sold off record earnings, betting on continued HBM demand from Nvidia's massive GPU factory buildout and the memory supercycle driven by inference workload
Author added to Micron position after market sold off record earnings, betting on continued HBM demand from Nvidia's massive GPU factory buildout and the memory supercycle driven by inference workloads.
AI Memory
Long
Mar 11
$10.23
-42.7%
Kraken Robotics is the key beneficiary of the Iran mine-laying crisis due to its dominant technology in mine-hunting sonar, batteries, and the Covelya acquisition making it a near-monopoly subsea dron
Kraken Robotics is the key beneficiary of the Iran mine-laying crisis due to its dominant technology in mine-hunting sonar, batteries, and the Covelya acquisition making it a near-monopoly subsea drone supplier.
Robotics
Long
Mar 08
$100.45
+0.1%
Author is reducing equity exposure and parking 20% in SGOV as a cash buffer to protect downside and provide optionality amid geopolitical uncertainty and a potential macro pivot.
Author is reducing equity exposure and parking 20% in SGOV as a cash buffer to protect downside and provide optionality amid geopolitical uncertainty and a potential macro pivot.
Bonds & Rates
Long
Mar 04
$6.67
-37.3%
Kraken's acquisition of Covelya creates a monopoly in subsea drone components, tripling revenue, deeply improving valuation multiples, and making the stock accretive despite dilution; the author expli
Kraken's acquisition of Covelya creates a monopoly in subsea drone components, tripling revenue, deeply improving valuation multiples, and making the stock accretive despite dilution; the author explicitly plans to add on any pullback.
Robotics
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Asymmetrical Bets has 12 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 12 tickers since March 2026. Ranked #275 on the Buzzberg Alpha leaderboard. Most covered: SOI, QCOM, AAOI.
