These 5 European Photonics Stocks Trade At A Fraction Of Their U.S. Peers

Asymmetrical Bets · Asymmetrical Bets · April 17, 2026 at 04:28 · ⏱ 10 min read | Read on Substack ↗

Summary

European photonics stocks (Aixtron, Soitec, LPKF Laser) are undervalued relative to US peers like Besi and ASML because of cyclical issues unrelated to AI, but they serve critical roles in the AI optical supply chain. As the market re-rates them toward US multiples, returns of 3-10x are possible, making this an asymmetric bet on the photonics/co-packaged optics ramp.

•Aixtron has >90% market share in MOCVD reactors for indium phosphide laser growth, with Nvidia locking up EML capacity through 2027, driving demand for its tools.
•Soitec’s Photonics-SOI wafers are used by TSMC, GlobalFoundries, and Tower Semiconductor for silicon photonics chips; it trades at 14x EV/EBITDA vs Besi’s 82x despite a medium-term target of €2B revenue at 40% EBITDA margin.
•LPKF’s proprietary LIDE process enables glass substrates for advanced chip packaging, with Intel, Samsung, and TSMC evaluating the technology; currently unprofitable but positioned for an inflection.
•The article compares valuation multiples: Aixtron at ~36x EV/EBITDA, Soitec at ~14x, LPKF at ~416x (pre-revenue), vs Besi at 82x and ASML at 36x.
•The basket of five stocks (only three detailed) is presented as 'slept on European companies' doing the same critical work as US peers but priced at a fraction, with potential 3-10x returns from multiple expansion.

Read time 10 min

Length 10,282 chars

Category finance

Trade Ideas

Asymmetrical Bets Substack author, Asymmetrical Bets

Article uses Besi (at 82x EV/EBITDA) as the high-multiple benchmark for advanced packaging; the thesis hinges on European photonics stocks re-rating toward Besi’s multiple. This indirectly validates B

Article uses Besi (at 82x EV/EBITDA) as the high-multiple benchmark for advanced packaging; the thesis hinges on European photonics stocks re-rating toward Besi’s multiple. This indirectly validates Besi’s premium valuation and its positioning as the leader in the space. Risk: If the European names re-rate, it doesn't change Besi’s own fundamentals; the comparison could also highlight overvaluation risk.

Asymmetrical Bets Substack author, Asymmetrical Bets

Soitec supplies Photonics-SOI wafers that underpin silicon photonics chips from TSMC, GlobalFoundries, and Tower Semiconductor. Currently at 14x EV/EBITDA due to cyclical trough in RF-SOI, while its A

Soitec supplies Photonics-SOI wafers that underpin silicon photonics chips from TSMC, GlobalFoundries, and Tower Semiconductor. Currently at 14x EV/EBITDA due to cyclical trough in RF-SOI, while its AI-driven Photonics-SOI business grows 11% organically. Target of €2B revenue with 40% EBITDA margin implies multi-bagger upside on re-rating.

Asymmetrical Bets Substack author, Asymmetrical Bets

Aixtron dominates MOCVD reactors for growing indium phosphide lasers used in AI data center optical transceivers. It trades at 36x EV/EBITDA vs Besi at 82x, with net cash and rising guidance, offering

Aixtron dominates MOCVD reactors for growing indium phosphide lasers used in AI data center optical transceivers. It trades at 36x EV/EBITDA vs Besi at 82x, with net cash and rising guidance, offering multiple expansion potential as demand for InP epitaxial capacity surges.

Asymmetrical Bets Substack author, Asymmetrical Bets

LPKF's LIDE process enables precise glass substrate drilling for advanced chip packaging, a critical enabler for next-gen AI accelerators. Currently unprofitable with ~€100M revenue, but if glass subs

LPKF's LIDE process enables precise glass substrate drilling for advanced chip packaging, a critical enabler for next-gen AI accelerators. Currently unprofitable with ~€100M revenue, but if glass substrates win, revenue could reach €250M with 25% EBITDA margin, offering 4-10x upside from current levels. Binary risk but asymmetric reward.

Asymmetrical Bets Substack author, Asymmetrical Bets

Article names Lumentum as the only supplier shipping 200G-per-lane EMLs at volume, with Nvidia strategically locking up their capacity through 2027. This validates strong and extended demand for Lumen

Article names Lumentum as the only supplier shipping 200G-per-lane EMLs at volume, with Nvidia strategically locking up their capacity through 2027. This validates strong and extended demand for Lumentum’s lasers, which are a key end-market for Aixtron’s tools. Risk: Customer concentration on Nvidia; any slowdown in AI capex could affect orders.

Asymmetrical Bets Substack author, Asymmetrical Bets

Article states TSMC’s COUPE silicon photonics platform runs on Soitec’s Photonics-SOI substrates, and Soitec joined TSMC-led industry alliance. This implies TSMC is deepening its silicon photonics inf

Article states TSMC’s COUPE silicon photonics platform runs on Soitec’s Photonics-SOI substrates, and Soitec joined TSMC-led industry alliance. This implies TSMC is deepening its silicon photonics infrastructure, benefiting from the same AI-driven optical interconnect demand. Risk: TSMC’s massive scale means Soitec exposure is small relative to TSMC’s overall business; upside is more thematic than direct.

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This newsletter, published April 17, 2026, features Asymmetrical Bets discussing BESI, SOI, AIXA.DE, LPK.DE, LITE, TSM. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Asymmetrical Bets · Tickers: BESI, SOI, AIXA.DE, LPK.DE, LITE, TSM